Roberts to Cubs update

[Lucky Jim]

Sorry, just wanted to point those out.

I hope Texeira knows that he's coming here. After all, it's pretty apparent that everyone here seems to know that he will be.

Apparently, many OH posters can predict the future.

That, or their psychics have uncannily accurate tea leaves.

[FutureOwner]

Apparently, many OH posters can predict the future.

That, or their psychics have uncannily accurate tea leaves.

Yes, they can tell that theres nothing that the Orioles can do to improve the team enough in the next two years to make Bedard or Roberts stay, so they should give him away asap.

Never mind the huge salary reduction to the payroll over the next 3 offseasons, or the players who will be available during that time. Lets ignore that and focus on trading Bedard and Roberts for whatever offer suits the Mariner, Reds or Angels.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes, they can tell that theres nothing that the Orioles can do to improve the team enough in the next two years to make Bedard or Roberts stay, so they should give him away asap.

Never mind the huge salary reduction to the payroll over the next 3 offseasons, or the players who will be available during that time. Lets ignore that and focus on trading Bedard and Roberts for whatever offer suits the Mariner, Reds or Angels.

Why is it one or the other? What is the probability that Bedard changes his mind? What is his value if he doesn't? What is the risk? For the right package, it's worth trading him. It's not, otherwise.

I don't think Roberts is a worry - he might stay if we compete. It's just that he'll be well into his 30s and likely in decline. And so his value is better in trade than for a team likely (not certain) to struggle for the next two years.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes, they can tell that theres nothing that the Orioles can do to improve the team enough in the next two years to make Bedard or Roberts stay, so they should give him away asap.

Never mind the huge salary reduction to the payroll over the next 3 offseasons, or the players who will be available during that time. Lets ignore that and focus on trading Bedard and Roberts for whatever offer suits the Mariner, Reds or Angels.

This is just baffling.

First of all, we're not just "giving" them away. I don't like to use the word "ignorance" because it's pretty strong, but this post smells like a cropdusting of it. We'd be getting some good pieces back in return. Kind of, like, you know, how Billy Beane has constructed the A's out west. But nah, I wouldn't want a team like that. Would you?

Nevermind the fact that none of us truly knows what players will be available over the next few years. I know that everyone likes to think that Tex will somehow fall in our lap and takes that for granted. What happens when ATL throws a serious offer at him to stay and he takes it?

The hypocrisy in your prior post is stunning, specifically where you talk about not knowing what'll happen, but then acting so sure that Reimold will pan out, and we'll end up with Blalock and Tex.

[JTrea81]

Good golly Trea. Did someone eat your clam chowder this morning? Why not give AM more time to see what the best trades he can get for the O's? We all want trades to happen so the O's can get better. I understnd your impatience. I am as well. I jsut believe it is better that AM is holding out. I beleive he will accomplish more for the O'sby doing that. Once some ofthe other pitchers are traded some team is going to be desperate. They will trade with the O's to get Bedard. Trea i didn't mean to hurt your feelings. If i came off to strong i apologize.

No feelings were hurt, in fact this is the only post contradicting me that hasn't referred to me as a lunatic or in other condescending ways. I just see a lot of negatives here if MacPhail waits and I'm just pointing things out the way I see them. In my opinion there is more evidence that MacPhail has nothing to gain by holding out, and everything to lose...

[Moose Milligan]

No feelings were hurt, in fact this is the only post contradicting me that hasn't referred to me as a lunatic or in other condescending ways. I just see a lot of negatives here if MacPhail waits and I'm just pointing things out the way I see them. In my opinion there is more evidence that MacPhail has nothing to gain by holding out, and everything to lose...

Well, you are a lunatic. And I mean that in a good way

[Tx Oriole]

Well you may be right. Time will tell how it works out. As for the trade to the Cubs if it happens i am fine with it.

[ChaosLex]

This is just baffling.

First of all, we're not just "giving" them away. I don't like to use the word "ignorance" because it's pretty strong, but this post smells like a cropdusting of it. We'd be getting some good pieces back in return. Kind of, like, you know, how Billy Beane has constructed the A's out west. But nah, I wouldn't want a team like that. Would you?

