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  1. #1
    isestrex's Avatar
    isestrex is offline Plus Member Since 08/06 All-Star Reputation
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    A look at The Second Half of the "second half" of the schedule.

    Everyone remembers Buster Olney's column heading into the All Star Break where he ranked the Orioles 1st in toughest schedules. However, Buster missed the key takeaway from the Orioles schedule: the Orioles post-ASB schedule was split into 2 halves.... contenders early, and bottom dwellers last (as I tried to spell out in this thread).

    The Orioles are now in that latter half of their post-ASG schedule.
    Having gone 15-8 through the difficult portion of their schedule, the Orioles now face mostly division rivals and fluff from the rest of the league.

    Remaining Schedule Facts:
    • Of the remaining 45 games in the 2014 season, 29 are against divisional opponents.
    • The remaining divisional opponents combined winning % is .499.
    • The Orioles have a .596 winning % against the AL East
    • Of the 5 remaining series against non-divisional opponents, only one features a team over .500 (the Reds, 60-58).
    • The combined winning % of the non-divisional opponents (CLE, CHW, CHC, MIN, CIN) is .470.
    • The Orioles will only face 2 opponents with a winning % over .508 the rest of the season: Yankees and Blue Jays.
    • There are 16 remaining games against the Yankees and Blue Jays.
    • The Yankees remaining opponent winning % is .510 thanks to a couple series left against the Tigers and Royals (and Orioles).
    • The Blue Jays face less difficult divisional opponents but have the highest opposing winning % outside of the division of the three AL East teams with 9 games against Seattle and Milwaukee.

    CHART:
    Code:
           TOT    DIV   O-DIV  
    BAL   .489   .499   .470
    TOR   .504   .505   .501
    NYY   .510   .515   .497


  2. #2
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    The Orioles will finish with 93-95 wins. Toronto and New York will both finish with anywhere from 80 to 87 wins. Chris Davis will finish with at least 33 home runs. Machado will finish with a .290 average. The Orioles will have home field advantage in the ALDS against the Central division winner, which will go down to the wire.

    My 2nd half-2nd half predictions

  3. #3
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    I like it....except we seem to play up to, or down to, the competition. Let's hope we can steamroll them.

  4. #4
    Frobby is offline Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Bottom line: if we don't win the division and at least 93-94 games, we will have nobody to blame but ourselves. We put ourselves into a fantastic position over the last three and a half weeks by beating a bunch of really good teams. Now the job is simple: don't give away the tremendous advantage the team gained.

  5. #5
    Mayor McCheese's Avatar
    Mayor McCheese is offline Plus Member Since 12/12 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    Bottom line: if we don't win the division and at least 93-94 games, we will have nobody to blame but ourselves. We put ourselves into a fantastic position over the last three and a half weeks by beating a bunch of really good teams. Now the job is simple: don't give away the tremendous advantage the team gained.
    It's funny that 2-3 weeks ago everyone was like oh "85-87" wins would win the division and that OAK/LAA and SEA were going to be the 2 WC teams.

    Now its looking like 90+ to win the division and the second wild card team.

  6. #6
    Frobby is offline Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayor McCheese View Post
    It's funny that 2-3 weeks ago everyone was like oh "85-87" wins would win the division and that OAK/LAA and SEA were going to be the 2 WC teams.

    Now its looking like 90+ to win the division and the second wild card team.
    I never, ever thought it would take less than 90 to win the division. However, the Blue Jays are on pace for 86 wins, so I suppose 87 might be enough to win. I don't expect Buck's Orioles to leave things to chance. They're on a 93-win pace and I think given our schedule we should win at least that many. We definitely want some distance between ourselves and NY/TOR going into the last week of the season, when we play 7 road games against those two teams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayor McCheese View Post
    It's funny that 2-3 weeks ago everyone was like oh "85-87" wins would win the division and that OAK/LAA and SEA were going to be the 2 WC teams.

    Now its looking like 90+ to win the division and the second wild card team.
    To just reach 90 wins both the Jays and Yankees pretty much have to win every single remaining series. I don't see any of them winning more than 87.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonesy10 View Post
    To just reach 90 wins both the Jays and Yankees pretty much have to win every single remaining series. I don't see any of them winning more than 87.
    I am not saying the Jays/Yanks will win the division. We should win the division no problem with 90-92 wins.

    I see one the Jays/Yanks with around 87 wins and getting the 2nd WC spot. KC will flame out.

  9. #9
    UpstateNYfan is offline Plus Member Since 01/11 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    I want to clinch before going into Toronto the last weekend of the series. A couple of questions.

    If the O's and Yanks or Jays have the same record after 162 games. Also, let's say the second wild card team (let's say Mariners) has the same record. Does the loser of the AL East then have another sudden death game against the Mariners to earn the right to play the #1 WC, let's say the Angels?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    I never, ever thought it would take less than 90 to win the division. However, the Blue Jays are on pace for 86 wins, so I suppose 87 might be enough to win. I don't expect Buck's Orioles to leave things to chance. They're on a 93-win pace and I think given our schedule we should win at least that many. We definitely want some distance between ourselves and NY/TOR going into the last week of the season, when we play 7 road games against those two teams.
    It would be nice to clinch the division in Baltimore in front of a full house of O's fans. We'd have to play pretty well going into that final road trip to do that though.

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