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08-25-2007 02:31 PM #61
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What I was talking about specifically was Tejada's defense since returning frm the DL, not his defense overall. The numbers don't lie here:
Originally Posted by DrungoHazewood
6 errors in 69 games pre-DL
5 errors in 24 games post-DL
ZR has dropped from .862 on 7/31 to .845 now.
BP's Rate/Rate2 has gone from 99/100 on July 31 to 92/92 now.
No matter how you slice it he has played bad defense this month.
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08-25-2007 02:32 PM #62
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Between Mackus and SG i dont know which of you hate Hernandez the most.
Seems to me this kid just needs a chance. Maybe the same chance Omar Vizquel got.
Hernandez MIL # .250 .299 .325 .624
Omar Vizquel MIL# .241 .321 .319 .640
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08-25-2007 02:35 PM #63
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We don't need less offense. We suffer from anemic offense. Don't hobble the offense for a barely negligible return on defense. If we could afford to lose Tejada's bat, I'd love to stick a defensive SS. But we don't. So we can't. Originally Posted by fansince71
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08-25-2007 02:36 PM #64
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No disagreement there. I'm just taking issue with the implied assumption that other shortstops are much more consistent. Originally Posted by Frobby
I've always thought that defense slumps, just like any other facet of a player's game. I'd be surprised if a typical 15 or 20 errors from a player were distributed three a month. It's probably more like 5, 0, 1, 4, 7, 3.
People tend to think random distributions in nature are less lumpy than they really are.
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08-25-2007 02:36 PM #65
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I don't hate Hernandez, I think he can be an ok utility guy. But he will never be a starting player in the major leagues. He doesn't field well enough to make up for his complete lack of a bat. People see two weeks and think the guy is a God. He played fantastic defense for two weeks, I won't argue that. I will argue that over an entire season, his defense won't be nearly that good. Originally Posted by fansince71
Until he got to Cleveland, Vizquel didn't hit well enough to help his team. Despite his slick glove, an average hitting, average fielding SS was a much better player. You can't carry a sub-600 or low 600s OPS and be helping your team unless you're good enough to play two defensive positions at once.
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08-25-2007 02:36 PM #66
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Omar couldn't hit, and this kid is worse than him. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Why go to a very good fielder with no bat when you already have a decent fielder with a good bat? I just don't get it. Originally Posted by fansince71
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08-25-2007 02:37 PM #67
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You know Tom Davis must of been talking about Duq, Flannagan or McPhail when they spoke of moving Tejada to third. Those guys had to sit in on trade feelers on Tejada the last two years or so(not of course McPhail). They know who bit on the waiver wire. They know how much intrest is in the league for Tejada at SS or third. So I am certain if we keep him at SS he is being traded. If we have any thought of keeping him it makes no sense not to get a head start on next season and start the experiment now.
If we break it to Tejada in the winter he might not be prepared. Ala Gibbons and the debacle at Firstbase.
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08-25-2007 02:38 PM #68
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The problem with moving Tejada is that we have no capable replacement for him at SS. Find a replacement, then moving him becomes a more suitable option (still think trading him is a much better choice though). Originally Posted by gurgi
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08-25-2007 02:38 PM #69
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You know, I like Tom Davis, he's been around for years, but he's pretty much the prototype for Jim Hunter.
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08-25-2007 02:39 PM #70
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Makes sense to me. Even as a team the O's have had wild fluctuations month-to-month. Originally Posted by DrungoHazewood
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08-25-2007 02:40 PM #71
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Oh, no doubt. Players definitely have slumps defensively, especially the ones with higher chance numbers. Originally Posted by DrungoHazewood
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08-25-2007 02:40 PM #72
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This is the Jamie Moyer defense. It's basically that Jamie Moyer started off looking like he'd have about a 15-minute career, and he's ended up being a great pitcher into his mid-40s. So it follows that any bad pitcher who's left-handed and throws 86 mph is the next Jamie Moyer. Originally Posted by fansince71
Omar Vizquel's offensive growth was not normal at all. It was quite extraordinary from where he began. There are hundreds of times more players who started off with .625 OPSs and ended up with .625 OPSes than those who went on to HOF-type careers.
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08-25-2007 02:42 PM #73
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Small sample size cuts both ways.
Cory Doyne (or Hoey, Olson, Penn, Maine) has great MiL stats, bombs in ML audition.
Luis Hernandez has poor MiL stats, shines in ML audition (.333, 12 for 36).
Do you go with the projections - suffer the Doyne meltdowns and keep hoping he finds it; call Hernandez a fluke and banish him to the minors ASAP?
Or do you go with what they actually show in the Show - get Doyne back on the bus to AAA, and ride the Hernandez hits as long as they keep coming?Last edited by now; 08-25-2007 at 02:44 PM.
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08-25-2007 02:43 PM #74
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Neither is likely to be a good MLer IMO. Originally Posted by now
So, you get rid of both and get better options.
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08-25-2007 02:45 PM #75
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This is a rhetorical question, right? You're not actually asking us for an answer are you? Originally Posted by now
If you just ride out the hot flukes, then you might as well base your callups on a random number generator and hope for the best.
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