How can Penn be this bad????

[Flosman]

earlier in the tread someone mentioned tipping pitches, I could buy something like that. There really has to be some explaination. Jon is right you can't be that good at AAA and not have talent. IT is just baffling to watch.

[Gus]

Penn couldn't throw a curveball for a strike so the Yanks were sitting on his fastball....his command of pitches was not good.....he also looked too emotional after he made mistakes. I like the guy and hope he can be a good one. The O's need him.

Also the O's need a LF that can hit the baseball.

[weams]

earlier in the tread someone mentioned tipping pitches, I could buy something like that. There really has to be some explaination. Jon is right you can't be that good at AAA and not have talent. IT is just baffling to watch.

I mentioned it and though I am not astute enough to read tips, the entire MLB scouting corps is. I especially think that with a high profile "rookie" the book is pretty extensive.

[boogidownoriole]

Its less than 4 bad innings guys. Dont panic just yet.
He faces the Tigers next...

[DrungoHazewood]

What is absurd ? The notion that O's fans overvalue him ? Of course Oioles fans overvalue him.

A 2.26 ERA in AAA is no guarantee of anything.

There have been tons of players who have had alot of minor league success but never repeated it in the big leagues. Hopefully, he is not one of those.

You keep repeating this over and over like minor league performance is basically meaningless, and it's a complete crapshoot as to who succeed and who fails.

Fact: Once you adjust for level of difficulty and park effects, minor league performances predict future major league performances just as well as past major league performances.

[Skywalker76]

Its less than 4 bad innings guys. Dont panic just yet.
He faces the Tigers next...

Nobody is panicing. Me, I'm giving Penn all the time he needs, which is until the end of 2007. But to me Loewen, Cabrera and Penn are just too many question marks in the 2007 rotation and these starts by Penn should tell the FO that pitching should still be the priority in the offseason.

[bigbird]

Again, for the record. I'm one of the few who would have traded him to the Rox for Shealy. Time will tell how that works out.

[66-70-83-??]

You keep repeating this over and over like minor league performance is basically meaningless, and it's a complete crapshoot as to who succeed and who fails.

Fact: Once you adjust for level of difficulty and park effects, minor league performances predict future major league performances just as well as past major league performances.

I have never said it is a complete crapshoot. Nor have I said that minor league stats are meaningless.

Just because I don't believe that everything in baseball can be quantified in statistical analysis doesn't mean that I think stats don't have value.

So, are you disagreeing with my statement that a 2.25 era at AAA doesn't guarantee success at the mlb level ?

So, what will Penn's stats be next year ?

[Adam]

Nobody is panicing. Me, I'm giving Penn all the time he needs, which is until the end of 2007. But to me Loewen, Cabrera and Penn are just too many question marks in the 2007 rotation and these starts by Penn should tell the FO that pitching should still be the priority in the offseason.

Definitely. Let's take an objective look at our starting rotation. Bedard has been quite good, at times looking like one of the very best in the game. At the very least, he's a good #2 starter. Benson had a hot start, but has come back to earth and is pretty much league average, as many predicted. Cabrera can either blow hitters away or just plain blow at times. Loewen has been pretty impressive for a young kind out of AA, but he shouldn't be counted on to be a top of the rotation guy just yet. Penn has been absolutely hammered so far this season, but I still hold out hope. The Orioles could definitely use another proven starter if they want to compete next season. If nothing else, it gives some of the young guys more time to work on some things.

[BigSkip]

He's not that bad. It's just he's so overhyped by the people on this board that any kind of struggles are destined to be viewed as complete failures.

That's all.

[TyCobb]

I like Penn fastball. I think he can be a good pitcher. I am going to give him the rest of the year and see how he pitches. I won't trade him yet though unless for a Dunn.

[Mr Baseball]

Used to be a pitcher would be brought up slowly to the bigs. They would spend a season or two in the pen. Now we toss them in as a starter against the highest scoring team in baseball.

He hasn't lasted long enough in either start to have a chance to show us what he can do.

[OsEatAlEast]

Well Buck Martinez touched on something that I have been thinking for a couple of weeks now. As he said that the talent level between AAA and the Majors has probably never had this much of a gap. Really we have only had one guy who came up from AAA this year that has done squat. The level of competition at AAA might be the problem.

[JourneyFan]

There are plenty of pitchers who have poor performances in very limited innings at age 20/21 and then go on to successful careers. See Mike Hampton, Blue Moon Odom, Kevin Appier, Bruce Hurst, Arthur Rhodes, Duane Ward, Goose Gossage, Reggie Cleveland, and Cal McLish for a few examples.

Well, in recent years the Orioles haven't fared too well in the highly touted pitching prospects panning out; I can see why some might be skeptical.

[rlc]

You keep repeating this over and over like minor league performance is basically meaningless, and it's a complete crapshoot as to who succeed and who fails.

Fact: Once you adjust for level of difficulty and park effects, minor league performances predict future major league performances just as well as past major league performances.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Minor league performance alone is not enough to predict future major league performance. Which of these two prospects (coming up in the same system, a few years apart) will have the better major league career?

Age Lev   IP HR/9  BB/9  K/9    Age Lev  IP HR/9  BB/9   K/9
                                 17  -R  33   ?   2.45  11.73
                                      R  24   ?   1.88  12.75
 18   R   52  .69  3.27  6.54    18   A  35   ?   3.37  10.38    
 19   A   43  .83  3.95  8.52    19   A 171  .53  1.90  11.44  
     +A   73  .86  2.45  7.49    
     AA   20  .00  3.98  8.85
 20  AA  110  .90  3.02  9.79    20  +A 118  .38  1.68   9.23
 21 AAA   88  .51  2.77  8.73    21  AA 132  .68  1.43   8.86
                                    AAA  58  .78  2.95   9.47