Your official 2008 top 30 Prospect list

[Tony-OH]

Ok, this season we are going back to a Top 50 prospects list but we wanted to see your official top 30 list as well (you can do 50 if you like).

You can then match your list up against our eventual list (which will start being announced on October 1st) and see if you agree.

Some questions to ask yourself:
How far does Spoone drop because of the injury?
Do you go with AA success (Bergesen) over stuff and youth (Erbe)?
Where do 2008 draftees like Avery, Hoes, Hudson, Miclat, Zagone,, Joseph, Drake, and Bundy go on the list? Do they go on the list for you?
Arrieta over Tillman or the other way around?
If you don't put David Hernandez in your top 10, will Orioles28 berate you with twenty posts explaining why you are so, so wrong?
How high should Henson be ranked this year, and should Adams be ranked higher?

Just some food for thought.... Have fun with this and be ready to vote when we start announcing the players. This year we are going to go 1-30 instead of counting down to number one from ten and then up from 11 since it's pretty obvious who the number one prospect will be this year.

But who will be number two? Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, or mystery prospect?

[Sailor Jerry]

But who will be number two?

Richie Paz

[bird watcher]

Ok, this season we are going back to a Top 50 prospects list but we wanted to see your official top 30 list as well (you can do 50 if you like).

You can then match your list up against our eventual list (which will start being announced on October 1st) and see if you agree.

Some questions to ask yourself:
How far does Spoone drop because of the injury?
Do you go with AA success (Bergesen) over stuff and youth (Erbe)?
Where do 2008 draftees like Avery, Hoes, Hudson, Miclat, Zagone,, Joseph, Drake, and Bundy go on the list? Do they go on the list for you?
Arrieta over Tillman or the other way around?
If you don't put David Hernandez in your top 10, will Orioles28 berate you with twenty posts explaining why you are so, so wrong?
How high should Henson be ranked this year, and should Adams be ranked higher?

Just some food for thought.... Have fun with this and be ready to vote when we start announcing the players. This year we are going to go 1-30 instead of counting down to number one from ten and then up from 11 since it's pretty obvious who the number one prospect will be this year.

But who will be number two? Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, or mystery prospect?

Does Montanez qualify for the list?

Better yet: Can you give us names of any players that no longer qualify due to call ups ie. Liz, Salazar, Mickolio, Montanez, etc.?

[ScottieBaseball]

Another question: How will Ryan Adams' defensive struggles affect his placement in your top prospect list?

[Frobby]

When do you plan to start the OH countdown, Tony?

Personally, I'd like to see what happens in the AFL. In the past, I think OH underrated Adam Loewen (2005 list) and Jake Arrieta (2007 list) because their AFL performances weren't known when the lists were made up. My opinions on Matusz, Reimold and Snyder could vary a good bit depending on what they do in the AFL.

That said, I'd be pretty surprised if the top 11 didn't consist of Wieters, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Reimold, Snyder, Erbe, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton and Rowell. Not necessarily in that order, but I think there's a pretty firm dividing line between them and the next level. It will be interesting to see which one from that group is "voted off the island," so to speak. Just my opinion, but as promising as Spoone was last year, you can't justify giving a top 10 spot to a guy who pitched sparingly this year and will be coming off labrum surgery. We have no idea what he'll be like when he returns.

[Tony-OH]

When do you plan to start the OH countdown, Tony?

Personally, I'd like to see what happens in the AFL. In the past, I think OH underrated Adam Loewen (2005 list) and Jake Arrieta (2007 list) because their AFL performances weren't known when the lists were made up. My opinions on Matusz, Reimold and Snyder could vary a good bit depending on what they do in the AFL.

That said, I'd be pretty surprised if the top 11 didn't consist of Wieters, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Reimold, Snyder, Erbe, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton and Rowell. Not necessarily in that order, but I think there's a pretty firm dividing line between them and the next level. It will be interesting to see which one from that group is "voted off the island," so to speak. Just my opinion, but as promising as Spoone was last year, you can't justify giving a top 10 spot to a guy who pitched sparingly this year and will be coming off labrum surgery. We have no idea what he'll be like when he returns.

We'll start announcing the list on October 1st. I know what you are saying about waiting until the AFL and HWL is over, but really our list has always been at the end of the 2008 season which to me ends when their playoffs end. We may do a top 25 or 30 after spring training training next year, but we'll have to see.

The key to the placement of players is what will the players eventually become in the major leagues offset by his potential to reach that ceiling. Spoone has a very high season but due to the injury his likelyhood of reaching that ceiling has diminished a bit or at the very least, been delayed.

