FWIW, Fangraphs Projects O's in Last Place in 2015

17 win decrease.

17 win decrease.

And the mariners WIN the division. Sometimes Dave is so transparent.

Interesting notes.

2014 runs scored per game: 4.35

2015 runs scored per game projection: 4.21

2014 runs allowed per game: 3.66

2015 runs allowed per game projection: 4.36

Has us allowing almost another run per game. Slight regression on offense.

And the mariners WIN the division. Sometimes Dave is so transparent.

I tweeted at Dave a couple weeks ago when they first posted it.

They have the O's ERA increasing by I think it was .7 runs.

They seemingly refuse to adjust for defense. They are irrecoverably wedded to FIP.

Interesting notes.

2014 runs allowed per game: 3.66

2015 runs allowed per game projection: 4.36

Has us allowing almost another run per game.

Interesting. I can see some projected drop in offense but runs allowed doesn't make sense. We are bringing back essentially the same pitching staff plus Gausman. If anything, we will improve defensively without Nelson in LF. I can't think of any reason why we would allow more runs.

You can just throw this away. The top team in all of MLB is projected to win 89 games?

Can someone tell me the last time in a 162 games season where the #1 team in baseball didn't have 90 wins?

Interesting. I can see some projected drop in offense but runs allowed doesn't make sense. We are bringing back essentially the same pitching staff plus Gausman. If anything, we will improve defensively without Nelson in LF. I can't think of any reason why we would allow more runs.

They don't strike out enough guys.

17 win decrease.

Could be the Orioles have a lot of question marks as of Dec 18.

Could be the Orioles have a lot of question marks as of Dec 18.

Are you paying attention at all?

The issue is how they are rating the O's pitching. They are projecting a pretty severe regression. Just like they have for the previous three seasons.

You want me to link to the articles they posted last summer trying to explain why they were so off in their projections?

Interesting notes.

2014 runs scored per game: 4.35

2015 runs scored per game projection: 4.21

2014 runs allowed per game: 3.66

2015 runs allowed per game projection: 4.36

Has us allowing almost another run per game. Slight regression on offense.

Their projection systems always expect pitchers to regress back to their FIP, ignoring that they pitch well because of our defense.

I can see this happening quite easily as the team now stands. Taking Cruz's huge bat out of the lineup ( don't know the numbers but he had a lot of big rbis includinggame winners and Miller's lock down pen work after the trade and the loss of Markakis glove and bat and this is easily possible with nothing added to replace them

17 win decrease.

Kinda funny they don't have 1 90 win team in 2015.

Yeah loses me when they have not one 90 game winner. Plus it's December.

Any 2015 projection done now should be analyzed for an agenda. Otherwise, what is he doing with unsigned guys like Scherzer.

I don't think it is an agenda. I think that is part of what Fangraphs mission is so they provide the info. They are not actively pushing their December projections.