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vs. Yankees 7/23 Day Game


weams

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationalHotDogDay?src=hash">#NationalHotDogDay</a>

Nothing better than an Oriole Park hot dog, whether you go with the traditional... <a href="http://t.co/YDhuD8TUzG">pic.twitter.com/YDhuD8TUzG</a></p>— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) <a href="

">July 23, 2015</a></blockquote>

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1. Manny Machado ® 3B

2. Jimmy Paredes (S) DH

3. Adam Jones ® CF

4. Chris Davis (L) 1B

5. Nolan Reimold ® RF

6. Matt Wieters (S) C

7. Jonathan Schoop ® 2B

8. J.J. Hardy ® SS

9. David Lough (L) LF

I like this lineup except for Matt. And Paredes doesn't really excite me at DH. But everyone else is okay with me

But I think we win today. Ill be here giving my PBP/////

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<blockquote class="twitter-video" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">James Harden play's just like this<a href="http://t.co/nlgl8KsqIg">pic.twitter.com/nlgl8KsqIg</a></p>— FunnyPicsDepot (@FunnyPicsDepot) <a href="

">July 23, 2015</a></blockquote>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Marriage material. RT <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballBros">@BaseballBros</a>: This guy is too hype <a href="http://t.co/WdXFyWnLxe">pic.twitter.com/WdXFyWnLxe</a></p>— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) <a href="

">July 23, 2015</a></blockquote>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Johnny Schoop owns Tanaka, only right that the O's salvage a win today, and he goes deep. Step back off the ledge friends.</p>— Eroc RDT (@BarstoolRDT) <a href="

">July 23, 2015</a></blockquote>

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    • Take this how you want it, but Schoop was up here for 1: a lack of better options, and 2: because despite the fact that he was an offensive zero in 2014, his defense was almost good enough to make him a passable regular despite that.  It's hard to call him rushed if he's providing positive value.   A second point of nuance that I'll bring up is that it might be worth considering minor league park effects.  This was pre-Walltimore, and pre-baseball change to the MLB baseball.  The park effects in Norfolk were so severe that for hitters, your MLE OPS was almost identical to your actual OPS.  So while his Norfolk numbers weren't great, the awful hitting environment there suggested that he might be ready for Major League pitching anyway.  (He probably wasn't, but again, lack of better options.)   If Holliday ends up being a +10 or +12 runs above average defender over the course of a whole year (and he very well might be, his OAA is already far above average) then you probably live with a .600 OPS from him, especially considering how big of a black hole 2B has been for the past 2 years.  But of course he's far below that threshold at this point.   I don't think any of this indicates that Holliday was rushed.  Machado had worse minor league numbers than Holliday at close to the same age, skipping AAA all together despite only putting an 850ish OPS there, and Machado put up a 1.3 wins in 1/3 season and 5 wins in his first full season.
    • Whether he was rushed or merely expedited or accelerated, he made his debut at a very young age with very little minor league experience, and the results thus far have been terrible. 
    • I think you're basically right, probability-wise.  That said, almost no one thought Kjerstad coming up today was the move they were going to make. So... you never really know with Mike and roster moves. But I agree, it's tough to figure out how he stays if Mounty is healthy when Hays comes back. 
    • But he's 82nd percentile in barrel percentage and 92nd percentile in Whiff. I saw some some high EVs that were hit at 60 degree angles or more which were pop ups. I'm not saying he's a long term piece. I'd need to see it for longer than two starts, but I like the stuff overall, especially if he can get his curveball over more often to give another look to the change and cutter.
    • The rookie is a #2 overall selection, now 25 years old, who battled back from missing significant time with non-baseball related illness, was called up last season but had mostly sit behind a mediocre performing veteran (Hays), and is performing better at the minor league levels than Hays ever did. But, I guess he hasn’t paid his dues and is just temporarily holding a spot for the guy who was fortunate enough to come up when he was much younger and the organization was in bad shape.
    • Simmer down...  Just because you've got it all figured out doesn't mean I do.
    • by all means bet the house and the student loans
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