Don't trade RLo.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who would you rather have:

1. A pitcher who allows 3 runs over 7 IP in each of 4 starts and then gets bombed for 7 runs in 3 IP in the 5th start, or

2. A pitcher who allows 4 runs over 7 IP in 4 starts and 5 runs in 7 IP in the 5th start.

The second pitcher has the lower ERA but I think the first pitcher would win more games.

Lopez's season was like that last year. He won 15 games because he pitched really well in a fair number of games. His ERA was mediocre because he really got shelled in some of his losses.

I'm not defending him, just making a point about the misleading nature of ERA.

I think that's a little misleading. Because the guy who gets bombed in 1/5th of his starts will win about 0% of those starts. He'll win some percent of the others, but that percentage will be less than 100. Let's say 60. In 30 starts that's 14 wins.

Pitcher #2... let's say he wins 50% of his starts where he allows four runs, but 35% of the ones where he allows five runs. That's 14 wins.

Maybe the details of that scenerio aren't exactly right, but the point is the guy who gets bombed 20 or 30% of the time will win almost none of those games, while the guy who just allows 4-5 runs a start will win half of those. I think the 4.90 is a pretty good measure.

[wildcard]

I think that's a little misleading. Because the guy who gets bombed in 1/5th of his starts will win about 0% of those starts. He'll win some percent of the others, but that percentage will be less than 100. Let's say 60. In 30 starts that's 14 wins.

Pitcher #2... let's say he wins 50% of his starts where he allows four runs, but 35% of the ones where he allows five runs. That's 14 wins.

Maybe the details of that scenerio aren't exactly right, but the point is the guy who gets bombed 20 or 30% of the time will win almost none of those games, while the guy who just allows 4-5 runs a start will win half of those. I think the 4.90 is a pretty good measure.

Not if you have a poor offense which the O's did last year. The guy who gives up 4 to 5 runs with the O's last year is a loser more times then not. The guy who gives up 3 or less 20 times is a 15 game winner.

[Mackus]

All in all he was a decent starter that most teams would like to have in the bottom half of their rotation.

I dont know if I'd rather have a guy that gives that either has a quality start or bombs or a guy who goes 6-7 IP with 3-5 ER each start.

Either way, the guys record is in no way in his hands. All that matters is how many runs are scored on a given night. You could have these two pitchers on your team and one could go 10-15 and the other 15-10, or it could be the other way around.

If a pitchers record has very little to do with how well he pitches, why should we bother looking at it? Especially to determine how they are going to do down the road. Sure, a pitchers overall win/loss record over a career means something, but even that can be very prone to outside conditions, such as how good the team was over those seasons.

I don't think W/L means anything for a guy who's only pitched in a handful of seasons, like Rodrigo.

[Mackus]

Not if you have a poor offense which the O's did last year. The guy who gives up 4 to 5 runs with the O's last year is a loser more times then not. The guy who gives up 3 or less 20 times is a 15 game winner.

But the offense has no affect on how good the pitcher is pitching, only on wether he gets the win or not. Which is why wins are meaningless.

[Mark Carver]

You can pick on the 4.90 ERA if you want but baseball is about winning games and he won 15.

Yeah, Rodrigo Lopez outpitched Roger Clemens in 2005... afterall Clemens only won 13 games to Lopez 15!

[Nuclear Dish]

Because the guy who gets bombed in 1/5th of his starts will win about 0% of those starts.

the guy who gets bombed 20 or 30% of the time will win almost none of those games

Hey Jon, can you tell me a single scenario in which the starting pitcher who gives up 7 ER in 3 IP gets a win? Last I checked, a starter has to go 5 IP to get a win.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hey Jon, can you tell me a single scenario in which the starting pitcher who gives up 7 ER in 3 IP gets a win? Last I checked, a starter has to go 5 IP to get a win.

Yes, it could happen in the World Baseball Classic, or the All Star Game!

Also, in a rain-shortened five-inning game a starting pitcher could get the win allowing 7 ER in 4 IP.

[Nuclear Dish]

In most cases I would agree that a 4.90 stinks. And it is not wonderful in RLo case. But in 2005 he:

Pitched 17 games where he when at least 6 innings and allows 3 or less runs - thus the 15 wins
Plus 3 games where he went between 5 to 6 innings and allowed 3 for less runs
Pitched 15 games where he allowed 4 or more runs (sometimes as many as 10 runs)

I would say he deserved the 15 wins, he earned them.
And he deserved the 4.90 because he had 15 bad games.

All in all he was a decent starter that most teams would like to have in the bottom half of their rotation.

This is why there's a statistic known as Neutral Wins. It takes a look at a pitcher's games and assumes that the team scores a prorated league average amount of runs over the innings that the pitcher pitched. It then looks at how many earned runs the pitcher allowed and determines if the pitcher deserved a win, a loss, or a no-decision.

Rodrigo Lopez's actual record in 2005 was 15-12. His neutral record was 11-16. That tells you exactly what kind of a pitcher he was, from a wins and losses perspective, and it tells you exactly how lucky he was.

For his career, before this season, Lopez had a record of 51-43, but he had a Neutral W-L of 47-47.