I once dropped Bedard down because of TJ surgery and in retrospect I should have kept him higher because of his overall potential.

Ceilings and production to me weigh more on our rankings then anything else but we obviously take into consideration the injury factor.

I've already put together a preliminary list of the top 50 guys and I'm currently going through my investigation into each player before making the final list. Once I make my phone calls, look over all the stats and my own notes taken throughout the year, I'll be ready to make the final list.

It's nice to be able to go 50 deep and still think you may have left off guys with major league ability.

[Sports Guy]

We'll start announcing the list on October 1st. I know what you are saying about waiting until the AFL and HWL is over, but really our list has always been at the end of the 2008 season which to me ends when their playoffs end. We may do a top 25 or 30 after spring training training next year, but we'll have to see.

The key to the placement of players is what will the players eventually become in the major leagues offset by his potential to reach that ceiling. Spoone has a very high season but due to the injury his likelyhood of reaching that ceiling has diminished a bit or at the very least, been delayed.

I once dropped Bedard down because of TJ surgery and in retrospect I should have kept him higher because of his overall potential.

Ceilings and production to me weigh more on our rankings then anything else but we obviously take into consideration the injury factor.

I've already put together a preliminary list of the top 50 guys and I'm currently going through my investigation into each player before making the final list. Once I make my phone calls, look over all the stats and my own notes taken throughout the year, I'll be ready to make the final list.

It's nice to be able to go 50 deep and still think you may have left off guys with major league ability.

Yea...I expect you to have Spoone high since you really like his upside. You won't have him as high as you probably would have but still, i think he will be in the top 12.

[hoosiers]

I'll give it a go. If you want, you can assume guys are listed in order, but I think it's more appropriate to try to group guys of relatively similar prospect status together. I'll admit off the top about a lack of knowledge regarding international signings like Rachenko, Ricardo, Rosa and Polanco (and others) and I do not know exactly which prospects have graduated from this list - I assume Olson, Liz, Montanez have graudated at least.

Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta
Erbe, Rowell, Snyder, Reimold
Bergesen, Britton, Patton
DHernandez, Spoone, Avery, Hoes, Bundy, Berken, Henson
Mickolio, Davis, Angle, Adams, Kolodny, Butler, Miclat, Hudson
Rosa, Bascom, Hoey, Moore

Other names considered - Zagone, Joseph, Dashenko, Polanco, McCrory

Kudos to Joe Jordan and AM. This is easily our best and deepest list that I can recall.

[Greg Pappas]

Tony,

As was requested above: Can we get a list a some of those guys that the Hangout will not consider for the list? Liz, Olson, Montanez, Patton, etc...

Also, what is the criteria for deciding? Is it MLB's rules on rookie status?

Thanks

[Frobby]

We'll start announcing the list on October 1st. I know what you are saying about waiting until the AFL and HWL is over, but really our list has always been at the end of the 2008 season which to me ends when their playoffs end. We may do a top 25 or 30 after spring training training next year, but we'll have to see.

The key to the placement of players is what will the players eventually become in the major leagues offset by his potential to reach that ceiling. Spoone has a very high season but due to the injury his likelyhood of reaching that ceiling has diminished a bit or at the very least, been delayed.

I once dropped Bedard down because of TJ surgery and in retrospect I should have kept him higher because of his overall potential.

Ceilings and production to me weigh more on our rankings then anything else but we obviously take into consideration the injury factor.

I've already put together a preliminary list of the top 50 guys and I'm currently going through my investigation into each player before making the final list. Once I make my phone calls, look over all the stats and my own notes taken throughout the year, I'll be ready to make the final list.

It's nice to be able to go 50 deep and still think you may have left off guys with major league ability.

Dont get me wrong - the OH list is probably the highlight of the year on this site, and selfishly I'm glad you start doing it in October instead of waiting for the AFL/HWL.

If I understand your philosophy about injuries correctly, it will be interesting to see where you put Spoone and Patton. I'm betting you still have Spoone at 5 or 6, with Patton right on the fringe of the top 10. But personally, I'd take them both out of the top 10 because labrum injuries are difficult to overcome. I hear what you said about Bedard, but TJ surgery is much easier to overcome than labrum surgery from everything I hear.

I'm glad, and a bit surprised, to hear you think we might more than 50 guys who have major league ability. I'll be happy to stop at 30.

