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Thread: Evaluate the Bedard trade
02-01-2008 08:24 AM #1Plus Member since 11/03 Hall of Fame
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Evaluate the Bedard trade
OK, it appears like it will be done soon. Everything seems to be in line. Roch has moved on to Roberts. So what do you think of the trade? Who wins? Who loses?
The trade is Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. The O's probably waive Roberson to make room for Sherrill.
My opinion is that over the next 4 years the Mariners won, after that it is anyones guess.
For the next 4 years the trade at the major league level is Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, and maybe Mickolio. Barring injury which could happen on either side of this trade, the Mariners got the guy that is likely to perform the best.
Bulter and Tilman will likely spend three more years in the minors and a rookie year in the majors before their performance turns into a positive at the major league level. Penn, Olson, Albers, Hoey; their first appearances at the major league level were not pretty. I expect Tillman and Butler to has similar starts to their careers. Then, hopefully they will have very good majors league careers.
MacPhail did not get Morrow or Clement or Balentien. They would all have supplied more, sooner at the major league level. The Cinny trade might be as good or better without Bruce. Jones should be a very good player.
So, I think the Mariners win until 2012, then there is the chance the O's may win. It will be a long, long time before this trade can be fully evaluated.
Last edited by wildcard; 02-01-2008 at 08:32 AM.
02-01-2008 08:27 AM #2
02-01-2008 08:29 AM #3
It really depends. In my opinion, Tillman will only take two years to get up here, while Butler will get up here in the middle of '10.
02-01-2008 08:34 AM #4
How do the Mariners win over the next 4 years when they might only have Bedard for two?
I think both teams win. The Mariners traded two players who would have helped them this year but Jones is probably replaceable by someone like Balentien. The loss of Sherrill hurts them in the pen.
The O's get 3 high ceiling talents in Jones, Tillman, & Butler. If even one guy reaches that potential at a fairly young age they've broken even, IMO. Sherrill helps immediately and Mickolio could be a sleeper in the pen. In 5 players, the risk is spread out. In Bedard, the Mariners get one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but the risk is there also.
The trade makes sense for both teams but it makes more sense for the Orioles. The O's win. Even a lot of Mariner fans don't think Bedard puts them into the playoffs.
02-01-2008 08:36 AM #5
I really don't know where to even start with you. You talk about Seattle winning the trade for the next four years, but EB is only signed for the next two years. Assuming anything beyond those two years is a huge leap. And if you point to that BS article from last week where EB said in the same breath "I wouldn't mind staying" but "I don't want to be part of a rebuild" and "we wouldn't mind extending" but "we'd rather go year-by-year than discuss a three year deal", I may lose it at you.
I get that your partial to the guys that are already here. I think it is clear that very few people agree with your stance. However, some of the stuff you're typing in "analysis" these days is really off base.
To give my opinion:
2008 - Seattle is probably a 60-70% favorite to get more value from EB than we get from Jones, Sherill, etc...
2009 - Seattle is probably a 50-60% favorite to get more value from EB than we get from Jones, Sherill, etc... By the Micolio (sp?) is likely to be contributing by 2008 or 2009 since he has already pitched half a season in AAA...
2010 - The analysis has to split.
Baltimore is virtually a shoe in to get more value from the new guys than we would have gotten from EB, because there is a very high likelihood that he would leave via FA.
Analyzing vs Seattle, I still think the likelihood that we win the trade is very high, because I don't believe EB will stay in Seattle either (though I think it is more likely for them, maybe 50:50). Even if he does stay, I think it is very likely Baltimore gets more value from Jones & company because some portion of the others will be here by then if all goes well.
The scenario that the last three in this trade won't impact the majors until 2012 is hardly realistic. If they don't make the majors before 2012, then these players are likely busts.
02-01-2008 08:38 AM #6Plus Member since 11/03 Hall of Fame
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02-01-2008 08:39 AM #7Plus Member Since 09/03 Hall of Fame
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I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.
02-01-2008 08:41 AM #8
02-01-2008 08:42 AM #9
02-01-2008 08:42 AM #10
02-01-2008 08:42 AM #11Plus Member since 11/03 Hall of Fame
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02-01-2008 08:42 AM #12
By next year Jones will make you forget Bedard. The pitching we got is icing on the cake. Great deal for the Birds.
02-01-2008 08:42 AM #13
Your question assumes that "winning" is some agreed upon definition, however, Baltimore and Seattle have two different agendas right now. We are faced with the choice of purgatory with our current stars or the potential for something better without. In that light the Bedard and BRob trades (assuming they go through and we get fair value in return) = "winning" for us. Meanwhile Seattle is trying to win a championship now so of course in the short term they're "winning" too.
Your definition appears to be immediate contributions to the major league ball club. So of course we're going to be losing at first, that's the whole point of rebuilding. We're going to be winning at the minor league levels. We're going to be cheaper with more payroll flexibility. We're going to be stockpiled with young arms, if enough of which turn out will give us a talented cheap young rotation and bullpen. Or, we can trade away from that depth to fill position needs.
Again, there is no winner or loser here, just two teams who've satisfied their particular agendas.
02-01-2008 08:44 AM #14
02-01-2008 08:46 AM #15
Sorry guys but at last check the trade hasn't been announced between last night at around midnight & now... Should I check ESPN ?
Anyway one of the insiders suggested that it was a 6 for 2.
And that you can remove 2 guys from Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler,& Mikikos.
While I'd love to futher dig into this why not wait for the deal to be announced before we do?