Guthrie Doubters stand up

[Moose Milligan]

This is what i have thought all year as well.

But now i wonder if there is more to it than that now.

What makes you think there's more to it?

[Sports Guy]

What makes you think there's more to it?

Because his stuff is ordinary right now.

Because teams are hitting him hard and he is giving up a ton of homers.

These are things that you could always count on DCab NOT doing.

His curve not being as good make me wonder if an injury is there.

He is throwing more innings per start, so that is good.

[clapdiddy]

Because his stuff is ordinary right now.

Because teams are hitting him hard and he is giving up a ton of homers.

These are things that you could always count on DCab NOT doing.

His curve not being as good make me wonder if an injury is there.

He is throwing more innings per start, so that is good.

It doesn't appear that his fastball has the movement it used to have on it, either. Its flat a lot of times, and those are the pitches that are being hit out.

[Sports Guy]

It doesn't appear that his fastball has the movement it used to have on it, either. Its flat a lot of times, and those are the pitches that are being hit out.

Right...He has no third pitch that he is willing to throw.

His curve doesn't have the bite or effectiveness it had before and his fastball is straight most of the time.

Why is this? What is going on with him?

When Mazzone is interviewed, he isn't asked these questions...This is what i want to know.

[CrimsonTribe]

I hopped on to see what was being said about Guthrie after today's game and was surprised to see there was no new thread about it. Just a few starts ago, it seemed as though half of the guys on here were jumping ship from the Guthrie bandwagon.

Are you still there? Are you still doubting? I loved what Jim Palmer hinted at, "It's hard to annoint him as one of the game's elite pitchers, but that's what the numbers show." DEAD ON.

Guthrie is great to watch- and I love even more his positive attitude on there. Last game the defense let him down a few times- and today Payton made a big catch late to save a base hit. Guthrie's should and expression said it all. Such a great team guy- and a miracle find!

I want to know who is still doubting and why...

I personally am what you would call a doubter. I think Guts is quite the find, but I still believe that he's eventually going to regress. I don't think this regression will be Bruce Chen style or anything; he'll probably remain a serviceable 3-5 starter, which is well above expectations for anyone signed off of waivers. I seriously doubt though whether he continues to put up a sub-3.00 ERA over the long run. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

[Sports Guy]

Does any site keep swing and miss data? Baltimoron? Drungo? 1970??

[Goop]

I always thought of Guthrie to be a great pitcher. Just because someone has a few bad outings doesn't automatically mean he's gonna suck for the rest of his career.

[Eight]

Yea but how many on 3 of the lists?

And, until recently, Guthrie had a lucky FB/HR % as well.

The question i have is, what if all of these numbers regress to league average and the "luck factor" is out of it....Where would his ERA be?

FIP: 3.99
X-FIP: 4.04

We know that even with the "luck" removed he is still a very solid #1/#2 pitcher based on his peripherals. This is not something we can't determine ahead of time. We have more than enough data at our disposal to determine his numbers should look like.

And since that article was written that pegged him as lucky, his LD% has gone up to 16.8* and his BABIP has soared to .244, the two areas th. His ERA increased by a mere .26.

[Sports Guy]

FIP: 3.99
X-FIP: 4.04

We know that even with the "luck" removed he is still a very solid #1/#2 pitcher based on his peripherals. This is not something we can't determine ahead of time. We have more than enough data at our disposal to determine his numbers should look like.

And since that article was written that pegged him as lucky, his LD% has gone up to 16.8* and his BABIP has soared to .244, the two areas th. His ERA increased by a mere .26.

His BABIP as a starter is worse than that.

And yes, the FIP stats are good...Not a very solid #1 like you said but a #2.

That being said, the other part of him having his other stats be more league average is him dealing with more adversity...The adversity and thus, his confidence, has been an issue for him in the past.

So, if he had many more baserunners and were giving up more runs and things like that, how much would it effect him mentally?

It is strange to think this guy had those issues though...He carries himself differently than that but they did and have existed nonetheless.

Plus, those FIP stats are also based off the whole year, a year in which he saw a lot of luck early on.

[baltfan]

Because his stuff is ordinary right now.

Because teams are hitting him hard and he is giving up a ton of homers.

These are things that you could always count on DCab NOT doing.

His curve not being as good make me wonder if an injury is there.

He is throwing more innings per start, so that is good.

I have been saying for months that Cabrera doesn't look the same as last year. The stuff just isn't there. Last year he was hitting 100mph on the gun and his breaking ball was moving like crazy. This year his fastball is topping at 94-95 with less movement and his breaking ball is flat. He doesn't look like the same pitcher. He is either hurt or his mechanics are just an absolute mess.

[Hallas]

Yea, this is good to see.

As for what you are saying about DCab...You are 100% correct and that is one reason why, at this point, i would probably slightly lean towards Guthrie.

However, if DCab outpitches him over the next 1.5 season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Just need to see more from Guthrie.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this were to happen. Cabrera has been in the bigs for 4 years and he's still a barely-passable backend starter. Guthrie has been in the bigs for 4 months and, even adjusting for his peripherals, is pitching like a #2 or good #3 starter. On top of that, Guthrie is showing the stuff that made him a number 1 pick. It's not like he's getting by with smoke, mirrors, and an 87 MPH fastball.

[Eight]

His BABIP as a starter is worse than that.

And yes, the FIP stats are good...Not a very solid #1 like you said but a #2.

That being said, the other part of him having his other stats be more league average is him dealing with more adversity...The adversity and thus, his confidence, has been an issue for him in the past.

So, if he had many more baserunners and were giving up more runs and things like that, how much would it effect him mentally?

It is strange to think this guy had those issues though...He carries himself differently than that but they did and have existed nonetheless.

Plus, those FIP stats are also based off the whole year, a year in which he saw a lot of luck early on.

His BABIP as a starter is irrelevant. His ERA as a starter is also lower. Comparing whole year BABIP to whole year ERA = comparing starter BABIP to starter ERA.

In what way was his FIP based on luck? It's only looking at his peripherals. It's factoring the luck out.

[Say O!]

I'd be absolutely shocked if this were to happen. Cabrera has been in the bigs for 4 years and he's still a barely-passable backend starter. Guthrie has been in the bigs for 4 months and, even adjusting for his peripherals, is pitching like a #2 or good #3 starter. On top of that, Guthrie is showing the stuff that made him a number 1 pick. It's not like he's getting by with smoke, mirrors, and an 87 MPH fastball.

Speaking of which, how was Guthrie's velocity today? Mid-Hi 90's like when he was more dominant, or low 90-91 when he got hit up earlier in the month???

[Babypowder]

Speaking of which, how was Guthrie's velocity today? Mid-Hi 90's like when he was more dominant, or low 90-91 when he got hit up earlier in the month???

He was right around 90 most of the game according to the gun on MASN. He got it up to 94 or 95 a few pitches. But for the most part he was working 89-92.

[Rex Thunder]

He has been lucky...Denying that is just pure homerism.

How has he been lucky. I can't recall NUMEROUS situations this year when the defense has put him in a bad situation- and he has bailed them out. Not many O's pitchers can recover like he has in games. It's gut check times like that which define the type of pitcher he is the most to me. Guys who rise when the going gets tough. He has done it time and time again, and to say he has gotten lucky- is not only unfair, but untrue. It's not homerism when youve watched every game and know that he's the real deal. There is enough pessimists on here who bash everyone as soon as they get a chance I'd think you realize homerism isn't all it cracked up to be when dealing with a team that hasn't won in 10 years.

Give the man his due!