I've got another one for you guys:

The pitching equivilent of Runs Created Above Average is Runs Saved Above Average. This uses the Runs Created formula to show how much better or worse than the average major leaguer a pitcher is.

To this point in the season, guess who isthe worst pitcher in the Major Leagues?

1 Rodrigo Lopez -29
2 Josh Towers -28
3 Carlos Silva -22
4T Jeff Weaver -21
4T Brian Moehler -21
6T Joel Pineiro -20
6T Mark Mulder -20
8T Seth McClung -19
8T Jason Marquis -19
8T Jeff Suppan -19
11T Bruce Chen -17

Yes, that's correct. Rodrigo Lopez has been the worst pitcher in the Majors so far in 2006. Why? Well, he continues to be given starts despite his atrocious performance. Chen might be worse in the innings he pitches, but he's not being given as many innings.

So if we had just replaced Lopez with a league average pitcher, we'd have 29 more Runs Saved, which, if I'm not mistaken, equates to about 3 more wins on the season.

[Tx Oriole]

WildC yes you trade him at the deadline. Even if the arms of the young guys get too tired in August and Sept. He is not the one to count on.

[NewMarketSean]

I think this is a dead issue. Lopez got by in the past but we're seeing him come apart. Yeah he has some good starts in him, as we've seen a few times this season but he gets shelled a lot too. Penn and Loewen each have better stuff with higher ceilings. Why would we want to deny them any longer because we want to keep Lopez?

[jerios55]

R. Lopez and the bullpen

Someone mentioned he was upset when he was there but if I remember it was because he was pitching pretty well and was bumped out by Bedard. He was pissed in my mind because he thought he deserved to be a starter. I think he needs to be traded, but until then or if he doesn't put him in the bullpen. How can he argue it this time with the way he has pitched?

[NewMarketSean]

R. Lopez and the bullpen

Someone mentioned he was upset when he was there but if I remember it was because he was pitching pretty well and was bumped out by Bedard. He was pissed in my mind because he thought he deserved to be a starter. I think he needs to be traded, but until then or if he doesn't put him in the bullpen. How can he argue it this time with the way he has pitched?

He needs to be a SP until he is traded. If for some reason he is here after the deadline, then yes he needs to be out of the rotation so Loewen and Penn can get in.

[mweb]

I think that's a little misleading. Because the guy who gets bombed in 1/5th of his starts will win about 0% of those starts. He'll win some percent of the others, but that percentage will be less than 100. Let's say 60. In 30 starts that's 14 wins.

Pitcher #2... let's say he wins 50% of his starts where he allows four runs, but 35% of the ones where he allows five runs. That's 14 wins.

Maybe the details of that scenerio aren't exactly right, but the point is the guy who gets bombed 20 or 30% of the time will win almost none of those games, while the guy who just allows 4-5 runs a start will win half of those. I think the 4.90 is a pretty good measure.

Plus the guy that gets bombed that often will force the bullpen into early action too often.

[RShack]

Stat guys are never gonna think anything good about Rodrigo. They're just not. He wins more games than the stats say he should. If you look at stats, you conclude he's a fairly rotten pitcher. The only way you can possibly think he's any good is to watch him pitch. If you do that, then what you see is that he has a few bad games, some ok-games, a some really, really good games.

Personally, I'm not all that worried about his couple bad starts since May. You lose by 1, or you lose by 6, you still lose. I like it that, since his Ramon experiment ended, he has given the team a good chance to win a whole lot more than he hasn't. Plus, he's pitched a couple of real gems too.

I like giving Loewen and Penn some starts up here. I also like having Rodrigo around as Plan B. All the stats in the world aren't gonna change my mind about that, simply because I've seen him pitch very well lately.

I believe that some of the folks who rely on stats and who don't think much of Rodrigo also watch him pitch. I'm *not* saying that anybody who doesn't like him doesn't watch baseball. But I do believe that some of the people who are blasting him usually don't even bother to watch the games, all they do is look at box scores and think they know what happened. I don't know how somebody can think they're a fan and not watch baseball games, that doesn't make any sense to me.

[RZNJ]

Stat guys are never gonna think anything good about Rodrigo. They're just not. He wins more games than the stats say he should. If you look at stats, you conclude he's a fairly rotten pitcher. The only way you can possibly think he's any good is to watch him pitch. If you do that, then what you see is that he has a few bad games, some ok-games, a some really, really good games.

Personally, I'm not all that worried about his couple bad starts since May. You lose by 1, or you lose by 6, you still lose. I like it that, since his Ramon experiment ended, he has given the team a good chance to win a whole lot more than he hasn't. Plus, he's pitched a couple of real gems too.

I like giving Loewen and Penn some starts up here. I also like having Rodrigo around as Plan B. All the stats in the world aren't gonna change my mind about that, simply because I've seen him pitch very well lately.

I believe that some of the folks who rely on stats and who don't think much of Rodrigo also watch him pitch. I'm *not* saying that anybody who doesn't like him doesn't watch baseball. But I do believe that some of the people who are blasting him usually don't even bother to watch the games, all they do is look at box scores and think they know what happened. I don't know how somebody can think they're a fan and not watch baseball games, that doesn't make any sense to me.

Do you get to watch every O's game? If not, generally how many? Just curious.