The Optimistic View

I'd like to take a look at the 2016 Orioles from both the purely optimistic view and also from the opposite vantage point.

The optimist actually has a lot to say...

A baseball team is arguably made up of eight components: 1. Rotation; 2. Bullpen; 3. Defense; 4. Offense (Run Scoring); 5. Bench; 6. Minor League Depth (as it bolsters the MLB squad); 7. Coaching; and, 8. Intangibles. With the exception of the starting rotation the 2016 Orioles are championship caliber in every one of these areas. And, honestly, the rotation is under-rated.

Let's take them in order and slay the rotation dragon first. Is this rotation relying on has been's? Unproven prospects? No and no. Is it a bunch of #3 and #4 types? Well, okay, yes... with the potential exception of Gausman who could legitimately graduate to the TOR caliber this year. I don't see it, even though I'm the optimist... but I think a #3 type of guy is where he lands due to his shaky secondary offerings. If Jimenez, Tillman, and Gonzalez are healthy they are more than serviceable and should eat innings. Vance Worley is better than you think, ditching the cutter and reducing his WHIP to manageable levels in Pittsburgh. Better than what we had at #5 in 2015? Yeah, I think so. Look, this is the weakest part of the team and it is still really solid. Plus, I really like the age ranges and number of MLB innings for most of these guys.

The bullpen could even be better this year. Britton is getting really comfortable as one of the top closers in the game. Bringing back O'Day is huge for a host of reasons. Brach has excelled and should continue. Givens looks like the real deal. Matusz isn't purely a loogy, which is a good thing... solid if not spectacular. Dylan Bundy is a real wildcard here, but if he can stay healthy he could be one of the best 7th inning guys in the game. The pen is probably rounded out by another lefty, probably a TJ-CJ battle. I would contend that only having that one small question mark shows how stellar this group really is. It's easy to look at the big three closer types in the Bronx and think that we don't match up, but this bullpen is a championship group top-to-bottom. I also like the camaraderie and consistency here.

Okay, defense. It is a team chock full of really spectacular defenders, headlined by Machado's platinum glove. Even if you attempt to pick out weak spots we're really pretty good even with those, namely at 2B, 1B, and the corner OF spots... and everywhere else there is a gold glove candidate. In all seriousness, what is the biggest concern defensively? There isn't really one... Kim (supposedly a good glove and poor arm) is chubby? Reimold (presuming he is the RF) gets injured a lot? Guys, this could be the best defense in baseball. You should look up in November and see a staff full of FIP's that are higher than their baselines. Championship caliber.

Run scoring? Not a problem. Bringing back Davis does wonders for this lineup. OBP could still be an issue but Kim should help there and Trumbo will actually boost it a small amount from the DH slot. I also think we'll see Schoop, Hardy, and even Machado get on base a little more. It is a dangerous lineup 1 through 9 with power like crazy all over the place. I can't wait to see Trumbo as an every day DH... We should get a huge bump there. If Hardy is healthy we will see improvement there, and he could get 20+ HR from the nine hole. We know what Reimold can do when healthy... he's not an all-star but he is an above average hitter with some pop. Schoop takes another step. The heart of the order is all-stars in Machado, Jones, and Davis. Wieters is betting on himself on a one-year deal and I am betting we'll see .260 and 23 HR, easy... which is fantastic from the catcher. Dangerous 1 through 9 with an all-star core. Championship caliber.

The bench has a catcher in Caleb Joseph who would start for probably 15 or so MLB teams. We've got Flaherty who is proven and comfortable in the utility role. Rickard is the annual Rule V guy, but he could stick as a plus defender at all three outfield spots and as a pinch runner. The last spot is really the only significant question mark on the 25-man roster... If a different starting RF is brought in then it's Reimold. If not, it's probably Paredes... who ran extremely hot and cold last year. If not Jimmy, it could be the best performer among Alvarez, Urrutia, Terdoslavich, Navarro, etc. Most likely a lefty like Navarro. No matter who rounds out this squad it really is a strong and versatile bench. We're not really relying on unproven guys or has-been's here since we've got Joseph and Flaherty in their roles and Rickard is really a PR type of guy. The last slot will be whomever wins the job. This is the sort of unit that is a luxury to have and the kind of group that championship teams have.

