Orioles Home Run pace (compared to the team record)

As we all expect the Orioles to hit many many homeruns this season and the projections had us in the neighborhood of the team record for homeruns in a season (264, by the 1997 Seattle Mariners), I've been tracking the Orioles pace versus both the average per game pace and versus the actual per game results of the '97 Mariners.

The Orioles went through a bit of a drought on the road trip through KC and Tampa, but are still ahead of the Mariners' total as of the end of April.

Notes for the April graph:

- The average per game pace to reach 264 homeruns is roughly 1.63 per game. As more homers are hit in warmer weather, it is no surprise that both the O's and the Mariners are behind this pace in April.

- This is through 23 games for both the Orioles and Mariners. The Mariners actually played four more games in April, finishing with 33 for the month.

- Ken Griffey Jr. was the Mariners home run leader that April, with 13(!). He went on to hit 56 that year.

- (As an aside, poking around on Baseball Reference for the Mariners' game logs sent me on a nice trip down memory lane of the '97 Division Series and Jeff Reboulet versus the Big Unit. Did you know, in his career, Reboulet had 66 PA against Randy Johnson, 45 against Chuck Finley, and no more than 26 against any other pitcher?)

I'll be tracking this all year long, and if people like, I can post monthly updates to the Hangout as well. Of course, it's still very early; if the O's completely fall off the pace, I won't bother. To keep it in perspective, here is the 162 game graph. The Mariners went crazy in late June/early July and then September to set the record.

Very cool. Thanks.

Yes, please do! Could you add the franchise record of 257 team home runs in 1996?

Also it's worth noting that the Orioles don't even have the current lead in baseball, that belongs to the Colorado Rockies with a whopping 39 as of this morning.

I'd be interested in seeing an updated chart. Currently the O's have 99 homers in 62 games, on pace for 259 over 162 games. We've opened up a 5 HR lead over the second place team, the Mariners, who have played one more game than the O's.

I'd be interested in seeing an updated chart. Currently the O's have 99 homers in 62 games, on pace for 259 over 162 games. We've opened up a 5 HR lead over the second place team, the Mariners, who have played one more game than the O's.

Not a comparison to the Mariners' all-time record, but here's a comparison of the 2016 Orioles to the club-record 1996 Orioles: https://www.pressboxonline.com/2016/06/11/tracking-the-orioles-chase-for-home-run-history-60-game-checkpoint

o

The Orioles surpassed 200 home runs for the season in yesterday's loss to the Yankees.

This is the 5th consecutive season in which they have done so.

2012: ) 214

2013: ) 212

2014: ) 211

2015: ) 217

2016: ) 202 *

* There are still 33 games left to be played in the 2016 season.

This was the 2nd-fastest time that an Orioles team has gotten to 200 home runs. The 1996 team reached that mark in their 126th game of said season.

SOURCE: Steve Melewski

o

o

UPDATE ........... the 2016 Orioles are now at 245 home runs overall, with 6 games still left to be played in the season.

This is the 5th consecutive season in which they have surpassed the 200-home run mark.

2012: ) 214

2013: ) 212

2014: ) 211

2015: ) 217

2016: ) 245 *

* There are still 6 games left to be played in the 2016 season.

This (the 2016 Orioles) was the 2nd-fastest time that an Orioles team has gotten to 200 home runs. The 1996 team reached that mark in their 126th game of said season.

ORIGINAL SOURCE: Steve Melewski

o

Unlikely they'll get to the team record of 257, but not impossible. Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium are both pretty homer-friendly.

Unlikely they'll get to the team record of 257, but not impossible. Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium are both pretty homer-friendly.

It will depend on how homer-friendly our opponents are on these particular days!

I'd like to see them get close, not because I particularly care about the team record, but because if they get the HR stroke going this week it should mean they can nail down the 2nd wild card and might mean they're challenging Toronto for home field.

o

UPDATE ........... the 2016 Orioles are now at 245 home runs overall, with 6 games still left to be played in the season.

This is the 5th consecutive season in which they have surpassed the 200-home run mark.

2012: ) 214

2013: ) 212

2014: ) 211

2015: ) 217

2016: ) 245 *

* There are still 6 games left to be played in the 2016 season.

This (the 2016 Orioles) was the 2nd-fastest time that an Orioles team has gotten to 200 home runs. The 1996 team reached that mark in their 126th game of said season.

ORIGINAL SOURCE: Steve Melewski

o

o

2 more home runs against the Blue Jays tonight.

247 on the season overall.

Three so far tonight.