Fly On The Wall

I would really like to know about the conversation that Petey has had with DD and Buck. "Here is your budget. Don't go over it." "Here is your budget. If you need to go over it, check with me first." "Your budget has been shrunken from last year by 20%. We are raising ticket prices, so I can get more money. Do what you can." "Only get me players that nobody else wants and wait until at least the end of January." From the latest signings, I really have to wonder what is going on in the heads of these people. We won last year with DD magic. So why would he not go after exactly what he needs, after losing Cruz, Markakis and Miller? What have they been told by ownership? We have always blamed Petey for being a loser and not spending, but he did what needed to be done last year. Why not build on that?

THOUGHTS?

I think you are off base. I think there is a budget and I think it is likely higher than last year. I think DD has the autonomy to largely do what he wants as long as it's within the confines of the medical protocol and the budget given.

But at the end of the day it is all speculation.

I would really like to know about the conversation that Petey has had with DD and Buck. "Here is your budget. Don't go over it." "Here is your budget. If you need to go over it, check with me first." "Your budget has been shrunken from last year by 20%. We are raising ticket prices, so I can get more money. Do what you can." "Only get me players that nobody else wants and wait until at least the end of January." From the latest signings, I really have to wonder what is going on in the heads of these people. We won last year with DD magic. So why would he not go after exactly what he needs, after losing Cruz, Markakis and Miller? What have they been told by ownership? We have always blamed Petey for being a loser and not spending, but he did what needed to be done last year. Why not build on that?

THOUGHTS?

He probably said, "Good job. Now find me another MVP season on the cheap and don't say you can't because I've seen you do it."

For real though, people need to chill...a season isn't won with splashy moves. Let's just see how this plays out before we start huffing and puffing.

I am actually surprised there hasn't been more of an outcry from the Oriole Fan base. Think about what we lost. Arguably the two best players in baseball at their position.

The major league home run hitter from last year in Cruz. A player who carried this team the first half of the year and who was our best hitter in the playoffs.

A LOCKDOWN reliever in Miller. I don't think there is any question that he was THE BEST middle reliever in baseball. He shortened the game by 1-2 innings every time he came in. What an advantage that was.

What irks me is it's as if we didn't even care about trying to retain them. No real effort that I could see was given. We were a good team last year. Very good. But we did not win the WS with them. So to actually lose them and expect us to be better, even with Manny and Weiters coming back? Mind boggling to me.

Add in the fact that we lost a long trusted and reliable player in Markakis (which I am actually fine with), and our team, as it stands today, is quite a bit weaker imo.

"Your budget has been shrunken from last year by 20%.

What? At the very least, its the same after arbitration. Or are you just exaggerating?

I am actually surprised there hasn't been more of an outcry from the Oriole Fan base. Think about what we lost. Arguably the two best players in baseball at their position.

The major league home run hitter from last year in Cruz. A player who carried this team the first half of the year and who was our best hitter in the playoffs.

A LOCKDOWN reliever in Miller. I don't think there is any question that he was THE BEST middle reliever in baseball. He shortened the game by 1-2 innings every time he came in. What an advantage that was.

We didn't try to retain them because they were going to get far beyond what their actual production would dictate. Cruz is a DH going into the twilight years of his career and will more likely be a 1-1.5 WAR player instead of a 5 WAR player. Miller plays a position that you can't depend on year in and year out because of the small sample sizes... giving relief pitchers big contracts never works out unless they are an incredibly consistent pitcher their entire year. And even if he does pitch at the same level, paying 36 mil for someone to pitch the 7th inning seems like it might not be the best way to spend our money.

I am actually surprised there hasn't been more of an outcry from the Oriole Fan base. Think about what we lost. Arguably the two best players in baseball at their position.

The major league home run hitter from last year in Cruz. A player who carried this team the first half of the year and who was our best hitter in the playoffs.

A LOCKDOWN reliever in Miller. I don't think there is any question that he was THE BEST middle reliever in baseball. He shortened the game by 1-2 innings every time he came in. What an advantage that was.

What irks me is it's as if we didn't even care about trying to retain them. No real effort that I could see was given. We were a good team last year. Very good. But we did not win the WS with them. So to actually lose them and expect us to be better, even with Manny and Weiters coming back? Mind boggling to me.

Add in the fact that we lost a long trusted and reliable player in Markakis (which I am actually fine with), and our team, as it stands today, is quite a bit weaker imo.

I'll never understand how people who claim to be Oriole fans cannot spell Wieters correctly.

It never fails man.

Dan has his own people and his own plan. Just because you don't agree with it doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's doing and have faith in his own plan.

I'll remind you of this post later

I think we will see a drop off from without Markakis and Cruz. Counting on anything from Machado is lunacy and getting that along with a rebound from Davis and Wieters is alot to get right.

We didn't try to retain them because they were going to get far beyond what their actual production would dictate. Cruz is a DH going into the twilight years of his career and will more likely be a 1-1.5 WAR player instead of a 5 WAR player. Miller plays a position that you can't depend on year in and year out because of the small sample sizes... giving relief pitchers big contracts never works out unless they are an incredibly consistent pitcher their entire year. And even if he does pitch at the same level, paying 36 mil for someone to pitch the 7th inning seems like it might not be the best way to spend our money.

