Of course they were, he hasn't even played two full seasons anywhere else. Give him time as an Oriole instead of whisking him away as you seem to espouse and I predict his best years will be in the Orange and Black. Unlike you, I could care less about what he did in the past. The guy is hitting now better than he ever has. He has broken the pattern of the slow starts and he is now a consistent year long hitter. Of course there is an argument to trade him at his peak value, but there is an equal argument to retain him.Originally Posted by Sports Guy
Last edited by Old#5fan; 07-09-2008 at 09:13 AM.
If I was the GM I would be trying to extend him right now. Even if you wind up trading him it wouldn't hurt to try to get him signed. As far a DC, there are now five guys worse than him in walking batters. Before there were none. To me that is a big improvement. His career stats would have predicted that how? I will tell you how, they wouldn't!
Last edited by Old#5fan; 07-09-2008 at 09:15 AM.
No it's not. He has a whopping 6 less walks than the league leader. It's improvement...it's not BIG improvement.
How long and for how much money would you be offering Huff? He is making 8 million this year and next, so you will have to put more on the table than that.
Well, how about his ERA? It has also improved and going by his past there would be no reason to expect it. All I am trying to point out is that the future performance good or bad of any player is not predictable period. There is nobody on this board or on earth who can predict accurately what Aubrey Huff will do next year. In fact, I doubt if anyone can predict if he will do better or worse next year than this year, other than to guess. Same with Cabrera. He could be terrible next year or win the Cy Young, nobody knows. Huff could revert back to his mediocre Tampa years or hit like he is now. Nobody on earth knows what is going to happen. If they did, this game would be boring. So my guess that Huff will be as good next year is no less believeable than anyone guessing he won't.
Last edited by Old#5fan; 07-09-2008 at 09:20 AM.
There is nothing wrong with trading Huff if you can get an important piece for the future. That is probably the right way to go. If you can't, you don't. I think it is that simple.
BRob is similar, but I'd need more than just one piece unless that piece was ML ready and likely to be an All Star.
I can see why you're upset if you believe we don't want to trade these guys. I don't think that is the case. I think we believe their present and future value to us is higher than the future value of what we can get in trade, because we've discussed trades with multiple teams and we aren't happy with the suggested return. That isn't necessarily a poor position. I didn't like the proposed Cubs trade in March and I still don't. There just isn't enough value above replacement level amongst the positional prospects they wanted to send to us.
I do agree that you either need to trade BRob and Huff OR extend them. Just picks aren't good enough. I'd be willing to extend BRob now for 3-4 years. I wouldn't be willing to extend Huff at this moment.
Your point is completely wrong...First of all, his ERA is right around where it was in his first full season up here...So, there is all the reason to believe he could do that.
Secondly, as I said, you are still talking about a pitcher in his peak/prime years...His ability to improve is very reasonable within those years.
Your problem is you are so close minded to stats and really have no idea how to analyze them.
A lot of this argument sounds like the Scott argument...You would think you would have learned by now but I guess not.
I don't know, I am not a GM. However, I would average out his two seasons and compare his stats to other comparable major league DH's and offer him something in line. It isn't rocket science, just make him a fair offer. If he takes it fine, if not move on.
Of course you can't trade them if you don't get enough back...But, how much is enough? Are you being realistic? That's the problem.There is nothing wrong with trading Huff if you can get an important piece for the future. That is probably the right way to go. If you can't, you don't. I think it is that simple.
BRob is similar, but I'd need more than just one piece unless that piece was ML ready and likely to be an All Star.
Yea, extending Huff would be a terrible idea.I do agree that you either need to trade BRob and Huff OR extend them. Just picks aren't good enough. I'd be willing to extend BRob now for 3-4 years. I wouldn't be willing to extend Huff at this moment.
I wouldn't give BRob that contract unless we ripped up next year's contract and got him to sign for 3 years with a 4th year option.
However, if you are BRob and this is your last chance at huge money, aren't you signing for 4-5 years on top of what you already have and requesting 10+ million a year?
Do you want to give him that contract?
I generally agree with this.
IMO, our biggest needs going into this offseason will be as follows :
1. Dependable starting pitcher (However, I'm very bearish on Burnett)
2. Shortstop
3. First base
4. Organizational positional talent
5. Middle relief
While I would prefer to trade Sherrill (b/c I think his value will never be higher), I guess I can understand keeping him at the moment. He's not even arb. eligible and he has been effective for the most part.
Huff is a different story. I appreciate what the man has done this season, he has honestly been the "pleasantest" of surprises. His current value and the rise of Reimold seem to create a bit of a perfect storm for a deal. Now, I don't know how much demand there is for him - I'm not fielding offers. But I would certainly be interested in moving him.
I would be elated to dump Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton on anyone who'd be willing to split their salaries.
It feels a little like we're betting the house on Teixeira, but I have to believe that is just the nature of BB's post. I cannot imagine MacPhail doesn't have contingency plans lined up, and I doubt that Kevin Millar is one of them.
When Reimold and Wieters are promoted, our MiL positional depth will be essentially null. That is and will be a glaring problem going forward, and something that requires addressing.
Using your own logic, how do you know Huff isn't smack in the middle of his "peak or prime years? I can tell you this much, you don't. Furthermore, if stats are so reliable in predicting the future, explain the Eric Byrnes situation as to how he went from hitting like Freddie Bynum as an Oriole to becoming a NL all-star the very next season? I bet those stats sure didn't predict that now did they? If so, the Orioles would have held onto him.
Last edited by Old#5fan; 07-09-2008 at 09:32 AM.
His ERA that deviates roughly 10% from his career ERA?
It still improved didn't it? If stats are so useful, what will he do next season? Will his ERA be the same, improve 10% again, or regress 10%? Nobody knows, and stats are worthless to use like that. AGain, look at Eric Brynes. His stats as an Oriole were even worse than the guy they traded for him (Larry Bigbie) yet Bigbie gets demoted to the minors the next season and Brynes is a NL allstar. Splain that one Lucy?
This is my last comment. Stats do not predict future performance 100%. But, if you have some aptitude, you can apply some logic to stats - among other factors - to predict (again, not 100%) future performance. Like any statistical process, there are outliers to the predicted data. If your mind isn't able to accept this, I suggest you ignore the mathematical process of statistical analysis all together. No one is saying there aren't outliers. No one.It still improved didn't it? If stats are so useful, what will he do next season? Will his ERA be the same, improve 10% again, or regress 10%? Nobody knows, and stats are worthless to use like that. AGain, look at Eric Brynes. His stats as an Oriole were even worse than the guy they traded for him (Larry Bigbie) yet Bigbie gets demoted to the minors the next season and Brynes is a NL allstar. Splain that one Lucy?
My insider source at OH tells me that the direction this thread has gone in will disappoint most fans.
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