I had an epiphany about Chris Davis and Adderall this morning

In trying to analyze whether Chris Davis merely had a poor season from which he can hopefully bounce back, one of the big issues is whether he's capable of hitting well without taking Adderall, assuming he can't requalify for a therapeutic use exemption (TUE).

This morning I was reading the thread on Hardy's Gold Glove, and one of the posters was complimenting Davis' ability to scoop throws out of the dirt to save errors for our infield. That's when it dawned on me:

If the principal effect of Adderall is to improve focus and concentration, it really should help defense more than offense. And Davis showed no drop-off in his defense at all last year.

I've played a lot of baseball, and coached a lot of baseball, and so have many of you. Think about it: when is it harder to maintain your concentration and focus -- when you are at bat, or when you are in the field? In my experience, it's not even close. It's much, much harder to stay focused on defense, with all the time standing around and the probability that the ball is not likely to come your way on any given pitch. And following a batted ball, especially a grounder, and following a bouncing throw, require a ton of concentration.

Therefore, if Davis' dropoff in offensive performance last year were principally due to having stopped taking Adderall, I'd expect to see an even bigger dropoff in his defense. But there was no sign whatsoever that Davis' defense dropped off last year.. By any defensive measure, he was as good as ever, maybe a little better.

For that reason, I'm no longer very concerned that Chris' offensive drop last year was principally related to not taking Adderall, and therefore "permanent" if he can't use the drug this year. I think his offensive problems came from other sources and hopefully he can figure those out and rebound in 2015.

Of course, if Davis was violating the PED policy all through 2013 and 2014, and now has to stop after failing two tests, then brace yourself for a big defensive dropoff in 2015.

I think there is a good chance Davis applies for and gets a TUE for Adderall this coming season. Carlos Ruiz did it after his suspension.

http://www.nj.com/phillies/index.ssf/2014/02/carlos_ruiz_--_with_adderall_exemption_by_mlb_--_hoping_for_bounce_back_season_with_phillies.html

He was on Adderall last year at least long enough to get caught. I dont think it makes sense to blame his performa?ce on not being on it--he was on it. My impression is something else was causing it (injury?) And he took the Adderall in desperation to help with whatever else was going on.

I thought I read somewhere that he had an exemption in 2012 but not 2013 & 2014. Is that right? Maybe we are assuming he was on it in 2013.

I don't think this is a bad theory, but none of us (or at least very few of us in all likelihood) have ever faced nasty MLB pitching. High school, college, and rec league pitching, by and large, stinks, unless you've happened to face a guy that was about to get or just got drafted out of one of those leagues in the first round.

Aristotelian makes a good point, too. He was obviously ON Adderall last year, which is how/why he got caught taking it.

I have been thinking about this as well. And true, if those pitches coming in were tough for him to pick up, some of those throws being gunned over by Machado, Hardy and Schoop should also have been a bit of "a blur" to him as well.

Adderall is considered to have a high likelihood for dependence and withdrawal symptoms, though. Users report that it helps you to block out all outside interference and focus on the task at hand, which is probably the effect of the amphetamines. But I wonder if Davis' initial struggles once he stopped were related to his withdrawal from the drug, and then later once those subsided, his simply thinking, "I can't hit without it." Baseball players are one of the most superstitious groups of people out there, and any break in routine can really get inside their heads.

I try and stay optismistic when it comes to Orioles and our guys.

I really like Chris and really want him to bounce back from this.

But, for some reason, my brain doesn't agree and I don't think we will see this happen.

For this I long to be wrong.

I'm not sure I agree with the premise, simply because I don't think Davis said it was about his ability to concentrate on the game situations per se. His main problem was in being able to recognize and key in on pitches, saying that it was like trying to hit a blur. So it wasn't about paying attention so much as being able to react, and the reaction time for hitting a baseball is fractional compared to digging a throw out of the dirt.

I'm not sure I agree with the premise, simply because I don't think Davis said it was about his ability to concentrate on the game situations per se. His main problem was in being able to recognize and key in on pitches, saying that it was like trying to hit a blur. So it wasn't about paying attention so much as being able to react, and the reaction time for hitting a baseball is fractional compared to digging a throw out of the dirt.

I think he will be fine. And then after this season, gone.

I think he will be fine. And then after this season, gone.

Possibly. A lot of circumstances can change in a year. We'll see how much value he rebuilds versus how much it costs to keep him.

A lot will be revealed in 2015 regarding Chris Davis.

If nothing else, stop chewing the tobacco!

Am I correct in thinking that the Orioles will not know whether or not he's received a TUE?

As much as I enjoy Chris being an Oriole, it's tough to predict what he'll add to the team in 2015. If DD can add a good outfielder or 1B, he may try to unload CD the same way he traded JJ last season via a trade for almost nothing to a team outside the division just before the non-tender deadline.

Am I correct in thinking that the Orioles will not know whether or not he's received a TUE?

As much as I enjoy Chris being an Oriole, it's tough to predict what he'll add to the team in 2015. If DD can add a good outfielder or 1B, he may try to unload CD the same way he traded JJ last season via a trade for almost nothing to a team outside the division just before the non-tender deadline.

I have no real knowledge. This is from WADA, which MLB modeled.

What happens if an athlete is granted a TUE?

TUEs are granted for a specific medication with a defined dosage. They are also granted for a specific period of time and do expire. The athlete needs to comply with all the treatment conditions outlined in the TUE Application.

Once a TUE has been granted by an International Federation (IF) or National Anti-Doping Organization (NADO), it will inform WADA, who will then have the opportunity to review this decision. If the decision does not conform to the International Standard for TUEs, WADA may reverse it and deny the TUE. WADA's decision is not retroactive.

What are the criteria for granting a TUE?

The criteria are:

The athlete would experience significant health problems without taking the prohibited substance or method

The therapeutic use of the substance would not produce significant enhancement of performance, and

There is no reasonable therapeutic alternative to the use of the otherwise prohibited substance or method.

Will the information on the athlete's TUE Application remain confidential?

Athletes concerned about confidentiality should note that all the information contained in their TUE Application will be kept strictly confidential as medical data. All members of the TUECs are required to sign confidentiality agreements and if they require advice from other scientific experts on a particular case, the name of the athlete will not be used when circulating the application outside the TUEC.

Don't hear many people mention this, but a very real effect of having a baby for a lot of dads is a steep drop off of testosterone.

That, combined with struggles with ADD, combined with sleep patterns changing / routine changes, combined with pressure to perform up to the level of the previous year. . .

Basically there is so much chaos in Davis' life factoring in all of the above that fixing it is like trying to fix Ubaldo's noisy wind up. Davis needs to simplify things in a big way and trying to hit homers to right field is not the answer.

Everyone should read every word of this. Especially he TUE portion.

http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf