What do you prefer?

[QBsILLEST1]

This is sorta hypothetical, would you prefer the 2009 draft consisting of Hobgood, Givens, Townsend, Henry, Tolliver, Wrisch, Cowan, Martin, T.Berry, R. Berry, Coffey, Ohlman, Webb, Hoppy

or

a 2010 draft consisting of Jameson Taillon who may end up costing $6mm and then 2 premium overslotters like Coffey and Ohlman?


This was asked right after the draft, but in a different form. My opinion on it has actually changed since then. I now think that we should spend big on the 1st rounder IF he is worth the asking price, which in the 2010 draft, it looks like the top 3 or so picks and maybe even a few after that will be worth the asking price. My pick would be Taillon and then a couple of premium overslotters. One thing MacPhails loves is the idea of inventory, but OTOH when you come across a pitcher who is the total package and has a Strasburg-like ceiling, you gotta jump on that. More than likely, no one we drafted in the 2009 draft will end up as good as Taillon. Id rather get 1 legit #1 guy then a whole bunch of possible #2's and 3's.


And as another disclaimer, when I say that Taillon has Strasburg-like ceiling, I dont mean that he may end up throwing 102 MPH, he doesnt have to throw that hard to be as good as Strasburg. With an elite 4 pitch arsenal, being able to sit in the mid 90's and touch 97/98 MPH is good enough to accomplish the same thing, a #1 starter.

[waynebug]

I would prefer the pittsburg approach,taking a Hobgood. But get someone actually closer to being a top 3 talent than Hobgood was to being a top 5 talent. Baseball people are still mocking the Orioles for taking Hobgood. There had to be higher rated talent that would signed for the $2.4 Million Hobgood got.

Particularly if some of the money was used on international free agents. You can still get a tremendous player for less than a million in the latin market. The Braves got Teahan and Betancourt each for less than a Million.

[crawdad]

Right now, I'd say go slot and take on overslots. If Taillon emerges as a clear and definite option in light of all of the other available prospects . . . then you go with him. He is not there yet for me. He could be in June.

[Stotle]

The sheer number of solid HS arms leads me to believe it will be another class with more over-slot signings, due to the limited number of mid-1st to 2nd round slots, and the relatively large number of players that could boast that skill set.

Given that, I'd probably go the Hobgood approach, but not a Hobgood type player. I'd go closer the Sanchez approach and grab a slot college player -- could be an arm or a bat. I'll say Christian Colon would be my choice right now as a #3 that would sign below-slot and be a good bet to provide good ML value up-the-middle.

I'd look for HS arms and OFs over-slot, as well as draft eligible college sophomores such as Dixon Anderson (RHP, Cal) and Mark Canha (OF, Cal). If someone like Cox were to fall, I might pay a little extra to grab him, as well.

[Os_Watcher]

09 style, Hobgood and more than 10 overslotters

My thinking is this you have the third overall pick in the draft and your team is pretty bad, However, will one premium player really make the difference in 2-4 years time? Probably not is my thinking. I am no scout but I know Joe Jordan has a staff of them. I have to trust their judgment in this matter.

Truth is the team needs as much talent across the board signed and developed as best it can. I know the illusion of highly touted prospect sounds like alot of fun. However you also need to stack talent in the minors so your best talent isn't struggling with a poor supporting cast.

To me its a layered approach. At each organizational level you need good players pushing each other to succeed.

As far as Matt Hobgood only projecting to become a workhorse starting pitcher... I sure hope they are right! Can you imagine how much better the team might be if he does become that? I could care less if he never makes an all-star game. How about going out every start and giving the team 7 innings? Sounds like a good investment to me. We will know more in 2 years, but I like that strategy.

Point is as I type this out the Orioles are weak at 1st base, 3rd Base and Closer. They are thin at Starting Pitcher, Set Up and possibly Left Field. Last I looked every good team those were positions of strength.

Bottom line on my thinking and opinion is that you have far too many holes in far too many places to think one pick investment.

[srock]

Best talent at available.

Every pick.

Until the money runs out

[QBsILLEST1]

09 style, Hobgood and more than 10 overslotters

My thinking is this you have the third overall pick in the draft and your team is pretty bad, However, will one premium player really make the difference in 2-4 years time? Probably not is my thinking. I am no scout but I know Joe Jordan has a staff of them. I have to trust their judgment in this matter.

Truth is the team needs as much talent across the board signed and developed as best it can. I know the illusion of highly touted prospect sounds like alot of fun. However you also need to stack talent in the minors so your best talent isn't struggling with a poor supporting cast.

To me its a layered approach. At each organizational level you need good players pushing each other to succeed.

As far as Matt Hobgood only projecting to become a workhorse starting pitcher... I sure hope they are right! Can you imagine how much better the team might be if he does become that? I could care less if he never makes an all-star game. How about going out every start and giving the team 7 innings? Sounds like a good investment to me. We will know more in 2 years, but I like that strategy.

Point is as I type this out the Orioles are weak at 1st base, 3rd Base and Closer. They are thin at Starting Pitcher, Set Up and possibly Left Field. Last I looked every good team those were positions of strength.

Bottom line on my thinking and opinion is that you have far too many holes in far too many places to think one pick investment.

Well, IMO hes gonna be more than just an average innings eater, but you do nto have to subsitute ceiling of your 1st rounder to go overslot later on. I think it depends on what talent you have available to you as to what approach to take. If you have a total package type player available to you, I couldnt turn it down. But IMO even if we went big in the 1st round, we are gonna be more willing to go overslot later on because AM and JJ realize thats what Boston does and the only real way to start making up ground on them is to take advantage of our draft positioning. We already know they are gonna sign every overslot they can, so we need to do the same, but in order to make up ground, we need to get a premium 1st rounder as well. They dont have access to a top 3 pick, but we do, so IMO we are gonna start spending the money both ways because its been recognized that Boston is killing us in that department.

[RVAbird]

The sheer number of solid HS arms leads me to believe it will be another class with more over-slot signings, due to the limited number of mid-1st to 2nd round slots, and the relatively large number of players that could boast that skill set.

Given that, I'd probably go the Hobgood approach, but not a Hobgood type player. I'd go closer the Sanchez approach and grab a slot college player -- could be an arm or a bat. I'll say Christian Colon would be my choice right now as a #3 that would sign below-slot and be a good bet to provide good ML value up-the-middle.

I'd look for HS arms and OFs over-slot, as well as draft eligible college sophomores such as Dixon Anderson (RHP, Cal) and Mark Canha (OF, Cal). If someone like Cox were to fall, I might pay a little extra to grab him, as well.

+1,000,000...

This is exactly what my approach would be, depending on how Taillon looks from now until draft day and what kind of bonus he's looking for.

[jerios55]

I voted for Hobgood style, but with this possible being the last draft before a new CBA I say go all in. I'd love to see like 15 million spent knowing that leverage will be heavily on their side (why would a 4th rounder not sign if a harder cap will be put in place).

[Os_Watcher]

I voted for Hobgood style, but with this possible being the last draft before a new CBA I say go all in. I'd love to see like 15 million spent knowing that leverage will be heavily on their side (why would a 4th rounder not sign if a harder cap will be put in place).

Hell of a point