Guthrie Doubters stand up

[Hallas]

Another observation I've noticed lately is that batters aren't swinging early on him anymore. They are working counts better against him, which has raised his walk numbers and pitch counts.

Even if the A's suck as hitters, they still preach taking pitches and trying to work the count for walks. I wouldn't use a game against the A's as an example of teams trying to work the count better against him.

[tywright]

Even if the A's suck as hitters, they still preach taking pitches and trying to work the count for walks. I wouldn't use a game against the A's as an example of teams trying to work the count better against him.

I was talking about the 3 games prior to yesterday. I didn't see yesterday's game

[BeerIsFood]

Since I do not know nearly enough about stats to be able to analyze them correctly one way or another, I can only go on what I have seen. I haven't seen enough, therefore I am refraining from making judgement one way or another until the end of the year, after he faces the AL East over and over again.

Anyway if anyone knows any good books, websites, ect to explain baseball stats in depth and the analysis of them, please PM them to me, thanks. Beer.

[Rex Thunder]

Well the guys with the best stuff in baseball still usually have their BABIP in the 280-300.

He has been lucky...You can't deny that.

Now, the question is, how lucky has he been and what would we be looking at if his stats were more "normal"?

That is the question.

There is too much speaking hypothetically, and "what if" here. How can you say, "You can't deny that (he's been lucky.)"

Of course I can! I watch every night. I feel like I know when I am seeing a "lucky" pitcher- and I don't see that with Guthrie. Even if he goes on to have a bad season next year, which I doubt- you STILL can not call THIS year lucky. This year, right here, right now, Guthrie is just THAT GOOD! How can you deny that?

By the numbers of one stat??? Come on... You're ignoring just about all the rest of his numbers (namely ERA, WHIP, OPP BA), and his results- to focus on ONE stat that backs your point...

[Sports Guy]

There is too much speaking hypothetically, and "what if" here. How can you say, "You can't deny that (he's been lucky.)"

Of course I can! I watch every night. I feel like I know when I am seeing a "lucky" pitcher- and I don't see that with Guthrie. Even if he goes on to have a bad season next year, which I doubt- you STILL can not call THIS year lucky. This year, right here, right now, Guthrie is just THAT GOOD! How can you deny that?

By the numbers of one stat??? Come on... You're ignoring just about all the rest of his numbers (namely ERA, WHIP, OPP BA), and his results- to focus on ONE stat that backs your point...

You mean the defensive dependant stats? Yea, they all go along with how lucky his BABIP is.

[Rex Thunder]

You mean the defensive dependant stats? Yea, they all go along with how lucky his BABIP is.

To me it's just like arguiing over the existence of God. There are countless things people who don't believe can point to make their case, but they seem to turn a blind eye to what's right in front of them. I see what you're saying- and that you need to see it for another year before you lose your doubts... but the point is- this year, he is among the league's best. Rookie or no rookie, lucky or not. Every argument has two sides, and valid points usually stand on both- so it's a matter of which stance you take.

I wonder if you could find any otger pitchers in the league with a similar BABIP, who don't have the other numbers to go with it. If so, are those pitchers lucky too? They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, and I agree with another post that said maybe it's the use of the word "luck" that is ruffling feathers, but the fact is, Guthrie has been dominating for most of this season as a starter, and whatever his defensive stats are- he was still throwing the ball.

I think as someone said, he makes his own luck with his agressive and immediate pitching style. Teh defense stays on hsi toes, and they know he'll throw strikes... so they're ready. In the Boston debacle, other than the Hernandez pop up blunder, which I still quiver at the thought of- the defense fell apart once he left the game. Could that be because the defense is aware of Baez and Ray's inconsistency? Who knows...

As I already said though, as much credit as he gives the defense- I have just as often see them fail him- and him then bail them out. I think this is another reason for their extra effort (well, minus Jay Gibbons in left field a week or so ago) in playing D behind him.

[Mackus]

To me it's just like arguiing over the existence of God. There are countless things people who don't believe can point to make their case, but they seem to turn a blind eye to what's right in front of them. I see what you're saying- and that you need to see it for another year before you lose your doubts... but the point is- this year, he is among the league's best. Rookie or no rookie, lucky or not. Every argument has two sides, and valid points usually stand on both- so it's a matter of which stance you take.

I wonder if you could find any otger pitchers in the league with a similar BABIP, who don't have the other numbers to go with it. If so, are those pitchers lucky too? They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, and I agree with another post that said maybe it's the use of the word "luck" that is ruffling feathers, but the fact is, Guthrie has been dominating for most of this season as a starter, and whatever his defensive stats are- he was still throwing the ball.

I think as someone said, he makes his own luck with his agressive and immediate pitching style. Teh defense stays on hsi toes, and they know he'll throw strikes... so they're ready. In the Boston debacle, other than the Hernandez pop up blunder, which I still quiver at the thought of- the defense fell apart once he left the game. Could that be because the defense is aware of Baez and Ray's inconsistency? Who knows...

As I already said though, as much credit as he gives the defense- I have just as often see them fail him- and him then bail them out. I think this is another reason for their extra effort (well, minus Jay Gibbons in left field a week or so ago) in playing D behind him.

I think its kind of naive to think that the defenders play better behind Guthrie than they do for other pitchers. Guthrie has both been incredibly good this season and gotten a bit lucky on top of that. It doesn't have to be an either or situation.

[Rex Thunder]

I think its kind of naive to think that the defenders play better behind Guthrie than they do for other pitchers. Guthrie has both been incredibly good this season and gotten a bit lucky on top of that. It doesn't have to be an either or situation.