Nevermind the fact that none of us truly knows what players will be available over the next few years. I know that everyone likes to think that Tex will somehow fall in our lap and takes that for granted. What happens when ATL throws a serious offer at him to stay and he takes it?

The hypocrisy in your prior post is stunning, specifically where you talk about not knowing what'll happen, but then acting so sure that Reimold will pan out, and we'll end up with Blalock and Tex.

Good post. I think some people fail to realize that a deal of Jones, Clement, Sherrill, and Tillman is a fantastic return for Bedard.

If that's what the Mariners are offering, MacPhail would be absolutely foolish to hold out for more.

[Moose Milligan]

Good post. I think some people fail to realize that a deal of Jones, Clement, Sherrill, and Tillman is a fantastic return for Bedard.

If that's what the Mariners are offering, MacPhail would be absolutely foolish to hold out for more.

I agree. Only thing I'm not too sure about is Jones' power potential. But by all accounts he should turn out to be a good player.

I think people are just apprehensive because they've never heard of or seen these players we're talking about acquiring. Therefore the easiest thing to do is just dismiss them and talk bad about them instead of exploring the possibilities they could bring to the future of this team.

[glenn__davis]

Good post. I think some people fail to realize that a deal of Jones, Clement, Sherrill, and Tillman is a fantastic return for Bedard.

If that's what the Mariners are offering, MacPhail would be absolutely foolish to hold out for more.

Actually, I think most people on the board (obviously there will always be exceptions) would be quite happy with that return.

I think most "skeptics" of this trade are just questioning whether or not it's on the table and how strongly MacPhail believes something better will come up.

[markakis4pres]

I agree. Only thing I'm not too sure about is Jones' power potential. But by all accounts he should turn out to be a good player.

I think people are just apprehensive because they've never heard of or seen these players we're talking about acquiring. Therefore the easiest thing to do is just dismiss them and talk bad about them instead of exploring the possibilities they could bring to the future of this team.

Very well said

They see that there best player is being traded and dont see the ML type players coming back.

These players are going to be the ML players you want back, it will just take more time.

Trading for multiple players who fill the needs of the team in the future is more important than having someone for 2 years.

[NoVaO]

I agree. Only thing I'm not too sure about is Jones' power potential. But by all accounts he should turn out to be a good player.

I think people are just apprehensive because they've never heard of or seen these players we're talking about acquiring. Therefore the easiest thing to do is just dismiss them and talk bad about them instead of exploring the possibilities they could bring to the future of this team.

Not concerned at all with his power potential. If anything, his strike zone judgement is the only questionable thing about him in my mind, but that it isn't too big a deal for me.

Jones had a .272 ISO power in a heavy pitcher's park as a 22 year old. Plus power to all fields. And even if he never reaches his full offensive potential, he still saves you 10 - 20 runs per year at a premium defensive position.

[vatech1994]

You didn't answer my question. I'll try again.

Do you believe what you wrote in post #46 is fact or opinion?

What does it matter?

Are you trying to be funny? If so, it isn't working. It matters a lot. I'm sure you know the difference between fact and opinion and that one shouldn't be confused with the other.

Regarding what you did write above, you realize that everything you wrote here is opinion and/or speculation, right? None of it is fact.

Again this is a message board. Last time I checked we were allowed to speculate, but there is a lot of evidence out there to support the speculation. Even though you seem to think speculation and those who do speculate are beneath you it isn't against the rules...

I've got no problem with you speculating so long as you call it speculation, opinion, whatever... I made this clear multiple times. That isn't what you've been doing.

Regarding "lot of evidence", there is no evidence at all that Bedard's value has gone down because of the Haren trade that I'm aware of and you certainly haven't offered any.

I also don't think your take on Macphail isn't accurate. MacPhail hasn't been reported to be holding out for 3-4 blue chip prospects for Bedard from what I've read and heard unless you define blue chip differently than I do.

