Ken Rosenthal's take on where Soriono will go?!?!

[caljr]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb

The video is located on the right side of the page about half way down. It is called Baseball Report: Hot Stove

He starts to talk about it at about the 1:45 mark.

[paulcoates]

Says that he will go to highest bidder and that he talked to a GM and he said he thought he would land in Baltimore for 6/94mill

[RZNJ]

Says that he will go to highest bidder and that he talked to a GM and he said he thought he would land in Baltimore for 6/94mill

We all know how reliable these types of reports are. A GM from another team is guessing where Soriano winds up. It's no better than Steve Phillips speculating on these guys and we know his track record. For that matter, we know all of these writer's track records on guessing where guys wind up. Abysmal! The Soriano signing figures to be dragged out for some time, I would guess.

[crstrobel]

Says that he will go to highest bidder and that he talked to a GM and he said he thought he would land in Baltimore for 6/94mill

I will believe it when I see him at the warehouse putting on a hat and jersey. It is waaaaay to early to get our hopes up, especially with the track record of this front office.

[caljr]

Can someone please give me some examples of players who have seen a significant decline in production at the age of 33 for reasons not related to injury. I am having trouble thinking of any.

[Sports Guy]

Can someone please give me some examples of players who have seen a significant decline in production at the age of 33 for reasons not related to injury. I am having trouble thinking of any.

The problem is as as player gets older, the possibility of injuries go way up. So, even though Soriano has been pretty durable now, it doesn't mean that will continue.

[ScottieBaseball]

The problem is as as player gets older, the possibility of injuries go way up. So, even though Soriano has been pretty durable now, it doesn't mean that will continue.

Wouldn't you agree, though, that this overall, broad mentality when it comes to prospective free agents and trades is what has prevented us from making a significant upgrade (aside from Tejada) over the last few years?

Soriano presents a significant upgrade at a position of need. He is one of the game's superstars. I could see if at the end of a 6-year contract he was going to be 38 or 39, but he'll be 36 years old at the end of that deal.

I understand and agree that free agents should be analyzed in just such a fashion and your concern is valid, but I question the likelihood of that scenario panning out.

If the choices are between overpaying for Soriano and platooning 2 guys, I say break out the checkbook. No one is going to come back to Oriole Park to watch Dellucci and Catallanotto, but people will come back to watch one of the most fierce hitters in baseball.

On the subject of platooning...I don't think it's an ideal situation to have 2 MLB'ers splitting time at a position going into spring training. Every guy wants a full-time job and I can't envision a situation where 2 guys like Dellucci and Cat would A) be agreeable to a scenario in which they're not even coming in to compete for the full-time job, and B) agree to all of that here in Baltimore. Maybe if it was for a legitimate contender, yes. It might be worth a slightly-more-than part-time role to get a ring, but not here.

I think platoons just sort of evolve out of necessity and exhausting other options. Hopefully it doesn't come down to that in 2007 for the O's.

[Why Not?]

Can someone please give me some examples of players who have seen a significant decline in production at the age of 33 for reasons not related to injury. I am having trouble thinking of any.

It's pretty common, expected really.

Javy Lopez, Kevin Millar and maybe Melvin Mora are some examples right in our backyard.

[clapdiddy]

Sorry...I'm a little out of the loop, but when does the free agent signing period begin?

And....a bigger question....

What if the Orioles would somehow pull this deal off? What if they decide that they want Soriano and close the deal? How would you feel about it?

I'm not a big fan of Soriano and I do think his skills may erode a bit as he gets older. He does seem to keep himself in pretty good shape and he very well could be one of those guys who doesn't have the big drop off in production. He has excellent bat speed and could put up some monster power numbers here.

If he could keep his OBP in the .330 - .350 range year in and year out, I'd feel a lot more comfortable with spending the big money on him. He does seem to have the respect of his teammates. I know the Yankees players liked him and I haven't ever heard a teammate say anything negative about him. TonyS may find a contradiction to this somewhere...???

He would fill a huge, gaping hole on this team immediately, and would certainly energize the fan base. It would probably make the O's a little more attractive to other players in the league as well. I could see a guy like Alou and/or Piazza being interested in coming here to DH if we pull off a big move like this.

I still think the best move of this offseason would be to trade off any player who could bring us young talent. I just don't think we will be in the running for a big player...or any semi-talented player...without massively overpaying.

Overall, I guess I'd be on the fence with it and I'd have to see what additional moves they make. If they decide that they want to go for it, then I sure hope they make a concerted effort to do it. If we sign Soriano and get little else done, then I'd think it would be a questionable direction to take.

[Sports Guy]

Ok, let's talk about some things here.....

