The Dodgers and Bedard--part 100

[Sports Guy]

HR are definately in the control of the pitcher IMO. It is rare to see a HR that isn't hit hard.

Alot of people, much smarter(on this subject) than you, me, NovaO or whoever would tell you that you are dead wrong here.

[TyCobb]

Alot of people, much smarter(on this subject) than you, me, NovaO or whoever would tell you that you are dead wrong here.

Now that I have to read up on because I would think Hr's are giving up based on the Pitcher and the ball park.

[NoVaO]

HR are definately in the control of the pitcher IMO. It is rare to see a HR that isn't hit hard.

HRs are more a factor of how many fly balls you give up.

I do think some pitchers tend to give up a higher % of HRs than others (Bruce Chen, Jorge Julio, etc.), but Bedard is not one of them. His HR/FB% will fall, and if other stuff remains the same, his ERA will fall with it.

[Frobby]

Just as I figured, you will never tackle my question headon.

Because it's abundantly clear that I'm right, and that xFIP is seriously flawed.

To me, all xFIP does is give some statistical evidence that Bedard has been unlucky. It doesn't "prove" anything.

But why have we gotten so far afield? Bedard is a very good pitcher. You don't dispute that. The issue is, is it better to keep him as a core building block of this team or trade him as part of a rebuilding plan. That question doesn't change much regardless of whether you think he's the 10th best pitcher in MLB or the 25th best.

As for me, I'm keeping him unless some team just blows us away with an offer. A rebuilding plan has to start with some kind of core, and a couple of good starting pitchers who are under 30 and not yet eligible for free agency is a pretty good starting point.

[JTrea81]

You felt this way all offseason too though...Your argument holds no water here.
But if teams agree with you and think he is a "just a #2", no way he nets the package you think he does and since that is what you believe he is, suggesting that he can get that package is wrong.

His value was lower during the offseason too because of the question of his hamstrings, but I'll admit Ray and Penn probably weren't enough for the D-Rays to pull the trigger then. Now they should jump at that offer...

Like I said if a #2 starter is the best there is on the market and all the teams want him, they will try to trump each other's offer. The NL West is the best place for Bedard. Imagine if LA and the DBacks were competing for his services?

[nadecir]

The heck it doesn't! That's *precisely* what it intends to do.

It's right there in the name for crying out loud.

Fielding Independent Pitching.

There are only four stats that go a pitcher's FIP: home runs, walks, hit batters, and strikeouts. A team's defense has almost no control over these pitching stats, agreed? The pitcher is the overwhelming determining factor in these stats.

FIP does not base its value on whether one team has a better defense than another team.

[NoVaO]

It's been explained how to calculate xFIP, and what variables go into it.

Not that I needed that information.

Nobody's yet explained how the O's are gold glovers some days, and bumbling idiots other days.

Its more about not being able to control WHERE the ball is hit, not if the defense can get to the ball.

[TGO]

You guys are all forgetting the one thing that I would be willing to bet is causing the most disconnect between Bedard's xFIP and his ERA: inherited runners.

What's the common theme of the last few seasons of Orioles baseball? Crappy bullpen.

[nadecir]

You guys are all forgetting the one thing that I would be willing to bet is causing the most disconnect between Bedard's xFIP and his ERA: inherited runners.

I don't know about inherited runners scoring in Bedard's starts, but any pitcher with a high run home run rate is bound to have a much lower xFIP that their actual ERA. I think Bedard fits in this category.

[TGO]

Its more about not being able to control WHERE the ball is hit, not if the defense can get to the ball.

There you go. Guys like Trachsel and Guthrie, when they're on, are going to get lots of weak, pulled grounders and can of corn flyballs. Cabrera and Bedard are strike out guys. When someone does put the bat on the ball against them, it's really anyone's guess where the ball is going to go, because they probably missed their spot or the hitter guessed right on a pitch.

[davearm]

LOL

Dave, can you answer my question?

Why do the same 8 guys score more runs for some pitcher than another...I mean, it is the same, right?

I can't answer your question..In fact, NO ONE can. It is just what happens. Just as some pitchers get different run support than others.

