+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 15 of 27
05-04-2008 02:07 AM #1
How would everyone like to see our draft go?
Would everyone rather see the O's draft mostly position players or pitchers? Also would everyone rather see college players drafted or high school players?
For me, I would like to see mostly positional players taken few pitchers here and there. I would like for most of the picks to be college players with high school players be taken later on in the draft.
05-04-2008 02:11 AM #2
Best. Available. Talent.
05-04-2008 02:53 AM #3
05-04-2008 03:38 AM #4Norfolk
- Join Date
- Feb 2008
C'mon guys, that's the easy way out. Rather than just stating "best player available", maybe give the guy your opinion of the way you'd list the draftees in the order of BPA.
BigLeagues23, because I'm more than happy with the collection of arms we have in the organization, if a good bat is there for the taking at 4 (Alvarez or T. Beckham to be specific), I'd take them over Matusz or Crow. Yes, maybe they might turn out to be aces, but with our talented pitching corp, I'm willing to take a flier on big bats who can provide help in Baltimore, where there's lack of power.
Here's how I'd rate my wishlist
2) T. Beckham
05-04-2008 09:09 AM #5
Unless T. Beckham or Hosmer's bats are rated significantly better than Alvarez or Smoak, or even G. Beckham, I'd prefer to go with the top college bat on the board with the first pick. If there's still a highly rated college bat available with the 2nd pick, I think I'd go that way again. After that it's tough to say.
05-04-2008 10:31 AM #6Plus Member since 03/04
- Join Date
- Sep 2003
It starts with who is going to be gone. That would be T. Beckham and Alvarez in my opinion. Don't want a pitcher, so I would love to see them draft one of the college guys like RZNJ, Smoak or Beckham. Either one gives us a good bat at a position we need. I am hopeful Beckham will be an average ML SS defensively.
05-04-2008 10:35 AM #7
There are a few talents out there that are great and I'd love to have, but at this point of the rebuilding we need talent at all levels, so I am completely fine with whoever we take, the only thing we can't do is get a total flop.
05-04-2008 10:50 AM #8
My personal four would look like this (taking the best of what is left):
1. Alvarez, 3b (Vanderbilt)
2. T. Beckham, SS (Griffin HS)
3. Matusz, SP (San Diego)
4. Smoak, 1b (South Carolina)
I have concerns with G. Bekcham's swing, Posey and Hosmer are even with Smoak on my board. Posey gets dinged (because of Wieters last year) and Hosmer gets dinged for costing more to sign than Smoak and requiring an extra 1.5-2.5 years of developmental time.
I'd rather give Smoak $4mio and have a return in 2010 than give $5mio to Hosmer and get potentially an extra 5 HR a year starting 2012.
05-04-2008 10:53 AM #9
2. T. Beckham
5. G. Beckham
05-04-2008 11:10 AM #10Plus Member since 03/04
- Join Date
- Sep 2003
I know you have an issue with G. Beckham's swing, but there is no doubt that he is having a phenomonal year, coming off a good Cape Cod season where he lead the CC league in homers.
Beckham is now at:
.418/.532/.876/1.408 with 21 HRs and a 17K / 36 BB. I have read your thoughts on his swing, but I have watched him this spring and think that he will not bust. Smoak would be a great pick, so would Beckham.
05-04-2008 11:18 AM #11
My thoughts have always been this; the following is an example of what I'll be referring to...
Tim Beckham; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 92
Brian Matusz; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 92
Pedro Alvarez; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 91
Justin Smoak; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 90
Eric Hosmer; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 90
Aaron Crow; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 90
Gordon Beckham; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 89
Buster Posey; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 89
The Orioles (Joe Jordan in particular) pick fourth, and let's say that the draft goes like this:
1. TB- Tim Beckham
2. Pit- Pedro Alvarez
3. KC- Brian Matusz
The Orioles Top 3 rated players would then be off the board... that leaves Smoak, Hosmer and Crow all with the same Overall Score (90) or value in the Orioles eyes. The score only takes into considerationtheir projected future worth as a ML player, so being a collegian may pose an advantage, as it is generally true that being the more advanced player that they would get to the big leagues a bit quicker (2 years roughly being a fair rule of thumb). So, using that as a factor, it would come down most lkely to Smoak and Crow, and with both college players, it would then likely be a matter of $ (Crow is a Boras guy) and organizational need. Smoak may sign for a bit less, and fills a more pressing need. For argument's sake, lets throw out the financial factor... therfore- in the matter of a tie, Smoak would get the nd, as the Orioles are in more need of the positional prospect than the pitcher.
This of course is just one example of how this could play out, and the likelihood that players are exactly and evenly ranked is ceratinly up or debate.
I guess my point is that it depends on how the Orioles rank hese guys... but I imagine that Jordan will take the highest ated player on his board.
For me personally, and with all things being equal, it would be nice to get a bat like Smoak, Alvarez or Hosmer, or even a future SS in Tim Beckham, or even GBeck if the scouts are convinced he's going to be a very good ML SS.
05-04-2008 11:36 AM #12
Any sort of length in a swing just troubles me. His bat is so quick that I think he gets away with his hitch without much trouble. I'd be surprised if there are many, if any, college pitchers that could exploit the hitch -- his swing is too quick. However, wood bat plus increased velocity and command (generally) as he rises through the MiL and I think he hits a wall.
In the interest of fair disclosure, I had/have the same concerns with Todd Frazier (Rutgers SS) selected by CIN last year in the supplemental round. His stats to date?
2007 (Billings (Rk)) 160 AB, 6 2b, 5 3b, 7 HR, 26 SO, 20 BB, .319/.405/.538/.943
(Dayton (LoA)) 22 AB, 3 2b, 0 3b, 2 HR, 4 SO, 2 BB, .318/.375/.727/1.102
2008 (Dayton (LoA)) 101 AB, 10 2b, 0 3b, 7 HR, 26 SO, 14 BB, .307/.391/.614/1.005
Stats last year for Rutgers:
247 AB, 24 2b, 2 3b, 22 HR, 51 SO, 62 BB, .377/.502/.757/1.259
G-Bex this year:
177 AB, 16 2b, 1 3b, 21 HR, 17 SO, 36 BB, .418/.532/.876/1.408
Obviously, Beckham is the better overall prospect. Compare, however, what Frazier is doing in LoA (which is fine) with what Wieters is doing in HiA. Frazier had far superior 2007 college numbers to Wieters, but was not selected in the first 30 picks. Wieters projected as the better prospect for a myriad of reasons, including swing mechanics and raw power. True, you can't deny how impressive G-Bex has been, but at a certain point you have to look past the stats.
I see Beckham falling somewhere between Wieters and Frazier (probably a 10-15 pick, talent-wise). I think he'll actually go 6-10. I want very little doubt in a top-5 pick, and I think there are safer picks with equal upside to G-Bex.
Sorry to play the broken record again.
05-04-2008 11:58 AM #13Plus Member since 03/04
- Join Date
- Sep 2003
05-04-2008 03:06 PM #14
How would everyone like our later round strategy to be say we do get our top choice with our first pick? And how much do you think it really effects our later round picks if we do get our top choice or does not have an effect at all?
05-04-2008 03:14 PM #15