(Almost) All Things Manny Machado....

Started June with an OPS of .612, bottomed out on June 11 at .595, now he's back up to .712 on the season after tonight!

Manny is at .744 after tonight (peaked on July 18 at .757). His July OPS is 1.007 thus far

I was looking for where I commented on his ceiling in the Manny Machado Ceiling thread, but I think they were all merged. I thought he would average between 20 and 25 homers per season, touching 30 once or twice. I hope I'm not overreacting to the big walk-off tonight, but I could see him potentially crossing the 40 plateau once in his prime (age 28 - 32) seasons. He's not small, but he's pretty slim and has some room to fill out. That being said, I've seen him hit quite a few home runs this season-including tonight's-that aren't necessarily rockets off the bat, rather they are towering fly balls that just keep going. I thought tonight's homer looked a bit like a deep fly out for Manny (would think HR for Davis and Cruz).

I don't think it's that outlandish. This season he is on a pace that would equate to 24 home runs over 150 games, and that is with his slow start/no ST/coming off injury. On a side note (related to his overall ceiling), he seems to be a more patient hitter at the plate this season. Beyond simply my own anecdotal observations, his walk rate is up to 6.2%. While this isn't a huge number, it's certainly an increase from his prior year numbers: 4.5% (2012) and 4.1% (2013).

A question to the big-time advanced stats guys, particularly those who are known for running queries based on player profiles (Drungo?)... It appears that Manny is going to soar past 10 career WAR this season in both fWAR (currently 9.4) and rWAR (9.7). What is the career outlook for players who accumulate at least 10 WAR through their age 21 season?

A cool article on Manny by... ESPN?!?

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sweetspot&id=50184

Cruz carried us in April/May, Pearce in June/July. My bet, Manny in Aug/Sept.

A cool article on Manny by... ESPN?!?

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sweetspot&id=50184

It was nice. A Sweetspot.

A question to the big-time advanced stats guys, particularly those who are known for running queries based on player profiles (Drungo?)... It appears that Manny is going to soar past 10 career WAR this season in both fWAR (currently 9.4) and rWAR (9.7). What is the career outlook for players who accumulate at least 10 WAR through their age 21 season?

Everyone who had 10+ rWAR through age 21:

                                                                                                                                                          Rk           Player Year WAR/pos From   To   Age   G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS      Pos      Tm1        Mike Trout 2013    20.3 2011 2013 19-21 336 1490 1271 258 399  72 17 62 196 186  14 305  17  0 16  17 86 12 .314 .404 .544  .948  *87/9DH     LAA2      Andruw Jones 1998    10.9 1996 1998 19-21 343 1211 1087 160 273  58 10 54 173 103  10 265   8  6  7  22 50 15 .251 .319 .472  .791   *89/H7     ATL3    Alex Rodriguez 1997    14.4 1994 1997 18-21 352 1523 1384 260 435 100  6 64 228 109   2 265   9 12  9  29 51 12 .314 .366 .534  .900    *6/HD     SEA4       Ken Griffey 1991    15.5 1989 1991 19-21 436 1805 1600 228 478  93  8 60 241 178  41 246   5  5 17  26 50 24 .299 .367 .479  .847    *8/HD     SEA5      Cesar Cedeno 1972    11.8 1970 1972 19-21 390 1651 1525 234 450 100 18 39 205  96  12 221  10  7 13  28 92 34 .295 .338 .461  .799  *8/97H3     HOU6      Johnny Bench 1969    10.6 1967 1969 19-21 328 1292 1182 157 325  66  4 42 178  85  15 201   6  3 16  25  7 12 .275 .323 .444  .767     *2/H     CIN7       Vada Pinson 1960    12.4 1958 1960 19-21 335 1523 1396 258 418  91 21 41 153 113   6 212   7  5  1  21 55 19 .299 .355 .483  .837   *8/97H     CIN8    Frank Robinson 1957    13.4 1956 1957 20-21 302 1344 1183 219 363  56 11 67 158 108  12 187  32 13  9  27 18  6 .307 .378 .543  .920   *7/83H     CIN9         Al Kaline 1956    15.4 1953 1956 18-21 473 1939 1737 268 540  74 21 59 275 175  16 162   7  8 12  45 23 14 .311 .374 .480  .853   *9/8H7     DET10    Mickey Mantle 1953    13.2 1951 1953 19-21 365 1552 1351 260 398  72 15 57 244     197 275   0     4  10 20 12 .295 .384 .497  .881 *89/H675     NYY11    Eddie Mathews 1953    10.6 1952 1953 20-21 302 1274 1107 190 303  54 13 72 193     158 198   3     6  15  7  7 .274 .366 .541  .907     *5/H BSN-MLN12     Ted Williams 1940    13.0 1939 1940 20-21 293 1336 1126 265 378  87 25 54 258     203 118   5     4  23  6  5 .336 .439 .601 1.041   *97/H1     BOS13     Arky Vaughan 1933    10.8 1932 1933 20-21 281 1210 1070 156 338  44 29 13 158     103  49  11    26   9    13 .316 .382 .448  .829     *6/H     PIT14          Mel Ott 1930    17.9 1926 1930 17-21 539 2064 1724 359 570 106 14 86 370     282 127  10        44    21 .331 .428 .558  .986 *9/H7845     NYG15      Jimmie Foxx 1929    13.8 1925 1929 17-21 364 1302 1088 241 372  61 25 49 222     178 131   4        31 15 17 .342 .436 .579 1.015  *3/5H29     PHA16   Rogers Hornsby 1917    14.4 1915 1917 19-21 302 1199 1075 154 340  43 32 14 135      87 103   8        30 34  2 .316 .372 .455  .827  *6/53H4     STL17          Ty Cobb 1908    15.7 1905 1908 18-21 439 1835 1694 249 549  85 39 11 276      87 160  14        40   117 .324 .362 .440  .802    *9/87     DET18     Sherry Magee 1906    12.0 1904 1906 19-21 404 1686 1530 228 440  75 37 14 222     110 140  15        31   114 .288 .341 .412  .754   *7/983     PHI