It's not the same. Not even close

Run support suffers from serious sample size issues. Defense behind a pitcher does not.

Over a large enough sample size, all the starters would get the same run support, just as over a large enough sample size, all the starters would get the same defensive support.

Over the course of a season, a guy's run support number is the average of around 30 values (starts). Obviously that's not enough datapoints to draw any logical conclusions.

Meanwhile over the course of the same season, a given pitcher will allow hundreds of ball in play. That's plenty large enough to neutralize sample size issues on the defense side.

[Sports Guy]

It's not the same. Not even close

Run support suffers from serious sample size issues. Defense behind a pitcher does not.

Over a large enough sample size, all the starters would get the same run support, just as over a large enough sample size, all the starters would get the same defensive support.

Over the course of a season, a guy's run support number is the average of around 30 values (starts). Obviously that's not enough datapoints to draw any logical conclusions.

Meanwhile over the course of the same season, a given pitcher will allow hundreds of ball in play. That's plenty large enough to neutralize sample size issues on the defense side.

But you are assuming the defense is the same every night and clearly its not.

And btw, i think your argument is very weak here but whatever.

I imagine if someone out there has a theory to explain this to you, you would just turn around and discount it anyway, so what's the point?

[isestrex]

Still waiting for the list of #1 starters in the AL btw(obviously Santana is one..who else if Bedard isn't).

Not that I'm siding with Dave on his entire platform, but speaking as someone who believes Bedard would make a better #2 than an Ace, here are the pitchers I think would/should get the #1 spot in the rotation if ever we obtained them thus forcing Bedard to the #2...

AL
Johan Santana
C.C. Sabathia
Roy Halladay
John Lackey
Dan Haren

NL
John Smoltz
Ben Sheetz
Chris Carpenter
Roy Oswalt
Aaron Harang
Brad Penny
Greg Maddox
Jake Peavy
Brandon Webb


This list is shrinking however. Last year I would have put a whole lot more pitchers on this list as those I would consider better than and more deserving of the #1 spot than Bedard. I think he is rounding into a fine Ace and could quite possibly be one for years to come.

But if would could ever land one of these names making it possible to bump Bedard to #2....


It's similar to '97 when Mussina served as our #2. He was our ace for much of the 90's, but when we got Jimmy Key we were able to move Mussina to the #2 spot.

[Sports Guy]

Not that I'm siding with Dave on his entire platform, but speaking as someone who believes Bedard would make a better #2 than an Ace, here are the pitchers I think would/should get the #1 spot in the rotation if ever we obtained them thus forcing Bedard to the #2...

AL
Johan Santana
C.C. Sabathia
Roy Halladay
John Lackey
Dan Haren

NL
John Smoltz
Ben Sheetz
Chris Carpenter
Roy Oswalt
Aaron Harang
Brad Penny
Greg Maddox
Jake Peavy
Brandon Webb


This list is shrinking however. Last year I would have put a whole lot more pitchers on this list as those I would consider better than and more deserving of the #1 spot than Bedard. I think he is rounding into a fine Ace and could quite possibly be one for years to come.

But if would could ever land one of these names making it possible to bump Bedard to #2....


It's similar to '97 when Mussina served as our #2. He was our ace for much of the 90's, but when we got Jimmy Key we were able to move Mussina to the #2 spot.

I don't think Haren is above Bedard and Halladay, as of right now, isn't either.

However, Halladay has certainly been more consistent and reliable than Bedard has, so i can see why you put him in that category. However, GOING FORWARD, i do not think this will be the case.

I don't have much issue with the other 3 being put ahead of Bedard or at least, on the same level as him.

As for the NL guys, there are alot of good ones you mentioned there however, not all of them are ahead of Erik and some of them pitch in great pitchers parks and, of course, they are in the inferior league right now, so you have to take that into consideration.

How good would those guys be in the AL, with generally smaller parks and more offense?

[weemnj]

By the way, for those proposing a wait till next year trading deadline---well next year is Johan's walk year and the Twins will probably have him on the market next July because of their affordability issues. This would no doubt diminish Bedard's trade value.