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Thread: If Loewen was a Yankees prospect
06-27-2006 10:47 AM #1
If Loewen was a Yankees prospect
Wouldn't we be laughing at Yankee fans or media who were proclaiming this guy as a future #1 starter? Let's try to be objective here. I'm not saying it's impossible that Loewen becomes a #1 or #2 starter. I'm just saying that it looks improbable to me. We have a pitcher who came with much fanfare as the #4 overall selection in the draft and all of the pre-draft hype that goes along with it. Let's take a look at what we know or at least what I think we know. We have a pitcher who has pitched to approximately a 1.50 WHIP at every step along the way. I think that's not so good but I honestly don't know the ranges that distinguish good, bad, great, etc. He's also a guy who we know firsthand, now, throws in the low 90's. Most of the time in the very low 90's. He's a guy who's fastball has pretty good movement but who has very poor command of it. He's a guy who has a very good curveball at times but it's also inconsistent. His changeup is a work in progress and not more than a show pitch at this point. IMO, he is Andy Pettite without the command. What is Andy Pettite without command? Not very good, IMO. Has he shown any signs of conquering this command problem? Not really. Erik Bedard was a more complete pitcher when he came to the majors and his stuff was/is arguably just as good, if not better. And Bedard, in his third year, is still struggling to become a good pitcher. What makes us think that Adam Loewen will become a good pitcher anytime soon, if ever? Answer: Because he's an Oriole prospect. Objectivity now!
This is not intended as an Adam Loewen bash. I almost feel bad writing it because Gaz & maybe even Adam might read it. But it's an Oriole's fan's opinion.
06-27-2006 10:55 AM #2
If Loewen was a Yankee prospect, he would be traded away so that they could get some early to mid 30s power hitter to bat 8th in their lineup of all-stars.
But as for Loewen the Oriole, I don't see any reason to not be positive about him. Sure he has command issues, but his attitude is right and he knows what he has to fix.
I'd rather have Loewen saying my command is off and I need to correct as opposed to Cabrera saying I walk people thats just what I do.
06-27-2006 10:58 AM #3
Loewen is indictive of this organization when it comes to pitching. Lots of raw talent, little control.
Not sure what else you can do with him, but hopefully the time back in the minors will give him a chance to clear his head and get back his control.
06-27-2006 11:11 AM #4
Ridiculous comparison. Bedard was 24 when he reached the majors and only pitched in 2 games that year. He was 6-10 his first full season. He's now 27 years old.
Loewen is 22 in his first major league season - so Bedard had two more years of experience when he made it to the show. Loewen has pitched in 7 games with 5 starts. He gets tons of ground balls and strikeouts - and this has been true in Baltimore, as well as his minor league stops.
And, I'd take Andy Pettite over any pitcher on our staff for the last 15 years - other than Mussina in his prime. I'd be thrilled if he becomes that good.
06-27-2006 11:29 AM #5
First of all, if Loewen was a Yankee prospect, he would be a top 15 prospect in all of baseball.
Secondly, it depends on what stats you looked at.
If you choose to look at stats like ERA, then you will say he is not that good.
If all you look at is his BB rate, you will say he has issues.
However, if you look further into his stats and see that he strikes out alot of batters, that he doesn't give up homers, that he had a great gb/fb ratio, that he is a big lefty hander and that he is 22, you may think differently.
Personally, i would look at his stats and drool over his potential assuming that all he needed was consistent mechanics to become a top young starter.
06-27-2006 11:31 AM #6Originally Posted by NCRaven
06-27-2006 11:47 AM #7
Pettitte didn't have great command until he got into his late 20s/early 30s
06-27-2006 11:53 AM #8Released Released
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I think we have a guy that could be a good starter but certainly doesnt seem to have the abillity to be a dominating pitcher. Bedard and Cabrerra have that kind of talent.
06-27-2006 11:54 AM #9Originally Posted by boogidownoriole
Anyone with his peripheral stats has a chance to be dominant...That is of course except for the BB rate.
06-27-2006 11:56 AM #10Originally Posted by boogidownoriole
Loewen has 4 major league pitches and has always been scouted to be #1-2. Cabrera will never succeed until he develops a changeup. Once he develops a changeup, his walk rate will come down because batters will be guessing more and swinging at his pitches that are out of the zone.
06-27-2006 11:59 AM #11Originally Posted by tywright
First of all, you're earlier comment about Pettitte not having command until his late 20's is just wrong, wrong, wrong! He had very good control in the minors and at the same age. His walk rates in the ML's range from very good to so-so at times.
I don't think I've see Loewen's four ML pitches. Are you saying that just because he throws a changeup that it's a ML pitch? Besides fastball (which acts like a cutter) ,curveball, and changeup what's his other pitch?
06-27-2006 11:59 AM #12
I understood what he said, and if I didn't make it clear, if he reaches his potential, and that potential is Andy Pettite, he will be one of our best pitching prospects ever. Below Palmer and Mussina, but on a par with any other pitcher that we have ever developed. At age 22, I can wait and be patient. I'm much more concerned about inconsistent 25 and 27 year olds than with Loewen.
Last edited by NCRaven; 06-27-2006 at 12:05 PM.
06-27-2006 12:07 PM #13Originally Posted by RZNJ
1995: 1.81 k/bb
06-27-2006 12:10 PM #14Originally Posted by RZNJ
06-27-2006 12:12 PM #15Originally Posted by tywright
Now you're playing around. You said his command was not very good until his late 20's. His first three years in the majors his walk rate ranged to just over 3 BB's per 9 IP in his first year, to well under 3 BB's per 9 IP in his next 2. Did it vary in the following years from so-so to very good? Yes. But you are still wrong in your earlier statement that it wasn't very good until his late 20's because it was very, very good in the minors and it was very good in his first 3 years in the majors. There is no comparison between him, Loewen, and command. If you want to change the statistc from BB's per IP to K/BB ratio that is ok, but that's a different argument. Just admit you lost this one first. You should have checked the stats before you posted and if you did then your interpretation is lacking.