He wants Jones, Morrow and Clement for Bedard while the Mariners are offering Jones and Clement. Morrow is seen as a blue chip prospect by some clubs, even though I disagree with that, he is still a blue chipper in MacPhail's eyes. He wanted Bailey, Cueto and Votto from the Reds and wanted Kemp and Kershaw and LaRoche from the Dodgers. This has all been reported in the media and by our insiders.

Again, this isn't true. I searched for insider posts indicating that we wanted all of Kemp, Kershaw, and LaRoche from the Dodgers or Bailey, Cueto, and Votto from the Reds or Jones, Clement, and Morrow from the Mariners and found nothing that indicated we wanted all three of these guys for just Bedard.

Here is what I found by team:
Dodgers
I found this post from Belkast for a combo of these guys but not Bedard by himself. There is nothing else out there mentioning these four names:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...earchid=131731

This post from Peace blatantly contradicts what you're saying here. There is nothing else out there:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...aw#post1111310

Nothing from BB in any of these posts supporting what you're saying:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...earchid=131736

I also have searched for media reports. I found nothing that wasn't contained in fan blogs.

Reds
I found nada from BB or Peace on us demanding this from the Reds. I found one post from Belkast contradicting it:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...to#post1138180
I found one article with this info, but it says "3 top prospects - probably Bailey, Votto, & Cueto" so it isn't very dependable
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...to#post1138180

Haren had the most value on the market IMO. He was a better pitcher than Santana last season, signed to a reasonable contract for the next three years, not just two or one and he was more durable than Bedard. So you didn't have to worry about him leaving in two years, getting hurt or having to sign him to a lucrative extension.

At least you couched this as an opinion. I disagree with you and I believe most analysts would disagree with everything you wrote here.

I think there are about 5 factors that you aren't even considering in this "analysis", but Lucky Jim hit on them pretty well and you responded with something that had nothing to do with his post so I'm going to save my fingers the wear and tear and move on.

Can you explain to me how you "set the market" in a negotiation? To be clear, I want you to explain how MacPhail was supposed to get the price he wanted for Bedard from the team he wanted on a deadline (prior to the Haren trade). You seem to be really good at this stuff, so I'd like to see what you would have done to make this happen. I'd like to learn. Thanks

All he had to do was pull the trigger. Make the trade before anybody else and you set the market. Class dismissed...

I don't think there is anything I could write in response to your answer to this complex question that could discredit you any further than what you did to yourself, so I'm just going to ROTFLMAO and move on.

No feelings were hurt, in fact this is the only post contradicting me that hasn't referred to me as a lunatic or in other condescending ways.

You know I really don't enjoy being condescending and I try to avoid it at all costs, but I'm not sure what else to do when you type outrageous stuff like "MacPhail is a real brain surgeon" and "Bedard's value is definitely lower because we waited" and "MacPhail should have set the market by, ummm, pulling the trigger" and then you refuse to support or re-couch your statements when called on them.

I just see a lot of negatives here if MacPhail waits and I'm just pointing things out the way I see them. In my opinion there is more evidence that MacPhail has nothing to gain by holding out, and everything to lose...

There is nothing wrong with this statement at all, because it is clear you're just offering your opinion which is exactly why we're here. If your previous statements had been offered in such a way, I wouldn't have even bothered responding.

[ChaosLex]

Actually, I think most people on the board (obviously there will always be exceptions) would be quite happy with that return.

I think most "skeptics" of this trade are just questioning whether or not it's on the table and how strongly MacPhail believes something better will come up.

I know, I just didn't want to call anyone in particular out. I'm not really feeling argumentative today.

[vatech1994]

Actually, I think most people on the board (obviously there will always be exceptions) would be quite happy with that return.

I think most "skeptics" of this trade are just questioning whether or not it's on the table and how strongly MacPhail believes something better will come up.

I'm happy with that trade. I just don't want MacPhail to make that trade now if he thinks it will get better. I want him to milk every ounce out of that cow that he can get. If he is waiting, he must think he can and will do better. If he ends up settling for worse, I won't be happy. However, I think I'll wait for this process to play out first. Call me crazy.....