I'm not going to list the entire Norfolk roster here, but if you aren't familiar with what Dan has done with that group give it a look. The basic idea is one of Dan's hallmarks - depth everywhere. Plan B... and Plan C... and emergency Plan D. You can look at any position on the field and project what happens in case of an injury, two injuries, or even three injuries. Our replacements are better than most and there is a wide array of them. Go ahead and take a look at that Norfolk roster... That's what championship teams do.

Buck Showalter is one of the very best there is. Period. His staff is exceptional. We are in good hands with this staff.

Intangibles are just that... You can't really get your arms around them... but when you think of this team you think of an uncommon level of consistency and of a clubhouse that is a very favorable environment. I don't really know of any problems from a personality standpoint and there is an established and vocal leader both on the offense with Adam Jones and in the pitching staff with Darren O'Day. They do an incredible job of taking care of business and simultaneously having a lot of fun. I don't think any team in the major leagues can match this level of consistency for a team with so many guys in the middle of their prime years. Most of these guys are in that 28-32 range which is the peak for a ballplayer. Just two years ago they made it to the ALCS... They know what it takes and they are hungry. Ownership demonstrated that they will pay the cash to keep the band together with pretty sizable deals not only to Davis and O'Day but the QO to Wieters and past contracts with Hardy and Jones.

All in all, it is a team without any real weaknesses with deep depth great coaching and leadership with just about everyone in their prime. It is a team ready to win it all this year. How long until February 19th!?

Well, that is the optimistic view, alright.

I had to get these two posts out of my head. Like the angel and the demon on the shoulders.

I'd like to take a look at the 2016 Orioles from both the purely optimistic view and also from the opposite vantage point.

The optimist actually has a lot to say...

A baseball team is arguably made up of eight components: 1. Rotation; 2. Bullpen; 3. Defense; 4. Offense (Run Scoring); 5. Bench; 6. Minor League Depth (as it bolsters the MLB squad); 7. Coaching; and, 8. Intangibles. With the exception of the starting rotation the 2016 Orioles are championship caliber in every one of these areas. And, honestly, the rotation is under-rated.

Let's take them in order and slay the rotation dragon first. Is this rotation relying on has been's? Unproven prospects? No and no. Is it a bunch of #3 and #4 types? Well, okay, yes... with the potential exception of Gausman who could legitimately graduate to the TOR caliber this year. I don't see it, even though I'm the optimist... but I think a #3 type of guy is where he lands due to his shaky secondary offerings. If Jimenez, Tillman, and Gonzalez are healthy they are more than serviceable and should eat innings. Vance Worley is better than you think, ditching the cutter and reducing his WHIP to manageable levels in Pittsburgh. Better than what we had at #5 in 2015? Yeah, I think so. Look, this is the weakest part of the team and it is still really solid. Plus, I really like the age ranges and number of MLB innings for most of these guys.

The bullpen could even be better this year. Britton is getting really comfortable as one of the top closers in the game. Bringing back O'Day is huge for a host of reasons. Brach has excelled and should continue. Givens looks like the real deal. Matusz isn't purely a loogy, which is a good thing... solid if not spectacular. Dylan Bundy is a real wildcard here, but if he can stay healthy he could be one of the best 7th inning guys in the game. The pen is probably rounded out by another lefty, probably a TJ-CJ battle. I would contend that only having that one small question mark shows how stellar this group really is. It's easy to look at the big three closer types in the Bronx and think that we don't match up, but this bullpen is a championship group top-to-bottom. I also like the camaraderie and consistency here.

Okay, defense. It is a team chock full of really spectacular defenders, headlined by Machado's platinum glove. Even if you attempt to pick out weak spots we're really pretty good even with those, namely at 2B, 1B, and the corner OF spots... and everywhere else there is a gold glove candidate. In all seriousness, what is the biggest concern defensively? There isn't really one... Kim (supposedly a good glove and poor arm) is chubby? Reimold (presuming he is the RF) gets injured a lot? Guys, this could be the best defense in baseball. You should look up in November and see a staff full of FIP's that are higher than their baselines. Championship caliber.

