The Hardball Times: Are Groundball Pitchers Overated?

I posted this link elsewhere but I think it also deserves its own thread.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/are-groundball-pitchers-overrated/

The short of it is that GB pitchers have significantly worse results from the fly balls they allow.

As it turns out, groundball pitchers not only have lower total pop-up rates because of fewer fly balls, but groundball rate actually has a strong inverse correlation to IFFB% (R = -0.45), meaning that fly balls hit against groundball pitchers are less likely to be pop-ups than if they came against an average or flyball pitcher.

That is, there is a slight positive correlation between groundball percentage and home runs per fly ball (R = 0.13 for the same year, R = 0.17 for the following year).

I posted this link elsewhere but I think it also deserves its own thread.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/are-groundball-pitchers-overrated/

The short of it is that GB pitchers have significantly worse results from the fly balls they allow.

But there are clearly less home runs hit vs. ground-ball pitchers. The lower percentage is only due to the fact that the denominator (total number of fly balls) is so much greater for fly-ball pitchers.

But there are clearly less home runs hit vs. ground-ball pitchers. The lower percentage is only due to the fact that the denominator (total number of fly balls) is so much greater for fly-ball pitchers.

The HR/FB ratio is higher for ground ball pitchers. That has nothing to do with the total number of fly balls hit.

Of course this whole issue could be moot as Jim Johnson got hit hard enough last season to skew the whole data pool.

The HR/FB ratio is higher for ground ball pitchers. That has nothing to do with the total number of fly balls hit.

Of course this whole issue could be moot as Jim Johnson got hit hard enough last season to skew the whole data pool.

As I already stated, it has everything to do with the number of fly balls hit, which is the denominator of the fraction from which HR/FB % comes from. Are you seriously arguing that fact?

As I already stated, it has everything to do with the number of fly balls hit, which is the denominator of the fraction from which HR/FB % comes from. Are you seriously arguing that fact?

If a GB pitcher gives up 4 HR on ten fly balls and the fly ball pitcher gives up 350 on 1000 fly balls the ratio is higher for the GB pitcher. 40% > 35%. I am not sure why the ratio would be effected by the denominator. The piece isn't stating that GB pitchers give up more HR then FB pitchers, just that the fly balls they do give up are more damaging.

Have I forgotten something really basic in the last 25 years because for some reason I am evidently not understanding you. If it is me please try again.

If a GB pitcher gives up 4 HR on ten fly balls and the fly ball pitcher gives up 350 on 1000 fly balls the ratio is higher for the GB pitcher. 40% > 35%. I am not sure why the ratio would be effected by the denominator. The piece isn't stating that GB pitchers give up more HR then FB pitchers, just that the fly balls they do give up are more damaging.

Have I forgotten something really basic in the last 25 years because for some reason I am evidently not understanding you. If it is me please try again.

Please read what I wrote. I said that fly ball pitchers give up more home runs than ground ball pitchers. I further stated that the ONLY reason that the HR/FB % is greater for ground ball pitchers is the fact that fly ball pitchers give up so many more fly balls (the denominator). The examples you have cited show this very clearly. It would be a mistake to get lost in the fog of statistical analysis and lose track of the basic fact that more home runs (and doubles and triples for that matter) are given up by fly ball pitchers. The heading of the thread implies this very misconception.

Please read what I wrote. I said that fly ball pitchers give up more home runs than ground ball pitchers. I further stated that the ONLY reason that the HR/FB % is greater for ground ball pitchers is the fact that fly ball pitchers give up so many more fly balls (the denominator). The examples you have cited show this very clearly. It would be a mistake to get lost in the fog of statistical analysis and lose track of the basic fact that more home runs (and doubles and triples for that matter) are given up by fly ball pitchers. The heading of the thread implies this very misconception.

The heading is just asking if GB pitchers are overrated, by, for example, xFIP. The article does not state that GB pitchers give up more HR. The piece very clearly states

Ground balls turn into hits only about 23 percent of the time, and almost never go for extra bases, for an average wOBA of .213.

The piece isn't trying to make the argument that GB pitchers are bad. Something can be both good and overrated, take for example the Beatles.

As for the ratio, yea I still don't get that. 1/10=10/100=100/1000. The ratio of numerator to denominator is the issue. The fly ball pitcher should have both a larger numerator and denominator then the ground ball pitcher.

The heading is just asking if GB pitchers are overrated, by, for example, xFIP. The article does not state that GB pitchers give up more HR. The piece very clearly states

The piece isn't trying to make the argument that GB pitchers are bad. Something can be both good and overrated, take for example the Beatles.

As for the ratio, yea I still don't get that. 1/10=10/100=100/1000. The ratio of numerator to denominator is the issue. The fly ball pitcher should have both a larger numerator and denominator then the ground ball pitcher.

Yes, the numerator and denominator are both larger, but I think we can all agree that a larger percentage of mistakes are hit for home runs. Both ground ball pitchers and fly ball pitchers are subject to mistakes, and very likely at a similar rate. The mistake pitches hit for home runs are going to have a greater impact on the HR/FB % for the low number of home runs pitcher (ground ball pitcher) than for the pitcher that gives up more home runs on non-mistakes (fly ball pitcher). The HR/FB % is not nearly as important as the total number of home runs or, to be exact, the number of home runs as a percentage of plate appearances.

Yes, the numerator and denominator are both larger, but I think we can all agree that a larger percentage of mistakes are hit for home runs. Both ground ball pitchers and fly ball pitchers are subject to mistakes, and very likely at a similar rate. The mistake pitches hit for home runs are going to have a greater impact on the HR/FB % for the low number of home runs pitcher (ground ball pitcher) than for the pitcher that gives up more home runs on non-mistakes (fly ball pitcher). The HR/FB % is not nearly as important as the total number of home runs or, to be exact, the number of home runs as a percentage of plate appearances.

So we basically haven't been disagreeing this whole time.

Good to know.