What I was just told

[Sports Guy]

Okay. I take my lumps. I didn't do a research trail of facts because I mistakenly thought Sports Guy who posts a lot (maybe even more than I) would know what the general consensus of Scott homer predictions were on the board prior to the start of the season. My bad.

I already said what the general consensus was...25 homers, give or take.

You take what 1 or 2 people thought and claim it was a board-wide opinion.

[Old#5fan]

I already said what the general consensus was...25 homers, give or take.

You take what 1 or 2 people thought and claim it was a board-wide opinion.

And you seem to like to revise things in your favor. I would stake my life that there was at least one poster blathering about 40 homers. The reason I state this is it wasn't merely my imagination. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw it in astonishment. I recall posting that there was no way that was going to happen and the whole Luke Scott argument took off from there. There were also plenty of posters spouting 30 or more. I know that as well. I think even NewMarketSean thought as much and Drungo. The funny thing though is once I started posting lower teens as my prediction some of these other people's grossly inflated homer numbers started coming down. I stand by that take as it is what occurred as I recall it. I think even BaltimoreTerp may have been predicting 30 plus homers. There was a slew of posters until I rebutted with my low teen predictions and then they started lowering their predictions albeit still in the 20-25 range.

I guess if I have to, I will try to pull up the original Luke Scott threads.

[Sports Guy]

And you seem to like to revise things in your favor. I would stake my life that there was at least one poster blathering about 40 homers.

LOL...Revising things? Did I not say in the post that you quoted that you are listening to what 1 or 2 people said? You really need to read.

The reason I state this is it wasn't merely my imagination. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw it in astonishment. I recall posting that there was no way that was going to happen and the whole Luke Scott argument took off from there. There were also plenty of posters spouting 30 or more. I know that as well. I think even NewMarketSean thought as much and Drungo. The funny thing though is once I started posting lower teens as my prediction some of these other people's grossly inflated homer numbers started coming down. I stand by that take as it is what occurred as I recall it. I think even BaltimoreTerp may have been predicting 30 plus homers. There was a slew of posters until I rebutted with my low teen predictions and then they started lowering their predictions albeit still in the 20-25 range.

30 homers is a much more reasoned and intelligent prediction than 14 is.

[Old#5fan]

LOL...Revising things? Did I not say in the post that you quoted that you are listening to what 1 or 2 people said? You really need to read.
30 homers is a much more reasoned and intelligent prediction than 14 is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonTribe
I haven't seen anyone project him to hit 40 HRs on the board. Projecting him to hit 12 is about as absurd. He could hit .250 though, but it would be a very solid .250. That's the problem, you don't realize that a .250 BA could be good.

There was a thread that had people posting best case scenarios for players. In that thread, I posted I thought the best case for Scott would be 40 HRs / 120 RBIs.

I think realistically he's a 25 / 85 guy, but there have been plenty of players just like Luke Scott who have busted out for 40 HR seasons. I also think that a .250 / 12 HR season is possible, but that's a worst case scenario and its no more probable than a 40 / 120 season.__________________

[NewMarketSean]

And you seem to like to revise things in your favor. I would stake my life that there was at least one poster blathering about 40 homers.

And that was just one person. Not the entire board. Why don't you do a little digging and get it right.

The reason I state this is it wasn't merely my imagination. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw it in astonishment. I recall posting that there was no way that was going to happen and the whole Luke Scott argument took off from there. There were also plenty of posters spouting 30 or more. I know that as well. I think even NewMarketSean thought as much and Drungo.

If you're gonna say I said something, Drungo too, you better sure as hell back it up with something instead of lobbing your speculation around here and passing it off like it's fact.

The funny thing though is once I started posting lower teens as my prediction some of these other people's grossly inflated homer numbers started coming down.

No, maybe they actually watched Luke Scott play, which is something you never did before forming your opinion on him, and realized that the power may not be there. funny thing is, once you saw him play, and admitted you were wrong (in a half-azzed way) about him having trouble adjusting to the AL, you said the same thing.

I stand by that take as it is what occurred as I recall it. I think even BaltimoreTerp may have been predicting 30 plus homers. There was a slew of posters until I rebutted with my low teen predictions and then they started lowering their predictions albeit still in the 20-25 range.

I guess if I have to, I will try to pull up the original Luke Scott threads.

Maybe you should. Because all you're doing is making yourself look more and more stupid.

[Old#5fan]

Annual moment of insanity!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Every year I put on my orange collored glasses and convince myself this is the year the O's comeback. I work out in my mind what it will take for the O's to be good and try to convince myself that it MIGHT happen. Well here goes this seasons version.

2B - Roberts 307/395/495 55 SB, 18 HRs This is his career year, possible

CF Jones 305/360/505 22HRs Becames one of the most talked about young players in baseball.

RF Nick 318/385/575 32HRs 118 RBI 15SB, Becomes unquestioned super star.

LF Luke Scott 295/395/540 36 HRs Scott makes the astros look really dumb proving that he is a very good everyday player.


Here is another.

[Old#5fan]

Posted by a "Rooter" on the why is everyone excited about Luke Scott thread.

"So in the Tejada trade we got a guy who will likely perform the same as Tejada cheap for four years... plus four other guys.

Great trade!"


He's stating Scott will match Tejada, and I am not singling him out as he wasn't the only one either! There was another poster named "Bluedog" espousing the same thing!

[NewMarketSean]

Posted by a "Rooter" on the why is everyone excited about Luke Scott thread.

"So in the Tejada trade we got a guy who will likely perform the same as Tejada cheap for four years... plus four other guys.

Great trade!"


