Guthrie Doubters stand up

[Rex Thunder]

I personally am what you would call a doubter. I think Guts is quite the find, but I still believe that he's eventually going to regress. I don't think this regression will be Bruce Chen style or anything; he'll probably remain a serviceable 3-5 starter, which is well above expectations for anyone signed off of waivers. I seriously doubt though whether he continues to put up a sub-3.00 ERA over the long run. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Well, I hope youre wrong too. I hope this is our payback for giving away Curt Schilling all those years ago, not to mention quite a few others. It is possible for a guy- especially a guy with number 1 pick skills, to take a while to come into his own. Cleveland must have just been the wrong place for him for one reason or another. He has found his place in Baltimore and I think he'll be a solid #2 at least for as long as we keep him. I really find it hard to believe that he could blow thru the lineups he has this year and have his confidence grow as it has, only to lose it suddenly. He has a great head on his shoulders and I don't think he'll get lazy (ala Ponson), or arrogant. He's the type of guy who will only get better now that's he's found his place.....

but fingers crossed anyway...

[Sports Guy]

His BABIP as a starter is irrelevant. His ERA as a starter is also lower. Comparing whole year BABIP to whole year ERA = comparing starter BABIP to starter ERA.

In what way was his FIP based on luck? It's only looking at his peripherals. It's factoring the luck out.

Well, i am not sure if homers are still in the "lucky" range or not.

His BBs have been lower than we can reasonably expect.

I guess luck wasn't the right word there...More like the need for more normality based on his career.

[Sports Guy]

How has he been lucky. I can't recall NUMEROUS situations this year when the defense has put him in a bad situation- and he has bailed them out. Not many O's pitchers can recover like he has in games. It's gut check times like that which define the type of pitcher he is the most to me. Guys who rise when the going gets tough. He has done it time and time again, and to say he has gotten lucky- is not only unfair, but untrue. It's not homerism when youve watched every game and know that he's the real deal. There is enough pessimists on here who bash everyone as soon as they get a chance I'd think you realize homerism isn't all it cracked up to be when dealing with a team that hasn't won in 10 years.

Give the man his due!

When the league average for BABIP is 290ish and his is almost 50 points lower, that is luck.

I linked an article talking about some of his other batted ball data being lucky as well.

[Rex Thunder]

When the league average for BABIP is 290ish and his is almost 50 points lower, that is luck.

I linked an article talking about some of his other batted ball data being lucky as well.

So, if Curt Schilling's was almost 50 points lower, would you still call it luck? I'm not a big numbers guy. It takes too long to look them up, and soemtimes they really don't tellt he whole story. I have watched all but 2 or 3 of Guthrie's start. Was at a couple personally- and I'm just amazed at his control and poise every time I watch him. For the longest time, I kept waiting for him to break- as the offense never scored him runs, or the bullpen blew a lead, or the defense made an error... but he never did. He has impressed me with such consistency that I can't call it luck- regardless of what numbers tell you.

I think his name will be up there with the elite going in to next season... and then maybe when his numbers are above "league average," it will be attributed more to his dominance, rather than his "luck."

[ScottieBaseball]

He has been lucky...Denying that is just pure homerism.

Even though I haven't read all 8+ pages of this thread, this is the only thing detracting from Guthrie's ability that I agreed with, but I have to say it's bizarre how the team seems to step up when he's on the hill. The Orioles seem to pull more diving plays and well-fielded tough ground balls with him on the mound. That's not to mention the number of times the humble Guthrie has attributed his success to his defense.

[Sports Guy]

So, if Curt Schilling's was almost 50 points lower, would you still call it luck? I'm not a big numbers guy. It takes too long to look them up, and soemtimes they really don't tellt he whole story. I have watched all but 2 or 3 of Guthrie's start. Was at a couple personally- and I'm just amazed at his control and poise every time I watch him. For the longest time, I kept waiting for him to break- as the offense never scored him runs, or the bullpen blew a lead, or the defense made an error... but he never did. He has impressed me with such consistency that I can't call it luck- regardless of what numbers tell you.

I think his name will be up there with the elite going in to next season... and then maybe when his numbers are above "league average," it will be attributed more to his dominance, rather than his "luck."

For that one year? Absolutely.

[El Gordo]

So, if Curt Schilling's was almost 50 points lower, would you still call it luck? I'm not a big numbers guy. It takes too long to look them up, and soemtimes they really don't tellt he whole story. I have watched all but 2 or 3 of Guthrie's start. Was at a couple personally- and I'm just amazed at his control and poise every time I watch him. For the longest time, I kept waiting for him to break- as the offense never scored him runs, or the bullpen blew a lead, or the defense made an error... but he never did. He has impressed me with such consistency that I can't call it luck- regardless of what numbers tell you.

I think his name will be up there with the elite going in to next season... and then maybe when his numbers are above "league average," it will be attributed more to his dominance, rather than his "luck."

When it's a close game and you're up or down by a run or two you're more likely to see those diving plays . When you're up or down by 5 or 6 there's less likelyhood of people sacricifing their bodies. Is it luck or skill that Guts keeps the score close?

[Rockford]

Comparisons are made between Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie. But shouldn't their "stuff," their pitching repertoire, be included in those comparisons? Chen often threw in the 70s and low 80s. Guthrie can hit 97 and can mix in a slider. His downfall is you can count on him to hang a few breaking balls each game.

I mean, so many continue to wait for the clock to strike midnight and Guthrie to turn into a pumpkin. Can Mazzone be given some credit for this turnaround? Or is this turnaround at this age so against the norm that you cannot explain it away with, "Well, it must be working with a different pitching coach who turned him around."