I never said the defenders play better behind him intially. I just started responding to others who brought that up in their responses. I agree that it shouldn't be an either or deal. He has pitched out of just as many tough spots due to defensive errors than anyone, and done significantly better in those adverse situations.

[Frobby]

I think its kind of naive to think that the defenders play better behind Guthrie than they do for other pitchers. Guthrie has both been incredibly good this season and gotten a bit lucky on top of that. It doesn't have to be an either or situation.

I endorse this position. However, I do think it's possible that (1) defenders might play a bit better behind pitchers who work fast and throw strikes, and (2) regardless of that, two pitchers on the same team can get significantly different levels of defensive support, just as they can get different levels of offensive support.

Regardless of those factors, Guthrie has been outstanding, no two ways about it.

[NoVaO]

Well, Guthrie's is 228 as a starter according to Baseball Reference.

Whatever you want to look at, he is still well below league average and that is the bottom line.

That is a lucky rate...Not sure how you or anyone else can deny that.

It really doesn't matter what is BABIP as as starter is. Its a batted ball one way or another and the ball doesn't know if Guthrie is starting or relieving. BABIP shouldn't be seperated when evaluating a pitcher as a starter or a reliever, unlike K and BB rates.

Now, if you still want to use BABIP as a starter, then you also have to realize that his ERA as a starter is better than his overall ERA:

His overall ERA is 2.88 with a .239 BABIP.

His ERA as a starter is 2.41 with a .220 BABIP. So while the BABIP is lower, so is the ERA. It seems you are evaluating him as a guy with a 2.88 ERA and a .220 BABIP.

While he isn't going to keep his BABIP at .239, there are already stats that normalize his stats and they all show him to be still very good. Now, I know you want to determine how he handles himself with more runners on base, etc. but I think its really a stretch if that is what is holding you back from saying he can be at least be a solid #2 starter in the majors.

[Leitch]

I endorse this position. However, I do think it's possible that (1) defenders might play a bit better behind pitchers who work fast and throw strikes, and (2) regardless of that, two pitchers on the same team can get significantly different levels of defensive support, just as they can get different levels of offensive support.

Regardless of those factors, Guthrie has been outstanding, no two ways about it.

Gun to your head, Guthrie's ERA for the rest of the season, assuming his peripherals remain similar.

[Sports Guy]

It really doesn't matter what is BABIP as as starter is. Its a batted ball one way or another and the ball doesn't know if Guthrie is starting or relieving. BABIP shouldn't be seperated when evaluating a pitcher as a starter or a reliever, unlike K and BB rates.

Now, if you still want to use BABIP as a starter, then you also have to realize that his ERA as a starter is better than his overall ERA:

His overall ERA is 2.88 with a .239 BABIP.

His ERA as a starter is 2.41 with a .220 BABIP. So while the BABIP is lower, so is the ERA. It seems you are evaluating him as a guy with a 2.88 ERA and a .220 BABIP.

While he isn't going to keep his BABIP at .239, there are already stats that normalize his stats and they all show him to be still very good. Now, I know you want to determine how he handles himself with more runners on base, etc. but I think its really a stretch if that is what is holding you back from saying he can be at least be a solid #2 starter in the majors.

What is holding me back is simple.

He needs to end the year well and pitch well next year.

It boggles my mind that ANYONE would put the tag of #2 starter on a 28 y/o with mediocre success and a very strong half season in the majors.

That is just incredible to me.

You can like what he brings to the table and you can have your opinions on him...But to say that he is/will be a no doubt about it 2/3 starter is ridiculous.

I haven't seen any of the big Guthrie supporters even remotely talk about how they need to see him do it more to annoit him. He has just be given the title and it is absurd.

He has been very good...Much better than i thought he could be based on his age and career up until now.

However, he needs to keep it up.

If you want to say he is pitching like a 1/2 starter RIGHT NOW...Fine...I can go with that.

But i am talking about projection.

BTW, you are right, i should be showing his ERA as a starter, since i am doing the same thing with his BABIP.

[Frobby]

Gun to your head, Guthrie's ERA for the rest of the season, assuming his peripherals remain similar.

Not sure which "peripherals" you mean. Assuming you mean K rate, K/BB and HR rate (not BABIP), I'd say 3.75.

[Sports Guy]

Not sure which "peripherals" you mean. Assuming you mean K rate, K/BB and HR rate (not BABIP), I'd say 3.75.

And where next season?

[Frobby]

What is holding me back is simple.

He needs to end the year well and pitch well next year.

It boggles my mind that ANYONE would put the tag of #2 starter on a 28 y/o with mediocre success and a very strong half season in the majors.

That is just incredible to me.

You can like what he brings to the table and you can have your opinions on him...But to say that he is/will be a no doubt about it 2/3 starter is ridiculous.

I haven't seen any of the big Guthrie supporters even remotely talk about how they need to see him do it more to annoit him. He has just be given the title and it is absurd.

He has been very good...Much better than i thought he could be based on his age and career up until now.

However, he needs to keep it up.

If you want to say he is pitching like a 1/2 starter RIGHT NOW...Fine...I can go with that.

But i am talking about projection.

BTW, you are right, i should be showing his ERA as a starter, since i am doing the same thing with his BABIP.

I think this is all fair enough. I think you've moderated your position a good bit since May. Personally, I'm optimistic that Guthrie can be a no. 2 starter over the next several years, but I'm sure not going to portray that as a certainty. I agree with you that, considering Guthrie's track record before this year, he needs to prove he can do this (or something like it) two years in a row. There have been an awful lot of pitchers who came through Baltimore who had one good season they couldn't repeat.