All things being equal in 2010

[ChaosLex]

Which of these prospects would you rather have? We're obviously going to be drafting high (if not #1), so there's a good chance both of these studs will be available?

[BaltBird 24]

Tough call, but I'm a sucker for big power pitchers.....

[ChaosLex]

Tough call, but I'm a sucker for big power pitchers.....

Me too.

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[mwmd80]

Harper is a good prospect but overhyped to a major degree. There are a lot of holes in his swing and in his recieving behind the plate. He is a real good looking kid for a 16 year old, but not the type of guy that the media is making him to be.

[allstar1579]

Too early to tell, but I think it's none of the above by the time the draft rolls around. Either we'll learn enough about Harper from his playing in JUCO, or some of the other guys will make it more clear.

[QBsILLEST1]

I want Pomeranz! In all honesty though, it depends on how Harper performs in JuCo. If he does well, then I think I lean toward him even though I too am a sucker for big power pitchers. I like Renaudo and Pomeranz, and Osrich(sp?) is pretty nasty too, but I dont know if hes gonna stick. What is awesome is that there is some good high ceiling safe college arms at the top half of 2010's draft.

[QBsILLEST1]

Too early to tell, but I think it's none of the above by the time the draft rolls around. Either we'll learn enough about Harper from his playing in JUCO, or some of the other guys will make it more clear.

Very true. Last year at this time people were mad because we wouldnt have a shot at drafting Alex White or Grant Green with the 5th pick. haha my o my have things changed!

There are some really exciting kids to watch this year in college. I still am gonna monitor Bryce Brentz closely to see if he can continue hitting like he did in 09....

[S'GOS]

Harper is a good prospect but overhyped to a major degree. There are a lot of holes in his swing and in his recieving behind the plate. He is a real good looking kid for a 16 year old, but not the type of guy that the media is making him to be.

He apparently owns a HUGE ego as well. Very rude, self centered, etc. I used to work for a showcase company that dealt with him. Lots of stories. Not sure he's the type of attitude we'd want in the system

[better]

Harper's got a long way to go and is far from a sure thing IMO. Signability and projectability are red flags here, for me.

Whereas college pitcher Ranaudo can help solidify our pitching core rather sooner than later.

[Stotle]

Too early to tell, but I think it's none of the above by the time the draft rolls around. Either we'll learn enough about Harper from his playing in JUCO, or some of the other guys will make it more clear.

I disagree that how he (as a HS junior) performs against JUCO competition (which is uneven at best) will be a huge indicator. I think teams will look at his mechanics, but his numbers won't be a huge measure unless they are uncomfortably poor.

[Stotle]

Very true. Last year at this time people were mad because we wouldnt have a shot at drafting Alex White or Grant Green with the 5th pick. haha my o my have things changed!

There are some really exciting kids to watch this year in college. I still am gonna monitor Bryce Brentz closely to see if he can continue hitting like he did in 09....

Keep in mind his extreme hitters park at MTSU.

[Stotle]

Harper is a good prospect but overhyped to a major degree. There are a lot of holes in his swing and in his recieving behind the plate. He is a real good looking kid for a 16 year old, but not the type of guy that the media is making him to be.

He may be over-hyped but he certainly isn't overrated. The arm and raw power alone would make him a top HS OF draft-eligible prospect. I agree his receiving is a bit stiff, which is amplified by his growing size. But he moves incredibly well behind the plate -- like above-average to plus side-to-side and blocking. He fields his position extremely well and even with a longish arm action in the back, his footwork and pure arm strength (with excellent accuracy) get him pop times well below any other draftee in the class.

Solid average footspeed too -- you can draft him as a catcher and be confident that, defensively, the worst that can happen is he gets shifted to RF where his bat easily plays. His swing got a little long towards the end of the summer, but his bat speed is excellent and as he tightens things up the holes will shrink considerably.

I understand the recoil on some of the hype the media has thrown at the fans, but I think people forget we are talking about a HS junior. He's a HS junior that is being compared to HS seniors up to college red shirt seniors, and has been competing against older competition his whole "showcase" career. Is he some man-child that will slug his way to the Majors in three years? No. But there isn't another potential draftee that matches his tool set, and there hasn't been in some time.

[QBsILLEST1]

He may be over-hyped but he certainly isn't overrated. The arm and raw power alone would make him a top HS OF draft-eligible prospect. I agree his receiving is a bit stiff, which is amplified by his growing size. But he moves incredibly well behind the plate -- like above-average to plus side-to-side and blocking. He fields his position extremely well and even with a longish arm action in the back, his footwork and pure arm strength (with excellent accuracy) get him pop times well below any other draftee in the class.

Solid average footspeed too -- you can draft him as a catcher and be confident that, defensively, the worst that can happen is he gets shifted to RF where his bat easily plays. His swing got a little long towards the end of the summer, but his bat speed is excellent and as he tightens things up the holes will shrink considerably.

I understand the recoil on some of the hype the media has thrown at the fans, but I think people forget we are talking about a HS junior. He's a HS junior that is being compared to HS seniors up to college red shirt seniors, and has been competing against older competition his whole "showcase" career. Is he some man-child that will slug his way to the Majors in three years? No. But there isn't another potential draftee that matches his tool set, and there hasn't been in some time.

Thats a really good way of putting it Stotle. As a #1 pick ,his situation is much different than that of Strasburg's from the 09 draft. He has an amazing tool set, and will take some time to get to the ML. Id love to have him, but I still wanna see him perform well during his JUCO season. At this point I am up in the air as to his ability to hit more advanced pitching. He can have a greta powerful swing, but if he cannot hit advanced pitching it doesnt matter. Though hes a solid bet to be the #1 pick, I see less questions in Taillon. I wonder how JJ looks at both of these guys.....

[Stotle]

Thats a really good way of putting it Stotle. As a #1 pick ,his situation is much different than that of Strasburg's from the 09 draft. He has an amazing tool set, and will take some time to get to the ML. Id love to have him, but I still wanna see him perform well during his JUCO season. At this point I am up in the air as to his ability to hit more advanced pitching. He can have a greta powerful swing, but if he cannot hit advanced pitching it doesnt matter. Though hes a solid bet to be the #1 pick, I see less questions in Taillon. I wonder how JJ looks at both of these guys.....

Honestly, my undervaluing of Gordan Beckham has caused me to give Harper a little benefit of the doubt when it comes to his swing. Beckham overcomes a longish swing, with some holes, primarily with good hand/eye coordination and superior bat speed. Harper has the bat speed and will likely get even stronger. I don't care too much about the stats at Southern Nevada, and think he'll do fairly well.

Ruminating on his swing some last night while on a conference call, I think it's reasonable to think some of that length came from the pressure of the attention he's getting. Maybe adding some distance in BP to his shots, but the negative effect is shrinking his margin of error in-game. Couple that with being overly-aggressive, trying to show you're "deserving" of the hype, and I think that could lead to the inconsistent contact. Defensively, he's still been pretty stellar, particularly from a catch-and-throw perspective.

[waroriole]

Strasburg got around 18M right? It seems Harper has a good shot at around 25-30 b/c he'll have more leverage due to his age. I don't know if he is worth 3 times what the other guy will get. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats passed on him after paying out a huge sum to Strasburg.