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07-08-2007 05:23 PM #1
Age Matters (when evaluating Rowell, Snyder, etc)
A lot has been made of the fact that both Rowell and Snyder have been performing near league average, rather than dominating the SAL like many expected (at least for Rowell). Many have (correctly) countered by saying they are young for the league, and must be evaluated differently. I decided to do a little research into average ages and stats for each league we have a team in, so we can have a solid point of reference for discussions like the above. The below are 2007 data (as of this weekend), obtained from minorleaguebaseball.com and mlb.com. Enjoy, and discuss if you like:
GCL Averages (Rookie)
Overall Average Age: 20.0
Average Hitting Stats: .248-.332-.358 (.690 OPS), 4.3 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.94 ERA, 0.52 HR/9, 3.70 BB/9, 8.21 K/9
Appalachian League Averages (Rookie)
Overall Average Age: 20.6
Average Hitting Stats: .276-.348-.406 (.754 OPS), 4.4 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.84 ERA, 0.63 HR/9, 3.80 BB/9, 8.15 K/9
New York-Penn League Averages (A-Short Season)
Overall Average Age: 21.7
Average Hitting Stats: .250-.332-.358 (.690 OPS), 4.5 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.95 ERA, 0.45 HR/9, 3.68 BB/9, 7.66 K/9
South Atlantic League Averages (A)
Overall Average Age: 22.0
Average Hitting Stats: .263-.335-.398 (.733 OPS), 4.6 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.34 ERA, 0.76 HR/9, 3.42 BB/9, 7.54 K/9
Carolina League Averages (A-Advanced)
Overall Average Age: 23.2
Average Hitting Stats: .261-.340-.393 (.733 OPS), 5.1 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.18 ERA, 0.70 HR/9, 3.74 BB/9, 6.73 K/9
Eastern League Averages (AA)
Overall Average Age: 25.0
Average Hitting Stats: .259-.332-.389 (.721 OPS), 5.0 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.05 ERA, 0.74 HR/9, 3.51 BB/9, 6.95 K/9
International League Averages (AAA)
Overall Average Age: 27.2
Average Hitting Stats: .260-.332-.393 (.725 OPS), 4.9 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.96 ERA, 0.78 HR/9, 3.44 BB/9, 6.97 K/9
Major League Baseball Averages
Average Hitting Stats: .264-.332-.415 (.747 OPS), 5.3 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.35 ERA, 0.99 HR/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.55 K/9
07-08-2007 09:39 PM #2
This should be a sticky.
07-08-2007 10:00 PM #3Bowie
- Join Date
- Sep 2003
- Phoenix, MD
All of that being said, does this mean guys like Snyder and Rowell will spend the first half of next year at Delmarva again? Although they are both performing above league average, I imagine there would be psychological issues for guys who spent their entire careers dominating leagues only to go on to hit slightly above league average. If both came back to Delmarva next year and dominated, then you move them up.
07-08-2007 10:36 PM #4
Hey, I like your thinking and I support what you said. I'll try to drive the point home to management, but I would bet they will move both up if they keep hitting .275 or above.
07-08-2007 11:56 PM #5
Just for fun, my list of who I would promote right now based on their age and stats:
- Majewski, Jimenez, and Hale from Bowie to Norfolk
- Rivas (when healthy), Finan, and Lonsberry from Frederick to Bowie
- Tripp (if he holds up another week or 2), Moore, and Schmidt from Delmarva to Frederick
- Clark and Jevne from Aberdeen to Delmarva
- Tucker, Binick, Flagello, Gleason, and Williamson from Bluefield to Aberdeen or Delmarva
- Kolodny, Lester, McCurry, Odom from GCL O's to Bluefield
07-09-2007 08:13 AM #6
There's one caveat to this post - the players that drive the median age of a league up are typically non-prospects. The median age of the Appy League might be almost 21, but if you're harboring hopes of being a major leaguer you'd better be out of there long before 21.
Manny Ramirez was 19 in the Appy League. Nick Markakis never played for Bluefield. Neither did Erik Bedard, or many other college-drafted Oriole prospects.
The median age of the Eastern League is 25. If you're in AA at 25 you're, by definition, not a prospect. If you're in AA at 25 you have basically a 0% chance of becoming a major league star. Ok... maybe not 0%, but like 1% or 2%.
What this list tells you is that Rowell, Snyder, etc have less experience than many of their peers. But if they're going to be good Baltimore Orioles their more impressive talents should easily make up for that.
07-09-2007 10:36 AM #7
Based on DH's post I think that if we knew the Median, not the Average age of each level you would have a better idea of the "average" age of each league really is... The few older propects at each level unfairly skew the average higher than it should be.
07-09-2007 12:31 PM #8Plus Member Since 08/06
- Join Date
- Sep 2003
07-09-2007 02:47 PM #9
Some other examples of guys, just from our organization (at one point or another), who performed only OK at around the average age levels of the league, but still have become solid ML players:
- Melvin Mora (.712 OPS, second year at AA, age 24)
- Willie Harris (.807 OPS, A, age 22)
- Jose Mesa (3.42 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, AA, age 24)
- Jamie Walker (4.18 ERA, 0.7 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, A, age 23)
- Brian Burres (4.20 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, AA, age 24)
- Jeremy Guthrie (4.21 ERA, 1.1 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, second year in AA, age 25)
07-10-2007 01:52 PM #10Plus Member Since 01/08 Major Leagues
- Join Date
- Jul 2005
Part of my personal evaluation of players is based on their age compared to their level of play, using the following benchmarks as an acceptable age:
If a player is younger than the age above they get additional points, if they are older they get docked points, and if they are right on the age they simply have no changes either way.
07-10-2007 03:49 PM #11
07-10-2007 03:54 PM #12
The thing I should have said was that most of my point concerned position players. Pitchers are a whole different breed. While taken as a group pitchers will peak at 27 like anyone else, their individual aging patterns often are wildly, irrationally different. There are Hall of Famers who were good from 18-26, others that were good from 30-44, and others who were good from 21-25 and again from 34-41 but awful in between. There are many pitchers who crafted successful careers after being Jeremy Guthrie at 26. There are many pitchers who were great as teenagers and done by 25.
But position players... yes, sometimes you'll get a guy who's pretty good for a while after being stuck in the Eastern League on his 25th birthday. But they're a pretty rare breed. Of all the players who accumulated 300+ win shares as a position player, Sam Rice is the only one who wasn't a major league regular at 25.
07-11-2007 04:14 AM #13Plus Member Since 01/08 Major Leagues
- Join Date
- Jul 2005
By acceptable age, I mean the player could still be some sort of prospect if he was at a particular level. Most of our top prospects are ahead of the curve, some significantly. It is simply a part of the overall picture when evaluting an individual player. Hernandez, Spoone and Bergeson are all doing fine for their age, but if any are to become top level prospects they would likely need to play two levels next season and be ready for Baltimore in 2009 at age 23.
Last edited by blazer; 07-11-2007 at 01:13 PM. Reason: Mistype
07-11-2007 08:44 AM #14
07-11-2007 10:24 AM #15