I understand all of that, I do. But at some point, you have to go for it. These were not unproven commodities. Based on what I saw of Miller and his 'stuff', I would think it is safe to say he is going to be very good for a while still. Especially if he is used like he was last year. Cruz, while getting older, I still think it is safe to say he has at least 2 good years left in him. This team is not going to be around very much longer. Lots of the teams core could be gone after next year. We waited 30 years to have another legit shot at winning a WS. Last year was legit. 2 years ago probably wasn't. But last year was. And now, just that quickly, 3 of those core players are gone. So realistically, while I expect the O's to be good, I cannot say they are a legit choice to win the WS. If they had kept at least Cruz and Miller, along with the injured players coming back? I would say they would be the favorites to win it all next year. Now? Not so much. And to me that is a HUGE missed opp.

You go for it when you can. In two years, if you don't like the Miller and Cruz contracts, you get creative like the Dodgers have and do what you can to get rid of them. You have confidence in your ability as a GM to make things work later. But you strike while the opp is there. Chances like these are far too rare in the game of baseball.

I'll remind you of this post later

I think we will see a drop off from without Markakis and Cruz. Counting on anything from Machado is lunacy and getting that along with a rebound from Davis and Wieters is alot to get right.

I think Machado, Wieters and Davis will all produce more for the O's in 2015 than in 2014. That's great.

But getting more production out of your C, 1B and 3B doesn't mean that you just want to punt on getting production from your corner outfielders and DH. Years ago, Bill James wrote a searing critique of the Milwaukee Brewers, who wasted the best years of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor's careers playing stiffs like Rick Manning in the outfield, based on the logic "we're getting so much production from our SS and 2B that we can afford to carry weak-hitting outfielders." James' point was that all 9 players in the lineup get to hit, and playing a lousy-hitting outfielder amounts to giving up precious outs at a position where you should be able to get at least some production with the bat.

I think Machado, Wieters and Davis will all produce more for the O's in 2015 than in 2014. That's great.

But getting more production out of your C, 1B and 3B doesn't mean that you just want to punt on getting production from your corner outfielders and DH. Years ago, Bill James wrote a searing critique of the Milwaukee Brewers, who wasted the best years of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor's careers playing stiffs like Rick Manning in the outfield, based on the logic "we're getting so much production from our SS and 2B that we can afford to carry weak-hitting outfielders." James' point was that all 9 players in the lineup get to hit, and playing a lousy-hitting outfielder amounts to giving up precious outs at a position where you should be able to get at least some production with the bat.

Honestly, I believe if Manny and Wieters, along with Davis, had stayed with the team all year and we just missed winning it all? I believe Cruz and Miller would have been signed. The pressure from the fan base and media of losing them after coming so close would have been too much. But because those 3 missed large chunks of the year and the O's still made the playoffs? It gave the O's front office an easy way to justify not paying them. They just say 'well, we expect Wieters, Manny, and Davis to all rebound, so they should make up for the people we lost". It's a shame.

Honestly, I believe if Manny and Wieters, along with Davis, had stayed with the team all year and we just missed winning it all? I believe Cruz and Miller would have been signed. The pressure from the fan base and media of losing them after coming so close would have been too much. But because those 3 missed large chunks of the year and the O's still made the playoffs? It gave the O's front office an easy way to justify not paying them. They just say 'well, we expect Wieters, Manny, and Davis to all rebound, so they should make up for the people we lost". It's a shame.

Miller never was going to be signed. Everyone in the fanbase knew he was a rental (The O's weren't even one of the 22 teams that contacted him, according to reports). A medium market team can't pay a middle reliever 36-40 million dollars.

Cruz was more of a question mark, though I think most people expected him gone since we aren't the type of team to give players big contracts near the end of their career.

Miller never was going to be signed. Everyone in the fanbase knew he was a rental (The O's weren't even one of the 22 teams that contacted him, according to reports). A medium market team can't pay a middle reliever 36-40 million dollars.

Cruz was more of a question mark, though I think most people expected him gone since we aren't the type of team to give players big contracts near the end of their career.

To me I would have put every effort into resigning Miller. I don't think people realize what a luxury it was to have him in there. Really shortened the game, and if need be, he could even become the closer in year 2 or 3. He was worth EVERY penny imo. Losing him will cost the team 5-6 wins next year imo.

To me I would have put every effort into resigning Miller. I don't think people realize what a luxury it was to have him in there. Really shortened the game, and if need be, he could even become the closer in year 2 or 3. He was worth EVERY penny imo. Losing him will cost the team 5-6 wins next year imo.

Over this season's record? The team only had him for 1/3 of it! Can't disagree with you more. Losing all three (Cruz, Kakes, Miller) may cost the team 5-6 wins next year.

To me I would have put every effort into resigning Miller. I don't think people realize what a luxury it was to have him in there. Really shortened the game, and if need be, he could even become the closer in year 2 or 3. He was worth EVERY penny imo. Losing him will cost the team 5-6 wins next year imo.

Andrew Miller was worth 5-6 wins in 20 innings? Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and disagree with you there.