Jump to content

Why I Think Dariel Alvarez Will Be Fine


Slade-OH

Recommended Posts

Dariel Alvarez, one of the top position player prospects in the system, is off to a real disappointing start at Norfolk batting just .232/.265/.335 in 162 PA on the season.

Being the numbers geek that I am, I'm here to tell you I think he is actually doing just fine and should heat up at the plate soon using a good old fashioned saber metric argument. Don't let 162 disappointing PA get you down on him just yet. Why?

Because, taking a deeper look at the numbers, I see three very interesting things going on here.

2014 Alvarez: .306/.330/.472, 11% K percentage, 16.5% Line Drive Rate, .320 BABIP

2015 Alvarez: .232/.265/.335, 9.9% K percentage, 18.7% Line Drive Rate, .243 BABIP

Do you see them too? Yes, so despite posting a much weaker slash line than he did in 2014, Alvarez has actually cut down his strikeouts and increased his percentage of line drives hit. But, he has gotten very unlucky on batting average on balls in play, as shown by the significantly lower BABIP in 2015. That should correct itself over time, especially if he maintains his current contact and line drive rates, and eventually that slash line should be more in line with what we expected to see from him. So, I keep telling myself. Let's hope I'm right. For what its worth, the scout that Roy Firestone talked also seems to think the bat will come around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting, thanks. He doesn't seem to be an extreme pull hitter, even in GB/FB splits. But he does have a lot of 5-3, 6-3 groundouts, and flyballs to RC. So maybe not an extreme shift candidate, maybe some further proof he's hitting into bad luck. Or just hitting too many groundballs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And that scout says his arm is positively "Clemente-esque".

Was that scout married to Morgan Fairchild?

I know he has exceptional circumstances, but he had only one exceptional year in Cuba http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alvare002dar . No doubt he's better than the sub .600 OPS he has this season, but I'm skeptical that he'll help Baltimore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was that scout married to Morgan Fairchild?

I know he has exceptional circumstances, but he had only one exceptional year in Cuba http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alvare002dar . No doubt he's better than the sub .600 OPS he has this season, but I'm skeptical that he'll help Baltimore.

It's difficult to translate stats from places like Cuba because of the wide spread in talent. You have major league star-quality players playing alongside guys who'd probably be in A ball in the States, alongside guys who might be MLB talent but they're 18 or 41. You need some detailed scouting to tell you if someone is feasting off 77 mph fastballs or if they have the ability to hit better stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's difficult to translate stats from places like Cuba because of the wide spread in talent. You have major league star-quality players playing alongside guys who'd probably be in A ball in the States, alongside guys who might be MLB talent but they're 18 or 41. You need some detailed scouting to tell you if someone is feasting off 77 mph fastballs or if they have the ability to hit better stuff.

Yes, that would make great looking stats questionable, but when someone has what would be considered here as mediocre stats, why would you think they'd be better here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, that would make great looking stats questionable, but when someone has what would be considered here as mediocre stats, why would you think they'd be better here?

I wouldn't. I'd have to have a pretty darned good scouting report with a reasonable explanation for why a MLB prospect wasn't hitting at a high level when he was facing non-MLB talent 3/4ths or more of the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...