L. Hernandez Experiment Coming to an End?

[Sports Guy]

I blame AM for this...He should get us a real SS so we can discuss other things on the Hangout!

I just continue to be amazed that people think LH should be the starter.

[El Gordo]

Me, and most statistical measures, disagree completely. Of course that depends on just how wide the gap between "above average" and "below average" defender is. Its very easy to figure out how many more runs a team will score with a .550 OPS SS as opposed to a .680 OPS guy, but not so much between the generic "above" and "below" average terms.

I think the term "a team depending on pitching and defense" is a bit disingenuine. Every team depends on pitching and defense. No team depends on those things exclusively, or can afford to sacrifice any concern for offense out of desire for a strong defensive team. I still don't understand how someone can think a player that is worth more runs to a team overall is a poorer choice for SS than someone who is worth less runs, but more runs on defense. I can't fathom why someone would want a +20 runs on defense, -40 runs offense guy over a +5 runs on defense, -10 runs on offense guy (guys made up, not Hernandez or Cintron or Fahey, just generic).

From what I've heard of Cintron's current state, and his general defensive abilities from earlier season, he might be even worst than just "below" average defensively, so I probably wouldn't make the switch. I would switch Hernandez and Fahey though, or at least play them equally until one shows they suck slightly less.

Good defense at the most defensive intensive position is more important to a team that is developing it's young SP than .130 OPS. We are not talking about imaginary SS options we are talking about the relative value to this team of LH, Cintron, or Fahey. Playing Fahey and LH until one emerges is exactly what DT is doing.

[Mackus]

Good defense at the most defensive intensive position is more important to a team that is developing it's young SP than .130 OPS. We are not talking about imaginary SS options we are talking about the relative value to this team of LH, Cintron, or Fahey. Playing Fahey and LH until one emerges is exactly what DT is doing.

I think we're having multiple conversations. One is a debate between Hernandez or someone else. Don't even begin to suggest he's playing Hernandez and Fahey until one emerges. Hernandez has been the starter almost exclusively. Its clearly his job (and he's doing a god-awful job of it). If he keep struggling, Fahey or Cintron will likely take over.

The other debate is if defense or offense is more important. We very clearly have been having this debate, so its not only whether Fahey, Hernandez, or Cintron is better. They're all terrible is really all that matters. But my point from my last post remains, I'm in utter disbelief that anybody could possibly prefer a +20 defense, -40 offense SS to a +5/-20 guy, or any other such combination that would result in an overall advantage in runs scored. A guys contribution is a combination of his offensive and defensive (and baserunning, for that matter) contributions. You can't simply say Hernandez is a better option than Cintron simply because Hernandez is a +10 run defender and Cintron is a -5 (estimates). If Cintron is worth 20 runs more than Hernandez offensively, he should be the choice.

[Sports Guy]

I think we're having multiple conversations. One is a debate between Hernandez or someone else. Don't even begin to suggest he's playing Hernandez and Fahey until one emerges. Hernandez has been the starter almost exclusively. Its clearly his job (and he's doing a god-awful job of it). If he keep struggling, Fahey or Cintron will likely take over.

The other debate is if defense or offense is more important. We very clearly have been having this debate, so its not only whether Fahey, Hernandez, or Cintron is better. They're all terrible is really all that matters. But my point from my last post remains, I'm in utter disbelief that anybody could possibly prefer a +20 defense, -40 offense SS to a +5/-20 guy, or any other such combination that would result in an overall advantage in runs scored. A guys contribution is a combination of his offensive and defensive (and baserunning, for that matter) contributions. You can't simply say Hernandez is a better option than Cintron simply because Hernandez is a +10 run defender and Cintron is a -5 (estimates). If Cintron is worth 20 runs more than Hernandez offensively, he should be the choice.

If you would trade Hanley Ramirez for Adam Everett, please speak up.

[DrungoHazewood]

Good defense at the most defensive intensive position is more important to a team that is developing it's young SP than .130 OPS. We are not talking about imaginary SS options we are talking about the relative value to this team of LH, Cintron, or Fahey. Playing Fahey and LH until one emerges is exactly what DT is doing.

It's also important that a young pitcher be able to trust that his shortstop isn't so bad at bat that the other team is walking the #8 hitter to get to him.

You're acting like there's only one side to the game, and that all young pitchers care about is a great glove behind them. Why doesn't an automatic out in the lineup impact them just as negatively? Why don't they want a great glove at every position? Is there any level of offensive ineptitude that would make a good defensive shortstop unworthy of a starting job on the Orioles?

Shortstop isn't this center-of-the-universe position where defense is 100% of the game. Shortstops don't field that many more balls than a center fielder or a second baseman. They aren't involved in nearly as many plays as a catcher. Yet we don't see folks clamoring for a no-hit, all-glove player in center or behind the dish.

It's all a balance. This is the best league with the best players in the world. You don't compete with zeros in the lineup unless their gloves are spectacular, and even that has a limit. If Mark Belanger had hit like a pitcher even his glove couldn't have rescued him from obscurity.

[Sports Guy]

It's also important that a young pitcher be able to trust that his shortstop isn't so bad at bat that the other team is walking the #8 hitter to get to him.

You're acting like there's only one side to the game, and that all young pitchers care about is a great glove behind them. Why doesn't an automatic out in the lineup impact them just as negatively? Why don't they want a great glove at every position? Is there any level of offensive ineptitude that would make a good defensive shortstop unworthy of a starting job on the Orioles?
Shortstop isn't this center-of-the-universe position where defense is 100% of the game. Shortstops don't field that many more balls than a center fielder or a second baseman. They aren't involved in nearly as many plays as a catcher. Yet we don't see folks clamoring for a no-hit, all-glove player in center or behind the dish.

