What do you expect from Tillman/Jimenez/Gonzalez/Gausman next year?

Tillman 2014: 207 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.01 FIP

Tillman 2015: 140 IP, 4.87 ERA, 4.30 FIP

Jimenez 2014: 125 IP, 4.81 ERA, 4.67 FIP

Jimenez 2015: 147 IP, 4.34 ERA, 4.06 FIP

Gonzalez 2014: 159 IP 3.23 ERA, 4.89 FIP

Gonzalez 2015: 141 IP, 4.85 ERA, 5.04 FIP

Gausman 2014: 113 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.41 FIP

Gausman 2014: 82 IP, 4.59 ERA, 4.45 FIP

Total 2014: 604 IP, 3.65 ERA, 4.27 FIP

Total 2015: 510 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.46 FIP

If you are a big believer in FIP, then this doesn't look too promising for next year. I am not a huge believer in it, but the results this year certainly support the theory that last year's ERA was not likely to be repeated in 2015 for Tillman and Gonzalez.

Not much

I'm really struggling to find a scenario that the O's don't lose 90+ games next year.

They need starting pitching, and they can't afford it, and they can't develop it.

I don't see any reason for optimism with Tillman, Gonzo, Ubaldo, or Gausman. Sad thing is Ubaldo is the best of the group.

More consistency from Tillman with a resulting ERA around 4.00

Improvement from Gausman coming from getting more ML experience. ERA say around 4.20

Ubaldo shows incremental improvement. Pitches around 180 innings.

Gonzalez - your guess is as good as mine. I would be ecstatic if he split the difference between 2014 an 2015.

Just off the top of my head...

Tillman will be somewhere in between this year and his 2013-14. 2014 may have been a career year, but he got off to a horrible start this year that has skewed his numbers. He seems healthy, so his career average 4.15 ERA would seem like a reasonable prediction.

Ubaldo has gotten the walk rate down but is still inconsistent. He can't be as bad as he was in 2013. A repeat of this year seems like a reasonable expectation.

Gonzo is tough to predict. Something like his 2013 seems reasonable. Then again, if his groin or shoulder comes back, he could easily lose his spot in the spring and never get it back. Like, ever.

Hard to say with KG too. At times he looks like a future ace, at times he looks like Tommy Hunter. BB/9 very good at 2.2, down from last year, and K/9 slightly up to 7.7. So why has his FIP gone all the way up to 4.45? What has really killed him is the long ball, and it is not just on hanging sliders. Guys are crushing his fastball too. I don't really get it. In the absence of any theory to explain it, I would have to predict somewhere in between his numbers this year and last year.

So, basically we have four guys who you can't predict to be better than 4.00-ish ERA pitchers. I think we could carry one or two of those types at the back end of our rotation, but that really highlights how much we need talent at the top of the rotation. My priority this offseason is to sign someone who can be a legit #1/#2. If not Price, at least somebody like Kazmir who could be a slight upgrade from Chen, while allowing us to keep the comp pick for Chen walking.

Tillman 2014: 207 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.01 FIP

Tillman 2015: 140 IP, 4.87 ERA, 4.30 FIP

Jimenez 2014: 125 IP, 4.81 ERA, 4.67 FIP

Jimenez 2015: 147 IP, 4.34 ERA, 4.06 FIP

Gonzalez 2014: 159 IP 3.23 ERA, 4.89 FIP

Gonzalez 2015: 141 IP, 4.85 ERA, 5.04 FIP

Gausman 2014: 113 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.41 FIP

Gausman 2014: 82 IP, 4.59 ERA, 4.45 FIP

Total 2014: 604 IP, 3.65 ERA, 4.27 FIP

Total 2015: 510 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.46 FIP

If you are a big believer in FIP, then this doesn't look too promising for next year. I am not a huge believer in it, but the results this year certainly support the theory that last year's ERA was not likely to be repeated in 2015 for Tillman and Gonzalez.

Those pitching numbers are ugly and I am starting to believe we may have seen this staff's best year in 2014. Da U is here to stay and I am not sure what to do with Tillman and Gonzo BUT for Gausman it's time to pick it up.

More of the same that we've seen this year. Gausman needs to start showing improvement or he should start to prove himself in AAA next year before he's given another shot at starting.

I really hope Gonzalez's struggles this year are injury related.

It wouldn't completely shock me if all of the pitchers except for Gonzo bounced back next year. Every starting pitcher except for Chen is literally having their "worst case scenario" season this year. Everybody has talked about all of the good luck the Orioles have had the last few years. Well , this year pretty much everything that can go wrong has gone wrong. I believe the starting pitching will be better next year even if the team doesn't make too many moves in that department. Now the hitters OTOH are legitimately terrible. There's four good players (Schoop, Machado, Jones and Davis) and a bunch of AAAA players and fading veterans who have no place on a Major League roster. Dan has his work cut out for him trying to improve the position players on this team.

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Sign Price.

Add Wilson to the rotation.

More of the same that we've seen this year. Gausman needs to start showing improvement or he should start to prove himself in AAA next year before he's given another shot at starting.

I really hope Gonzalez's struggles this year are injury related.

Isn't Gausman out of options? He can't pitch in AAA next year.

I'm surprised that everyone thinks Gonzo is least likely to bounce back next year. I think he's most likely.

It wouldn't completely shock me if all of the pitchers except for Gonzo bounced back next year. Every starting pitcher except for Chen is literally having their "worst case scenario" season this year. Everybody has talked about all of the good luck the Orioles have had the last few years. Well , this year pretty much everything that can go wrong has gone wrong. I believe the starting pitching will be better next year even if the team doesn't make too many moves in that department. Now the hitters OTOH are legitimately terrible. There's four good players (Schoop, Machado, Jones and Davis) and a bunch of AAAA players and fading veterans who have no place on a Major League roster. Dan has his work cut out for him trying to improve the position players on this team.

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The pitching worries me MUCH more than the hitting, even with Davis gone. We are losing the one guy who has been consistently solid. The problem is all of our guys are kinda OK and you hesitate to part with any one of them. But if you don't, a) you have a whole rotation of below-average pitchers who can lose 11 out of 12 games and/or b) you don't even have any open slots to try out your interesting minor league guys. I would rather have one or two dependable guys at the top end, with two or three open spots where you can try out different options. Under the current circumstances, it appears the only way to make something like that happen would be to trade Miguel or Tillman. Tough call. Glad I don't have DD's job.

Isn't Gausman out of options? He can't pitch in AAA next year.

I thought that next year would be his last option year. I could be wrong though.

Britton to the rotation, Gausman to the pen.

Unless Kevin masters a 3rd pitch, closer is his celing. His fastball is too straight.

500 innings of a 4.25.

Britton to the rotation, Gausman to the pen.

Unless Kevin masters a 3rd pitch, closer is his celing. His fastball is too straight.

That's an interesting bit of reasoning. Demote the guy who you say only has two pitches in favor of the guy who only uses one 90% of the time and hasn't pitched 100 innings to a sub-4.00 ERA in five years.