Run scoring? Not a problem. Bringing back Davis does wonders for this lineup. OBP could still be an issue but Kim should help there and Trumbo will actually boost it a small amount from the DH slot. I also think we'll see Schoop, Hardy, and even Machado get on base a little more. It is a dangerous lineup 1 through 9 with power like crazy all over the place. I can't wait to see Trumbo as an every day DH... We should get a huge bump there. If Hardy is healthy we will see improvement there, and he could get 20+ HR from the nine hole. We know what Reimold can do when healthy... he's not an all-star but he is an above average hitter with some pop. Schoop takes another step. The heart of the order is all-stars in Machado, Jones, and Davis. Wieters is betting on himself on a one-year deal and I am betting we'll see .260 and 23 HR, easy... which is fantastic from the catcher. Dangerous 1 through 9 with an all-star core. Championship caliber.

The bench has a catcher in Caleb Joseph who would start for probably 15 or so MLB teams. We've got Flaherty who is proven and comfortable in the utility role. Rickard is the annual Rule V guy, but he could stick as a plus defender at all three outfield spots and as a pinch runner. The last spot is really the only significant question mark on the 25-man roster... If a different starting RF is brought in then it's Reimold. If not, it's probably Paredes... who ran extremely hot and cold last year. If not Jimmy, it could be the best performer among Alvarez, Urrutia, Terdoslavich, Navarro, etc. Most likely a lefty like Navarro. No matter who rounds out this squad it really is a strong and versatile bench. We're not really relying on unproven guys or has-been's here since we've got Joseph and Flaherty in their roles and Rickard is really a PR type of guy. The last slot will be whomever wins the job. This is the sort of unit that is a luxury to have and the kind of group that championship teams have.

I'm not going to list the entire Norfolk roster here, but if you aren't familiar with what Dan has done with that group give it a look. The basic idea is one of Dan's hallmarks - depth everywhere. Plan B... and Plan C... and emergency Plan D. You can look at any position on the field and project what happens in case of an injury, two injuries, or even three injuries. Our replacements are better than most and there is a wide array of them. Go ahead and take a look at that Norfolk roster... That's what championship teams do.

Buck Showalter is one of the very best there is. Period. His staff is exceptional. We are in good hands with this staff.

Intangibles are just that... You can't really get your arms around them... but when you think of this team you think of an uncommon level of consistency and of a clubhouse that is a very favorable environment. I don't really know of any problems from a personality standpoint and there is an established and vocal leader both on the offense with Adam Jones and in the pitching staff with Darren O'Day. They do an incredible job of taking care of business and simultaneously having a lot of fun. I don't think any team in the major leagues can match this level of consistency for a team with so many guys in the middle of their prime years. Most of these guys are in that 28-32 range which is the peak for a ballplayer. Just two years ago they made it to the ALCS... They know what it takes and they are hungry. Ownership demonstrated that they will pay the cash to keep the band together with pretty sizable deals not only to Davis and O'Day but the QO to Wieters and past contracts with Hardy and Jones.

All in all, it is a team without any real weaknesses with deep depth great coaching and leadership with just about everyone in their prime. It is a team ready to win it all this year. How long until February 19th!?

You are too optimistic for me. I'll wait to see the games.

Pitchers and catchers report in two weeks. It's time for optimism.

Pitchers and catchers report in two weeks. It's time for optimism.

Some folks are already there.

I think it is reasonable to be optimistic about the offense. We should outscore last year's team, if we have average luck with injuries and other factors. I'm having a hard time being optimistic about the pitching, even though I expect some bounce-back from Tillman and Gonzo.

I think it is reasonable to be optimistic about the offense. We should outscore last year's team, if we have average luck with injuries and other factors. I'm having a hard time being optimistic about the pitching, even though I expect some bounce-back from Tillman and Gonzo.

Ubaldo still has some upside. And Gausman could make Chen look shabby. Still missing someone though.

I'm not optimistic, but I'm hopeful.

