Tom Verducci: Age and Contracts in the Post PED Era

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/11/18/roger-clemens-free-agency-james-shields-russell-martin

Well, there you go. The whole Steroid Era in baseball? All those cartoonish numbers? All the anguish over what happened to the hallowed record book and the bastardization of baseball? Never mind. Steroids didn?t help ballplayers in the weird world of Roger Clemens. The poor guys actually were hurt by freakish anabolic muscle gains from testosterone, Deca Durabolin, Winstrol and other drugs favored by everybody from sprinters to weightlifters precisely to improve performance.

Great article. Particularly relevant at the moment given the Orioles' current contract negotiations with Nelson Cruz.

Great article. Particularly relevant at the moment given the Orioles' current contract negotiations with Nelson Cruz.

It is just so important not to be the sucker as a small to mid market team. So important.

Good read. Thanks for posting.

Good read. Thanks for posting.

I am glad some enjoyed.

The lack of steroids hurts teams like the Yankees who try to build through free agency. Teams are tieing up their superstars early to long term contracts. The guys becoming free agents are older and demanding long term deals. Signing them is a recipe for disaster.

The lack of steroids hurts teams like the Yankees who try to build through free agency. Teams are tieing up their superstars early to long term contracts. The guys becoming free agents are older and demanding long term deals. Signing them is a recipe for disaster.

It seems like it doesn't it.

Thanks posting this article, Michael. I got two things from this article. One is that Clemens is batcrap crazy. The other is that these owners must be making a ton of money and are thinking that this cycle has no end.

Thanks posting this article, Michael. I got two things from this article. One is that Clemens is batcrap crazy. The other is that these owners must be making a ton of money and are thinking that this cycle has no end.

I got both of theses thing. And that Roger Clemens lies to himself.

It should be obvious by now that you don’t want to rely on players to remain productive through their late 30s. Let’s consider all players 35 and older, and compare how many times they reached selected milestones in two nine-year windows: the nine seasons before amphetamines joined steroids on the banned list and in the nine seasons since then.

CATEGORY 1997-2005 2006-14 DIFFERENCE

120 OPS+ 51 39 -23.5%

30 Home Runs 30 18 -40%

.500 Slugging 47 22 -53.2%

Qualified batters 139 121 -12.9%

I think to put those numbers into context, you'd need to know what the drop in those categories was in players younger than 35.

I think to put those numbers into context, you'd need to know what the drop in those categories was in players younger than 35.

I am not much of a data miner myself. But I agree. Id love to see that.

I am not much of a data miner myself. But I agree. Id love to see that.

There's ore in them thar hills! Drungo anyone?

The lack of steroids hurts teams like the Yankees who try to build through free agency. Teams are tieing up their superstars early to long term contracts. The guys becoming free agents are older and demanding long term deals. Signing them is a recipe for disaster.

After reading the above posted article and then these comments, I for the first time since I was young kid have.. hope.. for the Orioles' future. I had hope for the next year or two and for the past couple of years, but ultimately, I would inevitably remind myself, we play in the AL East. We have to content with the MFY and the Sux who both bring in enough money to have a feasible budget that is 2-3 times larger than our own, and at some point the very good (Boras clients) players out there will be either there or LA.

It's not that don't have faith in Buck and DD because I really do. I know they will put out the best product possible and love them for that. I just couldn't help but think, "Well we caught lightning in a bottle for a bit.. a few extreme shrewd trades from AM, some very shrewd signings by DD, and Buck get some (maybe) once-in-a-lifetime performances (see Jim Johnson and, hopefully not, Steve Pearce) out of some players." But sooner or later the Yanks won't have Jeter and A-Rod and will be signing the Schrezer's and Lester's of the world.

I think some of this must be a product of having watched baseball for the last 20-25 years. Now the Pujols, Canos of the world probably aren't going to be worth it at the end of the day. We can win without the 30 year olds and their mega contracts at a sustained level, if we draft and trade well. For me, there is going to have to be a paradigm shift in my perception of what we should covet.

Related Note: I have been pro-resigning Cruz.. but man, maybe we should take the pick and see him when we go to Seattle?

I am not much of a data miner myself. But I agree. Id love to see that.

Well, I should clarify that two of the four categories, number of players at 120 OPS+ and number of qualified batters, are pretty meaningful even without that context. OPS+ is a relative statistic, so the 23.5% drop there clearly shows a significant drop in the older players hitting at an outstanding level relative to the rest of the league. The number of qualified batters doesn't change much year to year, so the 12.9% drop there shows that fewer older players are able to hold down starting jobs (or perhaps, avoid injuries that limit their plate appearances even if they are still starting). The other two categories are much more dependent on the overall drop in offense regardless of age.