It's all a balance. This is the best league with the best players in the world. You don't compete with zeros in the lineup unless their gloves are spectacular, and even that has a limit. If Mark Belanger had hit like a pitcher even his glove couldn't have rescued him from obscurity.

I asked these same questions before and of course, they went unanswered, so I expect that to happen again.

And how dare you wanting a player who actually can do both things well.....Wanting balance in a player is so stupid Jon...What is wrong with you?

[DrungoHazewood]

But my point from my last post remains, I'm in utter disbelief that anybody could possibly prefer a +20 defense, -40 offense SS to a +5/-20 guy, or any other such combination that would result in an overall advantage in runs scored. A guys contribution is a combination of his offensive and defensive (and baserunning, for that matter) contributions. You can't simply say Hernandez is a better option than Cintron simply because Hernandez is a +10 run defender and Cintron is a -5 (estimates). If Cintron is worth 20 runs more than Hernandez offensively, he should be the choice.

Maybe El Gordo believes that winning is less important than the development of young pitchers. That balance between offense and defense is only important if you care to win as many ballgames as possible.

[Mackus]

Maybe El Gordo believes that winning is less important than the development of young pitchers. That balance between offense and defense is only important if you care to win as many ballgames as possible.

Well to be honest, I'd accept that as an answer for this season, provided we had some young pitchers in the rotation. Other than Loewen, we really don't. But if in midseason we've got Albers and Penn and Olson and any other young guys getting consistent starts, I'd be fine with sacrificing a few team wins to get those guys some better numbers and developed quicker.

I'm not exactly sure a slightly better defensive SS helps pitchers develop any faster than having a better offense supporting them would, but that's a different debate.

[ChaosLex]

I blame AM for this...He should get us a real SS so we can discuss other things on the Hangout!

I just continue to be amazed that people think LH should be the starter.

IIRC, wasn't there someone that said LH is a starter, just because he has a trading card?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not exactly sure a slightly better defensive SS helps pitchers develop any faster than having a better offense supporting them would, but that's a different debate.

I don't believe it either. But maybe some people like El Gordo do, and that's why they think great defense at one position is more important than winning.

[Fan4Life]

Bottom line of it was - if your OPS is at .600, you'd better be the best defensive SS in all of baseball. If you're not, you can't justify that level of offense. So if LH is going to have a sub-.600 OPS (probable) and be merely above average defensively, you can't justify him at the starting SS.

Which has always been mine and many other people's argument on here.

Based on Trembley's comments recently, he doesn't believe he's cutting it either.

[osfan83]

Good defense at the most defensive intensive position is more important to a team that is developing it's young SP than .130 OPS. We are not talking about imaginary SS options we are talking about the relative value to this team of LH, Cintron, or Fahey. Playing Fahey and LH until one emerges is exactly what DT is doing.

I can also argue that a poor offensive team puts too much pressure on starting pitchers as well, forcing them to hold opponents to only 1 or 2 runs per start to keep his team in the game.

[El Gordo]

It's also important that a young pitcher be able to trust that his shortstop isn't so bad at bat that the other team is walking the #8 hitter to get to him.

You're acting like there's only one side to the game, and that all young pitchers care about is a great glove behind them. Why doesn't an automatic out in the lineup impact them just as negatively? Why don't they want a great glove at every position? Is there any level of offensive ineptitude that would make a good defensive shortstop unworthy of a starting job on the Orioles?

Shortstop isn't this center-of-the-universe position where defense is 100% of the game. Shortstops don't field that many more balls than a center fielder or a second baseman. They aren't involved in nearly as many plays as a catcher. Yet we don't see folks clamoring for a no-hit, all-glove player in center or behind the dish.

It's all a balance. This is the best league with the best players in the world. You don't compete with zeros in the lineup unless their gloves are spectacular, and even that has a limit. If Mark Belanger had hit like a pitcher even his glove couldn't have rescued him from obscurity.

So you would prefer a SS who was a -10 defender to say a + 15 SS, if he hit .130 OPS higher, under any circumstances? It doesn't matter weither it's for a team like the '07 Red Sox or the 07 D'backs?

[El Gordo]

I think we're having multiple conversations. One is a debate between Hernandez or someone else. Don't even begin to suggest he's playing Hernandez and Fahey until one emerges. Hernandez has been the starter almost exclusively. Its clearly his job (and he's doing a god-awful job of it). If he keep struggling, Fahey or Cintron will likely take over.

The other debate is if defense or offense is more important. We very clearly have been having this debate, so its not only whether Fahey, Hernandez, or Cintron is better. They're all terrible is really all that matters. But my point from my last post remains, I'm in utter disbelief that anybody could possibly prefer a +20 defense, -40 offense SS to a +5/-20 guy, or any other such combination that would result in an overall advantage in runs scored. A guys contribution is a combination of his offensive and defensive (and baserunning, for that matter) contributions. You can't simply say Hernandez is a better option than Cintron simply because Hernandez is a +10 run defender and Cintron is a -5 (estimates). If Cintron is worth 20 runs more than Hernandez offensively, he should be the choice.

I really wasn't aware that we were having this debate but I would say that they are equally important but if I had to give an edge to one side or the other I would pick the defense.

[Mackus]

So you would prefer a SS who was a -10 defender to say a + 15 SS, if he hit .130 OPS higher, under any circumstances? It doesn't matter weither it's for a team like the '07 Red Sox or the 07 D'backs?

I don't know exactly how many runs + or - a .130 point OPS difference makes.

I'm gonna guess that the guy with the .130 higher OPS is worth about 40 more runs on offense, so if he's plus 40 on offense and -25 on defense compared to the other guy, I'd take him, my team will be 15 runs better.