I know throwing 97 doesn't guarantee great "stuff" for a pitcher if the pitch doesn't move or if he doesn't have other reliable pitches to turn to. But I guess my point here is I have seen Guthrie several times on TV now and it would seem to me he has got more than enough good "stuff" to get the best hitters in the league out. Or am I wrong here and his 95 mph fastball and slider aren't "filthy" pitches?

[Moose Milligan]

Whatever, its a shame that Dice-K was already determined to win the ROY before the season started....Guthries pitched way better...

[Zaimoku]

...I have to say it's bizarre how the team seems to step up when he's on the hill. The Orioles seem to pull more diving plays and well-fielded tough ground balls with him on the mound. That's not to mention the number of times the humble Guthrie has attributed his success to his defense.

I don't think it's bizarre. Sounds like a normal psychological response to me, from several aspects. Players play better for someone who gives them a better chance to win. That's multiplied when the guy is likeable, too.

Can't be quantified, though, so some people won't like it.

Reading some of the comments about Guthrie today, I was reminded of this by Camus:

"How many crimes are permitted simply because their authors could not endure being wrong!"

Yeah, even Camus can be applied to baseball...

[Hallas]

Comparisons are made between Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie. But shouldn't their "stuff," their pitching repertoire, be included in those comparisons? Chen often threw in the 70s and low 80s. Guthrie can hit 97 and can mix in a slider. His downfall is you can count on him to hang a few breaking balls each game.

I mean, so many continue to wait for the clock to strike midnight and Guthrie to turn into a pumpkin. Can Mazzone be given some credit for this turnaround? Or is this turnaround at this age so against the norm that you cannot explain it away with, "Well, it must be working with a different pitching coach who turned him around."

I know throwing 97 doesn't guarantee great "stuff" for a pitcher if the pitch doesn't move or if he doesn't have other reliable pitches to turn to. But I guess my point here is I have seen Guthrie several times on TV now and it would seem to me he has got more than enough good "stuff" to get the best hitters in the league out. Or am I wrong here and his 95 mph fastball and slider aren't "filthy" pitches?

From watching Guthrie, his downside (to me) is that he really doesn't have a plus pitch besides his fastball. His change-up and his slider are good pitches, and he has good control over them, but they aren't out pitches like Bedard's ridiculous curve.

I think he's at least a solid #2 if he can stay healthy and if he can maintain that fastball command and velocity. His fastball tails away from lefties a good 3 or 4 inches in addition to that mid-90s velocity. And he gets great marks for his intelligence, which undoubtedly helps him make the most out of his abilities.

Also, Guthrie helps himself with regard to his BABIP due to the fact that he fields his position quite well.

I have concerns about him, but the concerns don't have to do with his stats; there was clearly something about him, be it an injury or fatigue or bad coaching or whatever, that prevented him from seeing this kind of success in the minors. The best case scenario for us would be that his problems were coaching related, and his results are the fruits from mechanical tweaks and adherence to Mazzone's throwing program. But there's always the concern that his body's just not cut out for throwing a baseball over a full season and he's going to wear down. I'm more concerned about that. We'll know more at the end of the season, but with each successful start we're getting closer and closer to the point where I think we all have to start counting on him to pitch successfully behind Bedard next year.

By the way, this is a different situation from Chen's; Chen walked more batters and was a much more extreme flyball pitcher in a home park that inflates HRs and generates more groundball outs. And his xFIP was 4.92 and 4.72 2004 and 2005 - a good sign that we probably shouldn't have expected much from him in 2006, when he collapsed completely.

It's also worth noting that despite being a bit lucky with his ERA, Guthrie still ranks 12th in the AL in xFIP. (Side note: Guess who's #1? I'll give you a hint. He's a mean Canadian.)

[Frobby]

From watching Guthrie, his downside (to me) is that he really doesn't have a plus pitch besides his fastball. His change-up and his slider are good pitches, and he has good control over them, but they aren't out pitches like Bedard's ridiculous curve.

I think he's at least a solid #2 if he can stay healthy and if he can maintain that fastball command and velocity. His fastball tails away from lefties a good 3 or 4 inches in addition to that mid-90s velocity. And he gets great marks for his intelligence, which undoubtedly helps him make the most out of his abilities.

This is a pretty good assessment of Guthrie. To say that he doesn't have a second out pitch like Bedard's curve is hardly a ciriticism, since Bedard's curve is probably the best in baseball right now. I think he's probably been a bit lucky, but to some degree he makes his own luck. What I mean by that is that he's fast worker with good control, which keeps the defense on their toes and allows the fielders to know which way to shade based on the expected location of the pitch. I think the league will adjsut to him, but he's a smart guy and will adjust back. He's a keeper.

[clapdiddy]

This is a pretty good assessment of Guthrie. To say that he doesn't have a second out pitch like Bedard's curve is hardly a ciriticism, since Bedard's curve is probably the best in baseball right now. I think he's probably been a bit lucky, but to some degree he makes his own luck. What I mean by that is that he's fast worker with good control, which keeps the defense on their toes and allows the fielders to know which way to shade based on the expected location of the pitch. I think the league will adjsut to him, but he's a smart guy and will adjust back. He's a keeper.

Good points, Frobby.

And, even if he's only a #4 starter in the big scheme of things, he's a pretty darn good one to have because he throws strikes and should go deep into games.

If you listen to Palmer talk about him, he insinuates that when he is on his game, the batter is hitting his pitch. I think getting ahead of hitters as often as he does makes the hitter defensive, making them less likely to hit a good pitch.

[Moose Milligan]

I just don't understand how someone can get "lucky" for 118 innings.

[Hank Scorpio]

I just don't understand how someone can get "lucky" for 118 innings.

Ask Dan Haren, he's been "lucky" for 142 innings.