[tywright]

1) Matt Wieters, C
2) Chris Tillman, SP
3) Brian Matusz, SP
4) Jake Arrieta, SP
5) Nolan Reimold, OF
6) Brandon Snyder, 1B
7) Brandon Erbe, SP
8) Brad Bergesen, SP
9) David Hernandez, SP
10) Zach Britton, SP
11) Chorye Spoone, SP
12) Billy Rowell, 3B
13) Ryan Adams, 2B
14) LJ Hoes, 2B
15) Troy Patton, SP
16) Xavier Avery, OF
17) Tyler Henson, SS/3B
18) Luis Noel, SP
19) Greg Miclat, SS
20) Tyler Kolodny, 3B
21) Tony Butler, SP
22) Garabez Rosa, SS
23) Blake Davis, 2B/SS
24) Kam Mickolio, RP
25) Hayden Penn, SP
26) Robert Bundy, SP
27) Pedro Beato, SP
28) Rich Zagone, P
29) Caleb Joseph, C
30) Justin Moore, SP
31) Mike Costanzo, 3B
32) Jason Berken, SP
33) Matt Angle, OF
34) Scott Moore, 3B
35) Tim Bascom, SP

[Frobby]

I'll give it a go. If you want, you can assume guys are listed in order, but I think it's more appropriate to try to group guys of relatively similar prospect status together. I'll admit off the top about a lack of knowledge regarding international signings like Rachenko, Ricardo, Rosa and Polanco (and others) and I do not know exactly which prospects have graduated from this list - I assume Olson, Liz, Montanez have graudated at least.

Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta
Erbe, Rowell, Snyder, Reimold
Bergesen, Britton, Patton
DHernandez, Spoone, Avery, Hoes, Bundy, Berken, Henson
Mickolio, Davis, Angle, Adams, Kolodny, Butler, Miclat, Hudson
Rosa, Bascom, Hoey, Moore

Other names considered - Zagone, Joseph, Dashenko, Polanco, McCrory

Kudos to Joe Jordan and AM. This is easily our best and deepest list that I can recall.

You are not kidding - that's a vastly superior list than last year's, which itself was much better than in previous years. I could nitpick your groupings a little, but they're pretty good.

Noticeably missing - Pedro Beato. Ouch! From top 10 to off the list.

[hoosiers]

You are not kidding - that's a vastly superior list than last year's, which itself was much better than in previous years. I could nitpick your groupings a little, but they're pretty good.

Noticeably missing - Pedro Beato. Ouch! From top 10 to off the list.

The Beato ship has sailed for me. I thought he was an excellent pick, but he has shown very little, IMO.

BTW, the Moore I listed is Justin Moore, HS pitcher from the 2007 draft - not Scott Moore.

[Enjoy Terror]

1) Matt Wieters, C
2) Chris Tillman, SP
3) Brian Matusz, SP
4) Jake Arrieta, SP
5) Nolan Reimold, OF
6) Brandon Snyder, 1B
7) Brandon Erbe, SP
8) Brad Bergesen, SP
9) David Hernandez, SP
10) Zach Britton, SP
11) Chorye Spoone, SP
12) Billy Rowell, 3B
13) Ryan Adams, 2B
14) LJ Hoes, 2B
15) Troy Patton, SP
16) Xavier Avery, OF
17) Tyler Henson, SS/3B
18) Luis Noel, SP
19) Greg Miclat, SS
20) Tyler Kolodny, 3B
21) Tony Butler, SP
22) Garabez Rosa, SS
23) Blake Davis, 2B/SS
24) Kam Mickolio, RP
25) Hayden Penn, SP
26) Robert Bundy, SP
27) Pedro Beato, SP
28) Rich Zagone, P
29) Caleb Joseph, C
30) Justin Moore, SP
31) Mike Costanzo, 3B
32) Jason Berken, SP
33) Matt Angle, OF
34) Scott Moore, 3B
35) Tim Bascom, SP

I really like your list a lot. It's very well put together. I think that Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo probably wouldn't make it onto my list, I don't even see them projecting to be great bench players at this point, given their struggles in AAA.

I think you have Berken too low. True that he is the oldest starting pitcher on the Bowie staff, but in all fairness 24 really isn't all that old, if that's the reason you have him ranked so low.

Xavier Avery is too high. I'm not thrilled about his K/BB ratio. To be honest, I'm actually in awe at how Hoes has progressed better than him.

Every time I hear about Billy Rowell, it's something negative; his attitude or his statistics. I don't know that I would rank him as highly as you have.

Of course this all strictly based on opinion, and you are entitled to yours. I'm just observing.

[Enjoy Terror]

He's a little old for Delmarva at 23, but I'm a Wally Crancer fan.