I think most reasonably serious baseball fans should be familiar with almost everyone on this list, as most of them are in Cooperstown. Of the ones who aren't:

Cesar Cedeno certainly looked like a HOFer through 26 or 27, but tailed off, I think becasue of injuries. In any case, his 52.7 rWAR is better than many actual HOFers.

Pinson's career was similar to Cedeno's, with 46 rWAR through 28, but only about 8 afterwards. Career value of 54 is better than a number of HOFers.

And Sherry Magee may have been better, relative to his peers, than either Cedeno or Pinson. His raw numbers aren't that impressive because he played in the deadball era, but had some very, very good years and a career 137 OPS+ (98th all time). In 1910 he led the NL in BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+/total bases/RBI.

Most of you are familiar with Andruw Jones, who was a better version of the three guys I just described - great 20s before fading, but an even higher total.

So the floor for a position player with 10 rWAR through 21 is currently "has a plausible case for the HOF". Every single player who reached that threshold had a very long, very productive career.

Everyone who had 10+ rWAR through age 21:

That is awesome information, thanks. Really glad that Manny has turned it back around, now if we could just get Chris Davis hitting.

Cruz carried us in April/May, Pearce in June/July. My bet, Manny in Aug/Sept.

And Jones all year?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>You know the drill O’s fans: <a href="http://t.co/Fw9yK5qjom">http://t.co/Fw9yK5qjom</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/masnOrioles?src=hash">#masnOrioles</a> <a href="http://t.co/c5mFkZYC9w">http://t.co/c5mFkZYC9w</a></p>— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) <a href="

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Staying in the moment,

Machado enjoyed his first career walk-off homer.

"It was a blast," he said. "Once I hit it, I knew it was out. At that point, it was just excitement running through my body. The first one, got it out the way.

"I got chills rounding the bases. I'm just excited, but we'll put this behind us and let's go on tomorrow."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2014/07/leftovers-for-breakfast-25.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

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Manny Machado Will Help O's Win A.L. East

(By David Schoenfield)

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/50184/manny-machado-will-help-os-win-east

Kid sure knows how to finish games.

Another nice game for Manny. Sick play to get Pujols. My jaw was dropped watching that. Just amazing the plays he makes and makes them look easy. I don't know what's more impressive. His range or his arm.

Two awesome plays tonight that very few players in baseball, if any at all, are able to make.

I'm not sure anyone else could currently make that throw from 5 steps on the other side of foul territory.

Two base runners wiped out and one in a crucial spot in the 9th by his stellar play.

[video=youtube;eRQSECBxK8s]

This was posted in this Deadspin article about his 4th inning throw... I'm not saying it's a perfect match, but it's sort of a perfect match...