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Thread: So who wants Baldelli?
03-22-2007 02:45 AM #1
So who wants Baldelli?
Looks like the Rhode Island stallion is injured again...
Tampa Bay No. 3 hitter Rocco Baldelli left midgame with potentially troubling tightness in his right hamstring. Baldelli, sidelined into June last season with hamstring problems that popped up around the same time of spring, said he won't know the seriousness of this situation until he gets out of bed today.
-- St. Petersburg Times
I suggest we trade Chris Ray and Garrett Olson for a hampster... it may stay healthy longer
03-22-2007 07:18 AM #2
I would take him if he could stay healthy.
03-22-2007 07:38 AM #3
125 games of Baldelli would be better than 162 of Payton.
03-22-2007 07:56 AM #4Plus Member Since 09/03 Hall of Fame
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03-22-2007 08:17 AM #5
I think a better point of conversation in that article is
A woman accused of stalking Brewers' announcer Bob Uecker for nearly a decade
03-22-2007 09:15 AM #6
Stick him in LF and he will stay healthier. His hamstring issue has to be conditioning related. Why the DRays don't give him an offseason workout to avoid this is beyond me. Maddon seems to think he can go in a couple days but Baldelli is more pessimistic.
I'd still rather have him than Payton in LF and would still deal Ray and someone else for him. With all these injury concerns, his price keeps dropping, so it may not even take Penn included in the deal to get him.
03-22-2007 09:42 AM #7
Actually, I'm not joking entirely. I'm genuinely curious what the stats say about Baldelli spending 40 games hurt vs. Payton at full-strength all season. I wouldn't even know where to begin to compare statistics, Jon, so I'm interested to know if you were being facetious or for real.
It's worth pointing out, though, that Baldelli doesn't bring NEARLY the amount of veteran leadership to this clubhouse as Jay Payton.
03-22-2007 09:46 AM #8
03-22-2007 10:00 AM #9
03-22-2007 10:08 AM #10
This almost certainly holds true for Baldelli (likely OPS in the mid .800s) and Payton (in the low-mid .700s).
03-22-2007 10:18 AM #11
03-22-2007 10:10 AM #12
First of all, you see what Baldelli's normal production is and assume you get that for 125 games.
Then, you figure out who starts the other 37 games in LF and go from there. So, it will depend upon who starts out there(in this case, it would be Payton himself). You then, take those 2 figures and compare them against Payton alone.
Using WARP3, Baldelli was worth .5 win more than payton last year..However, WARP3 is a counting stat..In other words, his injuries hurt his WARP3 number. He accumulated a WARP3 figure of 4.4 in only 88 games and 364 ab's. Payton accumulated a WARP3 number of 3.9 in 557 abs and 142 games.
So, Baldelli is far ahead of Payton in terms of production...Probably anywhere from 3-5 wins better(if they both played a full compliment of games) and that is before you account for Baldelli getting better.
So, Baldelli for 125 games + Payton for 37 games is probably worth anywhere from 4-8 wins more than Payton for 162 games....Of coruse these numbers can vary slightly if you platoon and stuff like that but you get the idea.
03-22-2007 10:14 AM #13
Damn shame this kid keeps getting hurt. I hope it's not serious.
I know we're looking over our shoulder at Tampa Bay, wondering if they'll ever overtake us in the standings but I'm a baseball fan too. Baldelli is a good young talent and the game needs more of guys like him.
03-22-2007 10:24 AM #14
03-22-2007 11:22 AM #15Board National League Analyst
- Join Date
- Dec 2005
Here's my back-of-the-envelope math, using career stats:
Baldelli has generated 17.7 WARP3 in 1636 career TPA
(17.7 / 1636) x 125 x 4.5 = 6.086 WARP3 in a 125 game season
Payton has generated 30.3 WARP3 in 3620 career TPA
(30.3 / 3620) x 162 x 4.5 = 6.102 WARP3 in a 162 game season
The 37 games that Baldelli misses should be allocated to a replacement-level player that, by definition, provides zero WARP.
So it's basically a dead heat! With either option you're getting a hair over 6 wins (assuming 4.5 PA per game).