The Rays Series, June 24-26

The Rays come into town for 4 games in 3 days, in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. These are not the Rays we are used to seeing -- they're a slugging team that has hit 100 homers in 70 games, but their pitching has been very average (8th in ERA). Their offense does not score a lot of runs despite their long-ball tendencies (14th in runs scored).

Moore (3-4, 4.90) vs. Gallardo (1-2, 6.26)

Andriese (6-0, 2.88) vs. Gausman (0-5, 4.37)

Odorizzi (3-3, 3.63) vs. Tillman (10-1, 3.11)

Smyly (2-7, 4.78) vs. Wilson (3-5, 4.19)

Matt Moore has been inconsistent, but has pitched well in his last two starts. He's 4-5, 3.84 ERA against the Orioles in his career, with one loss this year when he allowed 3 runs in 7 innings but lost 3-1. Gallardo was credible in his first start since coming off the DL. He has not pitched against Tampa this year, but is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA against them in his career.

Matt Andriese began the year as a starter but was moved to the bullpen in early June, so this will be his first start since June 10. I'm not sure why he was sent to the pen in the first place, as he was carrying a 2.82 ERA as a starter. He was hit hard in his last relief appearance on June 22. He hasn't seen the O's this year, and last year he allowed 4 runs in 3 innings of relief work against the Birds. Gausman has struggled lately, with a 6.32 ERA in his last six starts, going 0-4 in that span. He made his season debut against Tampa on April 25, allowing 1 run in 5 IP but losing a 2-0 decision. In his career he is 2-4 with a 5.65 ERA against the Rays.

Jake Odorizzi has been consistently solid this year, with no big trend coming into this game. In two prior starts vs. the Orioles this year, he allowed 4 runs in 6 IP on April 10 and 1 run in 5 IP on April 26. In his career he is 2-3 with a 4.64 ERA against the Birds. Tillman has been the Orioles' only consistent pitcher, and has been pretty solid of late. He has beaten the Rays twice this year, allowing 1 run in 5 IP on April 8 and shutting them out for 6.2 innings on April 27. For his career, he's 7-9 with a 3.98 ERA against the Rays.

Drew Smyly has been in a bit of a funk, with a 6.60 ERA over his last 8 starts, though there were a couple of good starts sprinkled in there. We have not faced him this year, but in the past he has been kryptonite against us, 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA. He's had his ups and downs but has thrown two consecutive quality starts. Wilson hasn't faced Tampa this year. He had one start against them last year and got knocked around, 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

The O's have been averaging over 6 runs a game in June, while Tampa has averaged only 3.75 R/G this month. Evan Longoria has been a bright spot lately, posting a 1.100 OPS with 9 homers in June. Steve Pearce, who also was red hot in June, is on the DL now. In short, this is a much weaker lineup than we've been facing the last couple of weeks, though they do have a lot of HR power and are capable of exploding.

The Rays' bullpen has a deceptively mediocre 4.08 ERA, though 9 of the 13 pitchers who have thrown in relief for them have ERA's under 4.00. Still, other than their closer, Alex Colome (1.76 ERA, 19 saves), they don't really have a dominant reliever. We should have the edge here, though the O's pen has struggled recently.

Overall, Tampa is a slumping team that is in last place, doesn't score a lot of runs, and hasn't had quite the level of excellent starting pitching we are used to seeing from them. I think if the O's stay patient at the plate, they have a good chance to take this series.

Good chance to beat up on a team that is down, and gain some more breathing space away from 2nd place.

Good chance to beat up on a team that is down, and gain some more breathing space away from 2nd place.

Yeah, it'll be nice if we can win 3 of 4 while Boston loses 2 of 3 in Texas and Toronto does the same vs the White Sox.

Lets sweep them! Get some separation in the standings.

The only bad thing about the Rays being in last place is that Id rather see the Skankees there! The Rays can work on a remedy for that scenario AFTER they get out of Baltimore, but not before.

I hate the fact they are on a 7 game skid. The odds of them losing 11 in a row are slim.

Shoot for 3-1 I guess.

I hate the fact they are on a 7 game skid. The odds of them losing 11 in a row are slim.

Shoot for 3-1 I guess.

My brain say, you are correct.

My heart says, SWEEP!!!!!!!

No Archer. Does Kim play both parts of the DH with RHP starting?

No Archer. Does Kim play both parts of the DH with RHP starting?

I think Manny, Jones, Davis, Schoop and Trumbo are locks for both games, other than that, I suspect Buck will use his bench.

Good chance to beat up on a team that is down, and gain some more breathing space away from 2nd place.

It's a good thing that the Orioles themselves are not thinking this way.

It's a sure way to:

A) Get overconfident.

B) Put pressure on themselves and try too hard.

C) Get down on themselves and start worrying should they happen to lose the opening game of the series ...... and subsequently feel even more pressure to win the 3 remaining games.