I'm not optimistic, but I'm hopeful.

That's a good way to put it. Me too.

That's a good way to put it. Me too.

I'd like to take a look at the 2016 Orioles from both the purely optimistic view and also from the opposite vantage point.

The optimist actually has a lot to say...

A baseball team is arguably made up of eight components: 1. Rotation; 2. Bullpen; 3. Defense; 4. Offense (Run Scoring); 5. Bench; 6. Minor League Depth (as it bolsters the MLB squad); 7. Coaching; and, 8. Intangibles. With the exception of the starting rotation the 2016 Orioles are championship caliber in every one of these areas. And, honestly, the rotation is under-rated.

Let's take them in order and slay the rotation dragon first. Is this rotation relying on has been's? Unproven prospects? No and no. Is it a bunch of #3 and #4 types? Well, okay, yes... with the potential exception of Gausman who could legitimately graduate to the TOR caliber this year. I don't see it, even though I'm the optimist... but I think a #3 type of guy is where he lands due to his shaky secondary offerings. If Jimenez, Tillman, and Gonzalez are healthy they are more than serviceable and should eat innings. Vance Worley is better than you think, ditching the cutter and reducing his WHIP to manageable levels in Pittsburgh. Better than what we had at #5 in 2015? Yeah, I think so. Look, this is the weakest part of the team and it is still really solid. Plus, I really like the age ranges and number of MLB innings for most of these guys.

The bullpen could even be better this year. Britton is getting really comfortable as one of the top closers in the game. Bringing back O'Day is huge for a host of reasons. Brach has excelled and should continue. Givens looks like the real deal. Matusz isn't purely a loogy, which is a good thing... solid if not spectacular. Dylan Bundy is a real wildcard here, but if he can stay healthy he could be one of the best 7th inning guys in the game. The pen is probably rounded out by another lefty, probably a TJ-CJ battle. I would contend that only having that one small question mark shows how stellar this group really is. It's easy to look at the big three closer types in the Bronx and think that we don't match up, but this bullpen is a championship group top-to-bottom. I also like the camaraderie and consistency here.

Okay, defense. It is a team chock full of really spectacular defenders, headlined by Machado's platinum glove. Even if you attempt to pick out weak spots we're really pretty good even with those, namely at 2B, 1B, and the corner OF spots... and everywhere else there is a gold glove candidate. In all seriousness, what is the biggest concern defensively? There isn't really one... Kim (supposedly a good glove and poor arm) is chubby? Reimold (presuming he is the RF) gets injured a lot? Guys, this could be the best defense in baseball. You should look up in November and see a staff full of FIP's that are higher than their baselines. Championship caliber.

Run scoring? Not a problem. Bringing back Davis does wonders for this lineup. OBP could still be an issue but Kim should help there and Trumbo will actually boost it a small amount from the DH slot. I also think we'll see Schoop, Hardy, and even Machado get on base a little more. It is a dangerous lineup 1 through 9 with power like crazy all over the place. I can't wait to see Trumbo as an every day DH... We should get a huge bump there. If Hardy is healthy we will see improvement there, and he could get 20+ HR from the nine hole. We know what Reimold can do when healthy... he's not an all-star but he is an above average hitter with some pop. Schoop takes another step. The heart of the order is all-stars in Machado, Jones, and Davis. Wieters is betting on himself on a one-year deal and I am betting we'll see .260 and 23 HR, easy... which is fantastic from the catcher. Dangerous 1 through 9 with an all-star core. Championship caliber.

The bench has a catcher in Caleb Joseph who would start for probably 15 or so MLB teams. We've got Flaherty who is proven and comfortable in the utility role. Rickard is the annual Rule V guy, but he could stick as a plus defender at all three outfield spots and as a pinch runner. The last spot is really the only significant question mark on the 25-man roster... If a different starting RF is brought in then it's Reimold. If not, it's probably Paredes... who ran extremely hot and cold last year. If not Jimmy, it could be the best performer among Alvarez, Urrutia, Terdoslavich, Navarro, etc. Most likely a lefty like Navarro. No matter who rounds out this squad it really is a strong and versatile bench. We're not really relying on unproven guys or has-been's here since we've got Joseph and Flaherty in their roles and Rickard is really a PR type of guy. The last slot will be whomever wins the job. This is the sort of unit that is a luxury to have and the kind of group that championship teams have.

