Chen

Somebody catch me up. Everyone is talking as if losing Chen is an absolute

guarantee at this point. Why is it that he is "definitely" leaving after this year. Money issue? Are the Orioles going to make a run at him?

Somebody catch me up. Everyone is talking as if losing Chen is an absolute

guarantee at this point. Why is it that he is "definitely" leaving after this year. Money issue? Are the Orioles going to make a run at him?

Represented by Boras and will command a lot in the market. They will offer him the qualifying offer, Boras won't accept and they'll get the pick.

He is going to at least get the contract Ubaldo got.

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He is going to at least get the contract Ubaldo got.

He will get more, IMO. He's a lefty, more consistent, throws more innings, and there has been significant salary inflation over the last two years. I've predicted 5/$80 mm, assuming he has a strong year (which he has, so far). That may be a little too aggressive, but I think that'll be the ballpark.

Represented by Boras and will command a lot in the market. They will offer him the qualifying offer, Boras won't accept and they'll get the pick.

And we'll miss him....big time. You don't allow your best pitcher, it's either he or Miguel, to get away without a fight. This isn't like replacing Norris with KG. Chen's loss is going to hurt.

And we'll miss him....big time. You don't allow your best pitcher, it's either he or Miguel, to get away without a fight. This isn't like replacing Norris with KG. Chen's loss is going to hurt.

Don't worry, they have Bundy..., I mean Harvey...., I mean Wright waiting in the wings.

He will get more, IMO. He's a lefty, more consistent, throws more innings, and there has been significant salary inflation over the last two years. I've predicted 5/$80 mm, assuming he has a strong year (which he has, so far). That may be a little too aggressive, but I think that'll be the ballpark.

Assumptions: Chen is a 2-win pitcher by fWAR, closer to 3 by rWAR, and will continue to be. Wins in free agency are valued at $7M. Inflation is at 5% per year.

Splitting the difference between f/rWAR you get 2.5 wins/year, or a total of 5 years at $97M. I'm sure Boras' initial offer will be just using rWAR as a starting point, so 3 wins a year, or more like 5/115.

I wouldn't pay that, or go that many years. Maybe no one will, but Boras will certainly try to get that.

And we'll miss him....big time. You don't allow your best pitcher, it's either he or Miguel, to get away without a fight. This isn't like replacing Norris with KG. Chen's loss is going to hurt.

Maybe, but which will hurt more: trying to replace Chen, or coming to grips with paying a guy with a 3.75 ERA, basically average K/BB/HR numbers, and no 200-innings seasons $20M+ a year through 2021?

Represented by Boras and will command a lot in the market. They will offer him the qualifying offer, Boras won't accept and they'll get the pick.

This is all that needs said. ^^^^^

This is all that needs said. ^^^^^

Truth be told I don't see them paying for Chen even if he had different representation.

Assumptions: Chen is a 2-win pitcher by fWAR, closer to 3 by rWAR, and will continue to be. Wins in free agency are valued at $7M. Inflation is at 5% per year.

Splitting the difference between f/rWAR you get 2.5 wins/year, or a total of 5 years at $97M. I'm sure Boras' initial offer will be just using rWAR as a starting point, so 3 wins a year, or more like 5/115.

I wouldn't pay that, or go that many years. Maybe no one will, but Boras will certainly try to get that.

I would say you were out of your mind, if it weren't for what happened with Rick Porcello. But I still think 5/$80 mm is closer to the mark.

I would say you were out of your mind, if it weren't for what happened with Rick Porcello. But I still think 5/$80 mm is closer to the mark.

I would say 5/80 is about right if not for Boras. I'd expect Chen to be sitting home in mid-March if the best offer he's gotten is 5/80. I think on the same team, in the same park, Porcello (prior to this year) and Chen are fairly comparable.

Truth be told I don't see them paying for Chen even if he had different representation.

Roughly an average pitcher who out-pitches his FIP because of Manny and Schoop and Joseph and the like, who understandably wants to be paid like his ERA would be the same in another context. Nope, they wouldn't sign him to a market-rate deal.

Truth be told I don't see them paying for Chen even if he had different representation.

Agreed.

I really don't like having an all-RH starting staff, especially in Yankee Stadium. I agree we're unlikely to sign Chen, though.