The Chris Davis Projection Thread

This one should be interesting....

I wish .850-.950 was an option. That would have been my choice. As it stands, I went with a projection in the upper .800's.

Excellent article on CNN/SI on why Chris Davis may even improve next year. Points made, his hit dispersion. Not only is he able to hit HR to all fields, he's hitting to all fields generally. Despite the fact that teams continue to play a shift on him. The author thinks Chris has developed into a good hitter, double digit walk rate and top 25 OBP will help maintain his BA and OBP .

Excellent article on CNN/SI on why Chris Davis will not regress significantly. Points made, his hit dispersion. Not only is he able to hit HR to all fields, he's hitting to all fields generally. Despite the fact that teams continue to play a shift on him. The author thinks Chris has developed into a good hittet, his BA and OBP should not suffer significantly.

Chris is definitely a better hitter now than he was in 2012, stats aside. He still gets some holes in his swing at times, and has trouble laying off or handling certain pitches (breaking balls down and in off the plate, fastballs up and in). But, he is more selective than he used to be. His walk rate was way up last year, partly because pitchers feared him, but in large part because he learned not to swing at certain pitches.

I expect significant regression. I'm gonna say something like .825, which is still a solid player but until I see another year of superstar performance I'm convinced last year was an aberration. I hope to see better than my predictions though.

I have a dream.... a dream for MVP

Chris is definitely a better hitter now than he was in 2012, stats aside. He still gets some holes in his swing at times, and has trouble laying off or handling certain pitches (breaking balls down and in off the plate, fastballs up and in). But, he is more selective than he used to be. His walk rate was way up last year, partly because pitchers feared him, but in large part because he learned not to swing at certain pitches.

I agree he has become better hitter and is putting up walk rates closer to what he showed in the minors. That said I still have him falling below 1.000 Ops. I still see him putting up close to 4 WAR.

Chris Davis OPS by month

Apr 1.171May 1.210Jun 1.028Jul  .794Aug 1.054Sep  .755

I honestly can't see how it's not over .900

Low 900 OPS, something like 920.

Chris Davis OPS by month

Apr 1.171May 1.210Jun 1.028Jul  .794Aug 1.054Sep  .755

I honestly can't see how it's not over .900

Me neither, but somebody thinks it will be under .800.

Night Baseball. Threes and nines are wild. .939.

I honestly can't see how it's not over .900

His HR/Flyball and BABIP were very high in the 1st half of the season. I think his 2nd half is more in line with his true production. That's still a high .800s OPS player. My guess is .890.

His HR/Flyball and BABIP were very high in the 1st half of the season. I think his 2nd half is more in line with his true production. That's still a high .800s OPS player. My guess is .890.

How many homers do you project? I plugged in 45 and got an OPS over .900. Do you think his HR/flyball will result in less home runs than 45?

how many homers do you project? I plugged in 45 and got an ops over .900. Do you think his hr/flyball will result in less home runs than 45?

Chris Davis OPS by month

Apr 1.171May 1.210Jun 1.028Jul  .794Aug 1.054Sep  .755

I honestly can't see how it's not over .900

In 2012 it was .922, .829 , .659, .701, .749, 1.057.

So out of his last 12 months in the majors five have been under .800, and another in the low .800s. Yet you can't imagine a season's OPS under .900?

I picked .800-.850, but I'm more confident that he'll have at least one month around .700, and another around 1.000.