What they will do is what they always do ...... try their best to win tonight's game. And should they lose tonight, they will do what they did against the Padres, which is put the loss behind them (no matter how "crushing" it may seem), and go out and try to win tomorrow afternoon's game.

The only time that they will even start to think about gaining ground on other teams is in the final 2 weeks of the season (should they still be in contention for a playoff berth at that time.)

It's a good thing that the Orioles themselves are not thinking this way.

Of course, the team never should looked at it that way.

But, as a fan, thats my right!

Of course, the team never should looked at it that way.

But, as a fan, that's my right!

Yes, it is.

If you don't mind me giving you my own unsolicited, rat's ass of an opinion, I have found that as a fan, it is easier on my own psyche to look at things the way that the the Orioles themselves do. It makes losses like the ones against the Padres and the one the day before that against the Rangers easier to deal with.

Yes, it is.

If you don't mind me giving you my own unsolicited, rat's ass of an opinion, I have found that as a fan, it is easier on my own psyche to look at things the way that the the Orioles themselves do. It makes losses like the ones against the Padres and the one the day before that against the Rangers easier to deal with.

Heck, thats what we do here in OH, we tell others our opinions.

You never know who will win a ballgame or a series until it's played. Even when Ubaldo is on the mound. The Twins came in here last summer in a terrible slump, and swept a four-game series. I like to look ahead and think about what I think should happen, but I'm always fully aware that the actual outcome could be totally different, and it doesn't make losing feel any worse or winning feel any better just because I thought another outcome was more likely.

My brain say, you are correct.

My heart says, SWEEP!!!!!!!

It's okay, that's not how statistics work.

The Rays come into town for 4 games in 3 days, in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. These are not the Rays we are used to seeing -- they're a slugging team that has hit 100 homers in 70 games, but their pitching has been very average (8th in ERA). Their offense does not score a lot of runs despite their long-ball tendencies (14th in runs scored).

Moore (3-4, 4.90) vs. Gallardo (1-2, 6.26)

Andriese (6-0, 2.88) vs. Gausman (0-5, 4.37)

Odorizzi (3-3, 3.63) vs. Tillman (10-1, 3.11)

Smyly (2-7, 4.78) vs. Wilson (3-5, 4.19)

Matt Moore has been inconsistent, but has pitched well in his last two starts. He's 4-5, 3.84 ERA against the Orioles in his career, with one loss this year when he allowed 3 runs in 7 innings but lost 3-1. Gallardo was credible in his first start since coming off the DL. He has not pitched against Tampa this year, but is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA against them in his career.

Matt Andriese began the year as a starter but was moved to the bullpen in early June, so this will be his first start since June 10. I'm not sure why he was sent to the pen in the first place, as he was carrying a 2.82 ERA as a starter. He was hit hard in his last relief appearance on June 22. He hasn't seen the O's this year, and last year he allowed 4 runs in 3 innings of relief work against the Birds. Gausman has struggled lately, with a 6.32 ERA in his last six starts, going 0-4 in that span. He made his season debut against Tampa on April 25, allowing 1 run in 5 IP but losing a 2-0 decision. In his career he is 2-4 with a 5.65 ERA against the Rays.

Jake Odorizzi has been consistently solid this year, with no big trend coming into this game. In two prior starts vs. the Orioles this year, he allowed 4 runs in 6 IP on April 10 and 1 run in 5 IP on April 26. In his career he is 2-3 with a 4.64 ERA against the Birds. Tillman has been the Orioles' only consistent pitcher, and has been pretty solid of late. He has beaten the Rays twice this year, allowing 1 run in 5 IP on April 8 and shutting them out for 6.2 innings on April 27. For his career, he's 7-9 with a 3.98 ERA against the Rays.

Drew Smyly has been in a bit of a funk, with a 6.60 ERA over his last 8 starts, though there were a couple of good starts sprinkled in there. We have not faced him this year, but in the past he has been kryptonite against us, 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA. He's had his ups and downs but has thrown two consecutive quality starts. Wilson hasn't faced Tampa this year. He had one start against them last year and got knocked around, 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

The O's have been averaging over 6 runs a game in June, while Tampa has averaged only 3.75 R/G this month. Evan Longoria has been a bright spot lately, posting a 1.100 OPS with 9 homers in June. Steve Pearce, who also was red hot in June, is on the DL now. In short, this is a much weaker lineup than we've been facing the last couple of weeks, though they do have a lot of HR power and are capable of exploding.

The Rays' bullpen has a deceptively mediocre 4.08 ERA, though 9 of the 13 pitchers who have thrown in relief for them have ERA's under 4.00. Still, other than their closer, Alex Colome (1.76 ERA, 19 saves), they don't really have a dominant reliever. We should have the edge here, though the O's pen has struggled recently.

Overall, Tampa is a slumping team that is in last place, doesn't score a lot of runs, and hasn't had quite the level of excellent starting pitching we are used to seeing from them. I think if the O's stay patient at the plate, they have a good chance to take this series.

I sure hope so.