The Chris Tillman Extension Thread

Jon Heyman: Orioles ace Tillman begins talks with Orioles about possible extension

Now we all know Jon Heyman / Joel Sherman are part of the poker game when it comes to these things; nonetheless the subject is officially in play:

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Orioles ace Chris Tillman and the team began to talk about a possible long-term contract within the past day or two, though talks thus far are said only to be about "concepts" and not hard numbers, say people familiar with the discussions.

Tillman, the Orioles' presumed Opening Day starter, will talk with the team throughout the remainder of spring training, with the opener viewed as the deadline to get a deal done.

Tillman will earn $4.315 million this year, his first year of arbitration eligibility, if nothing new can be worked out before the season. He has three more arbitration years and is due to become a free agent following the 2017 season.

The big right-hander has emerged as a star in Baltimore, going 38-14 the past three years, including 13-6 last year, when he had a career-best 3.36 ERA. Tillman was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2013, when he made the All-Star team. He has exceeded 200 innings each of the past two seasons, and last year he tied for the league lead with 34 starts.

The plan to discuss a contract was first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

2016 (Arb 2): $7 mm

2017 (Arb 3): $10 mm

2018 (FA 1): $12 mm

2019 (FA 2): $15 mm

2020 (FA 3): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

2021 (FA 4): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

Who hangs up the phone?

2016 (Arb 2): $7 mm

2017 (Arb 3): $10 mm

2018 (FA 1): $12 mm

2019 (FA 2): $15 mm

2020 (FA 3): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

2021 (FA 4): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

Who hangs up the phone?

That seems fair to both.

2016 (Arb 2): $7 mm

2017 (Arb 3): $10 mm

2018 (FA 1): $12 mm

2019 (FA 2): $15 mm

2020 (FA 3): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

2021 (FA 4): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

Who hangs up the phone?

Yes, please.

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2016 (Arb 2): $7 mm

2017 (Arb 3): $10 mm

2018 (FA 1): $12 mm

2019 (FA 2): $15 mm

2020 (FA 3): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

2021 (FA 4): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

Who hangs up the phone?

Do you honestly see this team committing 17.5 per year to 1 player? I don't - at least not right now.

FWIW, I like the deal and the flexibility you built into it.

Do you honestly see this team committing 17.5 per year to 1 player? I don't - at least not right now.

FWIW, I like the deal and the flexibility you built into it.

Sure. Especially if it is a team option. If 2020 rolls around and Tillman has at least maintained his 2012 - 2014 success from 2015 - 2019 without any glaring red flags that he he is about to fall off a cliff, I think the Orioles wouldn't have any issue paying him $17.5 m for one season. Also FWIW, Adam Jones will make $16.33 in 2016 and 2017 and $17.33 in 2018, so the Orioles have already shown they will make that sort of commitment to one player.

Do you honestly see this team committing 17.5 per year to 1 player? I don't - at least not right now.

FWIW, I like the deal and the flexibility you built into it.

It has to happen sooner or later. And they have already attached similar amounts to extensions before.

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It has to happen sooner or later. And they have already attached similar amounts to extensions before.

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Nick, for instance.

Pay the man and keep him on the team. (With in reason of course )

Do you honestly see this team committing 17.5 per year to 1 player? I don't - at least not right now.

FWIW, I like the deal and the flexibility you built into it.

They would not be committing with this structure. There are $2M buyouts for years 5 and 6. Worst case scenario, it is 4 years, $49M (about what Ubaldo has gotten). The buyouts are the key. Seems reasonable to both sides.

My only question is if Tillman has TJ in year 2 or 3, is it worth it? I wonder if there could be a "Lackey clause", maybe not as extreme as league minimum but maybe making some amount of the 2018 and 2019 dollars tied to incentives for games pitched.

2016 (Arb 2): $7 mm

2017 (Arb 3): $10 mm

2018 (FA 1): $12 mm

2019 (FA 2): $15 mm

2020 (FA 3): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

2021 (FA 4): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

Who hangs up the phone?

Sure that sounds great for us but Tillmans agent would laugh at this.. He will get a better offer on the market cause we all know, Great pitching comes at a high premium. It also shows that the Orioles are only willing to commit 2 years...

Sure that sounds great for us but Tillmans agent would laugh at this.. He will get a better offer on the market cause we all know, Great pitching comes at a high premium. It also shows that the Orioles are only willing to commit 2 years...

They would be committing for four years.

2016 (Arb 2): $7 mm

2017 (Arb 3): $10 mm

2018 (FA 1): $12 mm

2019 (FA 2): $15 mm

2020 (FA 3): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

2021 (FA 4): $17.5 mm team option ($2 mm buyout)

Who hangs up the phone?

I'd actually be on board with this. I'd still rather just go year to year and take bigger risks on someone less dependent on their defense, but this would be reasonable enough that I wouldn't dislike it. Of course I also like Tillman, and most of our starters, less than almost everyone here.

They would not be committing with this structure. There are $2M buyouts for years 5 and 6. Worst case scenario, it is 4 years, $49M (about what Ubaldo has gotten). The buyouts are the key. Seems reasonable to both sides.

My only question is if Tillman has TJ in year 2 or 3, is it worth it? I wonder if there could be a "Lackey clause", maybe not as extreme as league minimum but maybe making some amount of the 2018 and 2019 dollars tied to incentives for games pitched.

Interestingly enough, the Dodgers added the "Lackey clause" to their deal with Olivera, though for a $1M and not league minimum. Seems like something that may become more prevalent.

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I think a "Lackey clause" would be a hard sell for Tillman unless something specific shows up in his medical exams. Lackey already had Tommy John when he signed his deal and Olivera's medicals reveal significant potential UCL issues. If Tillman extends in the next two weeks, I doubt they will be able to get him to agree to such a clause. He has been very healthy thus far in his career. If anything, he will be looking to get rewarded for that strong record of health rather than penalized for a potential injury down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see more pitchers with identifiable/significant injury concerns agree to those sorts of deals, but I would be surprised if such language were to be included in a Tillman contract extension.