He's stating Scott will match Tejada, and I am not singling him out as he wasn't the only one either! There was another poster named "Bluedog" espousing the same thing!

These are very weak examples.

You don't think Scott will match Tejada's .799 OPS from last year? Scott already has a .878 OPS, so he's filling those shoes plus some. Not that you would care about those numbers, because you'd rather see things through your own twisted version of reality rather than pay attention to stats and facts.

[Sports Guy]

Posted by a "Rooter" on the why is everyone excited about Luke Scott thread.

"So in the Tejada trade we got a guy who will likely perform the same as Tejada cheap for four years... plus four other guys.

Great trade!"


He's stating Scott will match Tejada, and I am not singling him out as he wasn't the only one either! There was another poster named "Bluedog" espousing the same thing!

It is highly likely that he will match the production Tejada gave us last year.

So far, you have provided one example of someone predicting over 35 homers and that is the whole board?

You are absurd...Most people felt he would be around 25, you just chose to run with one or two extreme predictions and make it seem like the whole board felt that way.

There will always be people who think someone outrageous...You are normally that person.

[Old#5fan]

It is highly likely that he will match the production Tejada gave us last year.

So far, you have provided one example of someone predicting over 35 homers and that is the whole board?

You are absurd...Most people felt he would be around 25, you just chose to run with one or two extreme predictions and make it seem like the whole board felt that way.

There will always be people who think someone outrageous...You are normally that person.

Unless Tejada gets injured there is no way on this planet that Luke Scott will hit more homers this season than Tejada. No way, no how. He probably will hit more doubles though, but that is not the same as homers. Doubles are not the sign of a power hitter like some were proclaiming Scott (incorrectly) to be based on a very small sample size from last year in limited at bats where he hit 18 homers, a total abberation. Brian Roberts hits a lot of doubles and is certainly not a power hitter. Scott is just a pure hitter. He is not going to come close to matching Tejada though in home runs. Not now, not ever! I do like his hitting tremendously though. However, the point I am making here is his prior statistics are utterly meaningless at predicting his home run totals in the future. Scott isn't any more of a home run hitter than Millar or Huff. You can tell that by merely watching him hit.

[Sports Guy]

Unless Tejada gets injured there is no way on this planet that Luke Scott will hit more homers this season than Tejada. No way, no how.

Are you aware that Scott hit as many homers as Tejada did last year and that Scott did it in like 150 less at bats????

BTW, how many homers a guy hits isn't a measure of who was the more productive player although I know you think that.

[NewMarketSean]

Unless Tejada gets injured there is no way on this planet that Luke Scott will hit more homers this season than Tejada. No way, no how. He probably will hit more doubles though, but that is not the same as homers. Doubles are not the sign of a power hitter like some were proclaiming Scott (incorrectly) to be based on a very small sample size from last year in limited at bats where he hit 18 homers, a total abberation. Brian Roberts hits a lot of doubles and is certainly not a power hitter. Scott is just a pure hitter. He is not going to come close to matching Tejada though in home runs. Not now, not ever! I do like his hitting tremendously though. However, the point I am making here is his prior statistics are utterly meaningless at predicting his home run totals in the future. Scott isn't any more of a home run hitter than Millar or Huff. You can tell that by merely watching him hit.

HR's are baseball card stats. Tony Batista had 32 HR's in 2004 and an OBP of .272. That's awful. Luke Scott is already out performing Tejada, and now that Tejada is 2 years older than we thought, and 3 years older than Luke Scott, you're not going to see much difference between the two, if any, from here on out.

[ScottieBaseball]

Okay. I take my lumps. I didn't do a research trail of facts because I mistakenly thought Sports Guy who posts a lot (maybe even more than I) would know what the general consensus of Scott homer predictions were on the board prior to the start of the season. My bad.

My point was that your statement that any semblance of a consensus here attributed to one or a group of posters that Luke Scott is going to hit 30+ homeruns was incorrect. Maybe someone may have said it would be absolute best-case scenario, but I don't remember it. The way to affirm it? Provide a link.

I don't want to discourage you from contributing. I respect the hell out of you and I think you bring a necessary, admirable element to our community. I know sometimes you really don't care what other people think, but that attitude (along with the attitudes of several others) are often detrimental to the quality of the discussions that take place here.

I know you're far from a "stat-head". I'm slowly but surely acknowledging their increased relevance, but I still give a great deal of creedence to the intangibles and gut feelings. I've come to accept, though, that statistics are an absolute analysis of things that occured in the past and a fairly reliable indicator of things that will happen in the future. I think if you were more open to that ideal (vice-versa for the stat-heads), the quality of discussion would go through the roof here.

/end hijack of thread

[Old#5fan]

Are you aware that Scott hit as many homers as Tejada did last year and that Scott did it in like 150 less at bats????

BTW, how many homers a guy hits isn't a measure of who was the more productive player although I know you think that.

Yes, of course I am. I have posted many times even on this thread that what he did last year means nothing as far as this year. I think maybe last year he was possibly swinging for the fences and trying to hit home runs, whereas this year he is more comfortable knowing he will be playing regularly and is just stroking the ball like a solid all around hitter. I much prefer him as he is hitting now than hitting 250 with 30 homers.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, of course I am. I have posted many times even on this thread that what he did last year means nothing as far as this year. I think maybe last year he was possibly swinging for the fences and trying to hit home runs, whereas this year he is more comfortable knowing he will be playing regularly and is just stroking the ball like a solid all around hitter. I much prefer him as he is hitting now than hitting 250 with 30 homers.

His entire career he has shown a lot of power..He isn't doing anything different this year.