I posted this a while ago about our payroll for next year:



1st-???
2nd- BRob
SS- Tejada
3rd- Mora
LF-???
CF- CPat
RF-Markakis
DH- Gibbons
C- Hernandez

Bedard
Benson
DCab
Loewen


Ray
Penn
Britton
Hoey

Looks like that is the payroll as of right now. Maybe give or take a million or a few hundred thousand but it will be right around 57 million for those 15 players.

Ok, so let's go with the assumption, for arguments sake, that the above is the what we are looking at right now, so that leaves 10 players.

Bigbird has mentioned in the past that his contact has told him that a 90 million dollar payroll is possible for this year, if we can sign the right guys.

Let's assume(this is a big assumption but it applies to the thread) that we give Soriano this 6/94 contract. Let's also assume the contract is backloaded and Soriano makes 13 million for 2007.

So, that brings the payroll to 70 million for 16 players.

So, with the 9 players left, we need the following:

1) 3 more relievers...Assuming we go with a 12 man staff
2) back up catcher
3) starting pitcher
4) first baseman
5) 3 other bench players

That would leave us with a 25 man team.

So, can we get those things for 20 million?

Sign Cruz Jr...1 million or so.
Back up catcher....2-3 million.
3 relievers....say we spend 6 million on those guys
2 other bench players....4 million there

So, that leaves 13-14 million spent, bringing us to a 84 million dollar payroll or so.

So, that leaves 6 million for a starter and first baseman....If we are smart and obtain a young first baseman, we wouldn't have to pay much.

Not going to sign much of a starter for 5 million, so we could just go with a Penn/Rlo competition in ST, with the loser going to the pen, which would be fine with me.

So, if we signed Soriano to a big contract, we could be smart and get a very good, young first baseman, some good depth throughout the team and be a much stronger team.

We can open things up a little more if the moved Gibbons and/or Benson.

[davearm]

Ok, let's talk about some things here.....

I posted this a while ago about our payroll for next year:



1st-???
2nd- BRob
SS- Tejada
3rd- Mora
LF-???
CF- CPat
RF-Markakis
DH- Gibbons
C- Hernandez

Bedard
Benson
DCab
Loewen


Ray
Penn
Britton
Hoey

Looks like that is the payroll as of right now. Maybe give or take a million or a few hundred thousand but it will be right around 57 million for those 15 players.

Ok, so let's go with the assumption, for arguments sake, that the above is the what we are looking at right now, so that leaves 10 players.

Bigbird has mentioned in the past that his contact has told him that a 90 million dollar payroll is possible for this year, if we can sign the right guys.

Let's assume(this is a big assumption but it applies to the thread) that we give Soriano this 6/94 contract. Let's also assume the contract is backloaded and Soriano makes 13 million for 2007.

So, that brings the payroll to 70 million for 16 players.

So, with the 9 players left, we need the following:

1) 3 more relievers...Assuming we go with a 12 man staff
2) back up catcher
3) starting pitcher
4) first baseman
5) 3 other bench players

That would leave us with a 25 man team.

So, can we get those things for 20 million?

Sign Cruz Jr...1 million or so.
Back up catcher....2-3 million.
3 relievers....say we spend 6 million on those guys
2 other bench players....4 million there

So, that leaves 13-14 million spent, bringing us to a 84 million dollar payroll or so.

So, that leaves 6 million for a starter and first baseman....If we are smart and obtain a young first baseman, we wouldn't have to pay much.

Not going to sign much of a starter for 5 million, so we could just go with a Penn/Rlo competition in ST, with the loser going to the pen, which would be fine with me.

So, if we signed Soriano to a big contract, we could be smart and get a very good, young first baseman, some good depth throughout the team and be a much stronger team.

We can open things up a little more if the moved Gibbons and/or Benson.

You're going to be hurting if you've got $6M to spend on a starting pitcher and an everyday 1B. For that $$$, say hello to Millar + Chen.

Getting a young hotshot 1B like Huber or whatever instead is either going to open a hole someplace else (almost certainly on the pitching staff), or cost you a prospect or two that's going to hurt (Erbe, Reimold caliber).

[JTrea81]

It's interesting that he said that an AL GM said Baltimore for 6/94 when asked where he'd end up and for how much. I agree though the highest bidder will get him obviously. GMat liked having him as a teammate, called him "a big time player."

[Frobby]

I would pull the trigger and do it.

[Sports Guy]

The one thing about another current GM stating this is probably because he has discussed stuff, off the record, with our guys. Very possible that is why this GM believes we will get him.

[Hank Scorpio]

For 6 years?

Uh....