Orioles' W-L in last year's starting pitchers' starts

Wei-Yin Chen 19-12 (11-8)

Ubaldo Jimenez 18-14 (12-10)

Chris Tillman 15-16 (11-11)

Miguel Gonzalez 12-14 (9-12)

Kevin Gausman 7-10 (3-7 as a starter)

Bud Norris 4-7 (2-6 as a starter)

Mike Wright 3-6 (2-5 as a starter)

Tyler Wilson 3-2 (1-2 as a starter)

People remember how bad Bud Norris was last year, but contrary to popular opinion, his starts were not an automatic loss and eliminating his starts does not make up for the loss of Chen.

Wei-Yin Chen 19-12 (11-8)

Ubaldo Jimenez 18-14 (12-10)

Chris Tillman 15-16 (11-11)

Miguel Gonzalez 12-14 (9-12)

Kevin Gausman 7-10 (3-7 as a starter)

Bud Norris 4-7 (2-6 as a starter)

Mike Wright 3-6 (2-5 as a starter)

Tyler Wilson 3-2 (1-2 as a starter)

People remember how bad Bud Norris was last year, but contrary to popular opinion, his starts were not an automatic loss and eliminating his starts does not make up for the loss of Chen.

The Orioles were about a .666 club with Tillman on the mound the 3 previous years. He and Gausman will have to carry us to an extent.

Would you sign up right now for the Orioles to be 2 games over .500 if Gonzo and Ubaldo combine for about 60 starts? If course what the Orioles get out of their number 5 starter plays into that thinking.

Oriole were 55-27 in Tillman's starts from 2012-2014.

2012. 10-5

2013. 21-12

2014. 24-10

I would sign up right now for 18-14 from Ubaldo.

If 3-5 pitch .500 ball can Tillman and Gausman pitch at least 18 games over .500 to get to 90 wins? 40-22 combined? If you get 4 games over from 3-5 that gives some leeway to 38-24 from the top 2.

Interesting stuff Frobby.

Compared to 2014, Tillman and Norris had the 2 biggest differences in performance (I think we all knew that). But purely looking at W/L, Miguel had only a delta of 4 games.

		2015	2014Wei-Yin Chen	19-12	19-12U. Jimenez	18-14	9-13C. Tillman	15-16	24-10M. Gonzalez	12 -14	14-12Kevin Gausman	7-10	10-10Bud Norris	4-7	19-9

Tillman is everything.

Nobody is everything. If Tillman reverts to 2014 form, and everyone else stays the same and we get a significant downgrade from Chen in the other spot, we end up in about the same spot as this year.

Nobody is everything. If Tillman reverts to 2014 form, and everyone else stays the same and we get a significant downgrade from Chen in the other spot, we end up in about the same spot as this year.

Pretty much. We need to add another solid .500+ pitcher. And I'm not sure if Gallardo is that.

Last year the Rangers were 19-14 when he started, in 2014, Milwaukee was 12-20. Is that worth the gamble?

Very good thread. The loss of Chen looks more serious now.

Very good thread. The loss of Chen looks more serious now.

Chen's loss is serious already. I think we'll be ok, but it'll be fun to watch this season pan out.

Fun if it pans out, yes.

Horrible if it doesn't

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Gausman and Tillman will more than make up for Chen, who benefited from a transcendent O's offense. Chen won't be a winner anymore, good front office decision to cut him loose and save the money for Davis, well worth all those years. Especially as Angelos made him take do much deferred money. Tillman will be top 5 Cy Young candidate.

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Replace Chen's 19 W with 15 from Gausman, replace Norris/Wright/Wilson etc. with a FA SP who gives you 10 W, leave every thing else the same, and you have potentially a 89 W team, given that the bullpen usually combines for 20 or so W.

Wei-Yin Chen 19-12 (11-8)

Ubaldo Jimenez 18-14 (12-10)

Chris Tillman 15-16 (11-11)

Miguel Gonzalez 12-14 (9-12)

Kevin Gausman 7-10 (3-7 as a starter)

Bud Norris 4-7 (2-6 as a starter)

Mike Wright 3-6 (2-5 as a starter)

Tyler Wilson 3-2 (1-2 as a starter)

People remember how bad Bud Norris was last year, but contrary to popular opinion, his starts were not an automatic loss and eliminating his starts does not make up for the loss of Chen.

The loss of Chen is going a big regret by the Orioles.

The starters records are not just a reflection of how they pitched but also how the defense played and how the relievers pitched.

The starters records are not just a reflection of how they pitched but also how the defense played and how the relievers pitched.

...and we are assuming the bullpen will be great again, which may not be the case though we expect it.

Kevin Gausman 7-10 (3-7 as a starter)

That is what has to improve most IMO; the team needs to win more games that Gausman starts. I believe the stability of starting every turn in the rotation will help KG.

Also, if the rumor about Gallardo is true, he will provide additional stability in that rotation. Probably not 19-12 but you never know.