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Connolly rates Chen returning to the Orioles at 1 out of 10


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Who really knows? I still think the Orioles sign someone that surprises people..

Qualifying-offer possibility: Definite

Prospects heading into free agency: Tremendous. In his fourth year in the majors he spent the previous four seasons in the Japan Central League Chen posted his lowest big league ERA and the seventh-best mark in the American League among qualifying pitchers. Because he signed a major league deal coming out of Japan, the Taiwan native isn't required to wait six seasons for free agency. He'll hit the market at 30, younger than most of the other free-agent left-handed starters. Chen signed a three-year deal in January 2012 with a team option for 2015, an incredibly club-friendly pact that cost the Orioles roughly $15.7 million. Over his four years in Baltimore, Chen was 46-32 with a 3.72 ERA, and in three of his four seasons, he won at least 11 games, made at least 31 starts and pitched 185-plus innings. The deal is arguably the best move of Duquette's tenure.

As for Chen, he fit in really well with the Orioles and has said it would be difficult to leave his friends and the only Major League Baseball team he has known. He'll also be saddled with a one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Orioles, which he'll reject, but it could limit his suitors. Teams that sign him must forfeit a compensatory first- or second-round draft pick to the Orioles.

Also, it shouldn't be discounted that Chen was miffed by the Orioles' decision to send him to the minors in June as part of a roster crunch after he had thrown eight scoreless innings in his previous outing. Chen had a minor league option remaining, and the Orioles were giving him some extra rest and keeping him away from the Toronto Blue Jays' tough lineup, but the interruption in his routine was unwelcome. Orioles decision-makers have played it off as no big deal, but several club sources say Chen hasn't forgotten that episode.

Dan Connolly's scale of return: 1

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-wei-yin-chen-free-agent-1031-20151030-story.html

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The O's are the only organization in baseball that would have optioned their ace. And to what purpose?

To save him the beating he would have suffered at the hands of the Blue Jays.

The concept is simple, accumulate enough marginal advantages and it eventually leads to a win.

If you think the O's sending Chen down for a couple days has an impact on if he signs with the team I don't know what to tell you.

Oh wait, I do know.

You are wrong, he is going to rate many things, things such as monetary compensation, taxes, location, odds of personal and team success way before being optioned for a couple of days.

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These athletes....as far as I'm concerned, Chen owes the Orioles for giving him a shot in MLB. Gonzo did not whine about being optioned. Neither did Ulbaldo whine when sent to the pen.

The mid season whining about being optioned and the need to pay a translator when obviously he doesn't need one, and lack of loyalty shows disturbing things about his attitude.

Bye bye Chen.

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These athletes....as far as I'm concerned, Chen owes the Orioles for giving him a shot in MLB. Gonzo did not whine about being optioned. Neither did Ulbaldo whine when sent to the pen.

The mid season whining about being optioned and the need to pay a translator when obviously he doesn't need one, and lack of loyalty shows disturbing things about his attitude.

Bye bye Chen.

Chen owes the Os? The Os got crazy positive value out of his miniscule free agent deal.

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Can someone explain the 1st / 2nd pick thing. Do we get their actual pick or a sandwich selection?

All compensation picks are between the first and second rounds. Teams pick in reverse order of finish. So, if the Orioles have three players with QOs who sign with other teams, we will get three picks in a row.

Teams that sign a player who has turned down a QO will give up their first round pick unless they finished with one of the 10 overall worst records. For those teams, the first round picks are protected.

Whether a team that signs a player gives up a first or second round player (or another, if they sign several players), the team that lost the player will pick in the compensation round described in the first paragraph. In other words, the O's compensation draft slots will not be impacted by which team signs the players.

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Chen owes the Os? The Os got crazy positive value out of his miniscule free agent deal.

They got great value from his contract, and some other team certainly would have signed him had the Orioles not. It's not like he was playing in the Uzbek League and he'd be sitting in a dirt shack making 25 rubles a month. He was a fairly accomplished Japanese League pitcher who earned a shot at the majors when he was eligible.

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The mid season whining about being optioned and the need to pay a translator when obviously he doesn't need one, and lack of loyalty shows disturbing things about his attitude.

Bye bye Chen.

I'm disturbed by this post. I'd like to send you to Taipei and tell you to interact with the press on a daily basis in Mandarin with no translator. And get it right every time, without offending extremely thin-skinned messageboard posters.

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    • The fastball was low in ST, too. However, that contradicts he pre-ST workouts where he was apparently hitting 100.  So, definitely a concern. I think he'll probably get optioned pretty soon if the next couple appearances look similar. 
    • "Lots" - he faced 3 batters
    • Baumann was at 98/99. So it wasn’t a cold gun. Definitely concerned about Tate. 
    • And he made it look effortless.  You can tell he had plenty more in the tank when it comes to his fastball velo, but there was no need to push it yesterday.  He'll easily be able to crank it up in the big games.
    • Now we see about the KC series. But the forecast will change a couple of times 
    • I don't necessarily think he's going to just open the flood gates financially, either. I think ME is too smart to do that, even with someone else's money. I think a combination of people like Elias and Rubenstein will always seek to assemble a best-value team. In my world, that does not mean cheapest. I think a lot of people see that phase and key in too much on the "value" part and think it's synonymous with "cheap". It's not. It simply means smart and responsible spending.  We have so much young talent on this roster that nobody could keep it all. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves would all have to make some very tough decisions at some point with this group. I'm glad we have such a long time to evaluate this, but when I say I think we're in great hands with Rubenstein, it's because I think he will listen to what ME recommends, and empower him to do it. Whatever that turns out to be. And again, I think it's the tandem of those two guys that makes me feel so confident, because I don't think ME will ever ask ownership to spend irresponsibly. Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody will nail every single contract extension of FA signing, but I think this group is going to have a pretty high success rate.
    • Opening Day observations, - Baumann hit 98/99 on some fastballs. Maybe he just tired out last season? - Akin looked better, but lots of full counts/pitches to get outs.  - Tate didn’t do so well, but it was a good game to get him back into an MLB game. - Webb on Paternity List.  - Vespi with the surprise call up.  It’ll be interesting to see how much we up/down guys to keep fresh arms in the pen. Tate, Vespi, and Akin, are the members of our current pen with options. 
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