I'm not going to list the entire Norfolk roster here, but if you aren't familiar with what Dan has done with that group give it a look. The basic idea is one of Dan's hallmarks - depth everywhere. Plan B... and Plan C... and emergency Plan D. You can look at any position on the field and project what happens in case of an injury, two injuries, or even three injuries. Our replacements are better than most and there is a wide array of them. Go ahead and take a look at that Norfolk roster... That's what championship teams do.

Buck Showalter is one of the very best there is. Period. His staff is exceptional. We are in good hands with this staff.

Intangibles are just that... You can't really get your arms around them... but when you think of this team you think of an uncommon level of consistency and of a clubhouse that is a very favorable environment. I don't really know of any problems from a personality standpoint and there is an established and vocal leader both on the offense with Adam Jones and in the pitching staff with Darren O'Day. They do an incredible job of taking care of business and simultaneously having a lot of fun. I don't think any team in the major leagues can match this level of consistency for a team with so many guys in the middle of their prime years. Most of these guys are in that 28-32 range which is the peak for a ballplayer. Just two years ago they made it to the ALCS... They know what it takes and they are hungry. Ownership demonstrated that they will pay the cash to keep the band together with pretty sizable deals not only to Davis and O'Day but the QO to Wieters and past contracts with Hardy and Jones.

All in all, it is a team without any real weaknesses with deep depth great coaching and leadership with just about everyone in their prime. It is a team ready to win it all this year. How long until February 19th!?

Buck likes to look on the bright side of life.

My very optimistic offensive projections for the current starting lineup (assuming health):

C- Matt Wieters - .260/.320/.450

1B- Chris Davis - .260/.360/.560

2B- Jonathan Schoop - .285/.320/.480

SS- J.J. Hardy - .260/.310/.400

3B- Manny Machado - .295/.380/.520

LF- Hyun-Soo Kim - .275/.340/.360

CF- Adam Jones - .285/.320/.490

RF- Nolan Reimold - .260/.320/.400

DH- Mark Trumbo - .260/.310/.450

Obviously, each individual line is the optimistic view for that player and even the most optimistic person cannot assume each and very player could possible hit each and every number.

My very optimistic offensive projections for the current starting lineup (assuming health):

C- Matt Wieters - .260/.320/.450

1B- Chris Davis - .260/.360/.560

2B- Jonathan Schoop - .285/.320/.480

SS- J.J. Hardy - .260/.310/.400

3B- Manny Machado - .295/.380/.520

LF- Hyun-Soo Kim - .275/.340/.360

CF- Adam Jones - .285/.320/.490

RF- Nolan Reimold - .260/.320/.400

DH- Mark Trumbo - .260/.310/.450

Obviously, each individual line is the optimistic view for that player and even the most optimistic person cannot assume each and very player could possible hit each and every number.

I used to do a thread each year where I would give for each player my best case/mid-case/worst case, and then do some team projections assuming a couple of scenarios. Like you, I sort of assumed that even in a good year, only 3-4 guys would hit their best case, and one would probably hit his worst case. In a bad year, it would be the other way around. What I usually found was that the team "best case" was about 12 OPS points higher than the "mid-case," which was about 12 points higher than the "worst case." The last time I did it was for 2013. My mid-case projection was .735; we came in at .744. So, it was a pretty good year, highlighted by Chris Davis posting a 1.004 OPS, which was 134 points above what I had pegged as his "best case."

Looking at your list, I think the "best case" is better than you projected for everyone except Hardy and Manny. I'd certainly be very happy if your projections came to fruition, however. FYI, I have been keeping a chart of what ZiPS, Steamer etc. have projected for each of our players, that can be found here: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/151377-The-2016-Offensive-Projections-Thread?highlight=projections Right now the team projections run from .723 to .741 OPS, using certain assumptions I made about how the plate appearances will be allocated (last year's OPS was .728).