Bucs president asked about Harper

[alexei606]

Here's an interesting story from Jayson StarK:

Feel a draft? Ten months after Bryce Harper showed up on the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16, we're getting the mounting sense that clubs at the top of this June's draft are almost beginning to look for reasons not to take this guy.

"Don't get me wrong. This kid projects as a starting catcher in the big leagues," said an executive of one of those teams. "But he's not the type of guy you want to pay three times the going rate for -- which is what Scott [Boras] is going to be looking for.

"I'll put it this way," the same exec went on. "With Alex Rodriguez, when you walked in to see him against high school competition, he separated himself. Ken Griffey separated himself. This kid is a good player. But he's not in a class with A-Rod and those guys. Not even close. … And with all the hype Scott has generated around him, he's going to walk in the door with a monkey on his back, and it's not going to ever go away."

No one disputes Harper's staggering raw power or arm strength. But the same exec said Harper's crazy numbers at the College of Southern Nevada (.426 average, .521 on-base percentage, 12 homers in 115 at-bats) should be taken with an entire shaker of salt.

"Yeah, he's got great numbers," the exec said. "But to be honest, I've seen better high school pitchers in the top programs than the guys he faced when I saw him. Every weekend, he's basically going against one decent pitcher and three stiffs. So his numbers are a little inflated."

Nevertheless, with no clear alternative, it's going to take some serious guts for the Nationals not to take Harper No. 1, considering all the buzz that's built around him. But of course, that's exactly what Boras had in mind when he unleashed that buzz.

Of course the "exec" fails to point out that Harper should be a Junior in High School, not a Freshman in Junior College and that he is a 17 year old playing against 19 to 21 year olds in a wood bat league. And, Harper, if still in HS, would not be facing all of those "high school pitchers in the top programs", he would be facing a lot of non prospects even for College Ball. BTW, Harper has been playing against that top competition as a 15 year old and did well.

Any way, who wants to guess the "exec"'s team? I guess it just might be the Nationals in order to either begin the justification to the fans why not Harper or to try to bring the cost down. It could also be Pittsburgh - but, has their "execs" been to his games? I thought Washington did have some "execs" in to see Harper, IIRC.

[hoosiers]

Of course the "exec" fails to point out that Harper should be a Junior in High School, not a Freshman in Junior College and that he is a 17 year old playing against 19 to 21 year olds in a wood bat league. And, Harper, if still in HS, would not be facing all of those "high school pitchers in the top programs", he would be facing a lot of non prospects even for College Ball. BTW, Harper has been playing against that top competition as a 15 year old and did well.

Any way, who wants to guess the "exec"'s team? I guess it just might be the Nationals in order to either begin the justification to the fans why not Harper or to try to bring the cost down. It could also be Pittsburgh - but, has their "execs" been to his games? I thought Washington did have some "execs" in to see Harper, IIRC.

Of course, the exec could be telling the truth. Harper is the best HS bat in this draft, but not of the same class as ARod or Kid Griffey and would not be worth a record setting signing bonus.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Here's an interesting story from Jayson StarK:



Of course the "exec" fails to point out that Harper should be a Junior in High School, not a Freshman in Junior College and that he is a 17 year old playing against 19 to 21 year olds in a wood bat league.

I just checked: Harper is far and away the best hitter in his league (Scenic West Conference). His 1.391 OPS is .202 better than the next guy. He has 12 HRs; one of his teammates has eight; nobody else in the league has more than five.

So if the pitchers in that league are 75 p.c. stiffs, none of the 19- to 21-year-olds he's playing with and against is doing as good a job of beating up on stiffs.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Of course, the exec could be telling the truth. Harper is the best HS bat in this draft, but not of the same class as ARod or Kid Griffey and would not be worth a record setting signing bonus.

The value of top prospects has risen so much that bonuses given out 15 or 20 years ago are probably not a valid standard. Harper's bonus will be determined in part by the current market value of top young players. It'll all come down to upside and projection, but if he stands a reasonable chance of turning into, say, Mauer 2008 (let alone Mauer 2009), then he's quite valuable.

[Stotle]

I just checked: Harper is far and away the best hitter in his league (Scenic West Conference). His 1.391 OPS is .202 better than the next guy. He has 12 HRs; one of his teammates has eight; nobody else in the league has more than five.

So if the pitchers in that league are 75 p.c. stiffs, none of the 19- to 21-year-olds he's playing with and against is doing as good a job of beating up on stiffs.

Exactly -- I think the exec is blowing smoke. What Harper is doing is phenomenal, no matter how you look at it. As everyone knows, Friday starters tend to be the aces in college. Harper's Friday slash line?

.435/.565/.826

I don't know what the exec has been watching, but CSN plays a competitive schedule and has faced some of the top JC programs in the nation already this year. Yes, a 17 year old hitting with wood against some of the better JC talent across the country isn't noteworthy at all. I'd give him slot + 5%.

Donavan Tate received a record-setting bonus last year for a player ths age -- I welcome the exec to explain how Tate, including his few mechanical knocks in his swing, is worth a record setting bonus but Harper is not. I'd also like to know what a player would need to do to earn such praise. Clearly graduating from HS after your sophomore year and taking on college pitching with wood is not as impressive as the casual fan might think. I reiterate -->

[alexei606]

Exactly -- I think the exec is blowing smoke. What Harper is doing is phenomenal, no matter how you look at it. As everyone knows, Friday starters tend to be the aces in college. Harper's Friday slash line?

.435/.565/.826

I don't know what the exec has been watching, but CSN plays a competitive schedule and has faced some of the top JC programs in the nation already this year. Yes, a 17 year old hitting with wood against some of the better JC talent across the country isn't noteworthy at all. I'd give him slot + 5%.

Donavan Tate received a record-setting bonus last year for a player ths age -- I welcome the exec to explain how Tate, including his few mechanical knocks in his swing, is worth a record setting bonus but Harper is not. I'd also like to know what a player would need to do to earn such praise. Clearly graduating from HS after your sophomore year and taking on college pitching with wood is not as impressive as the casual fan might think. I reiterate -->

yeah, I agree. That "exec" is full of it and anyone that "agrees" with that "exec" doesn't understand at all how extradordinary Harper's accomplishments are.

[Stotle]

yeah, I agree. That "exec" is full of it and anyone that "agrees" with that "exec" doesn't understand at all how extradordinary Harper's accomplishments are.

[alexei606]

I hope I didn't confuse you. I certainly know that you can see what Harper has accomplished.

[Stotle]

I hope I didn't confuse you. I certainly know that you can see what Harper has accomplished.

[wickedwitch]

The value of top prospects has risen so much that bonuses given out 15 or 20 years ago are probably not a valid standard. Harper's bonus will be determined in part by the current market value of top young players. It'll all come down to upside and projection, but if he stands a reasonable chance of turning into, say, Mauer 2008 (let alone Mauer 2009), then he's quite valuable.

He doesn't even need to be Mauer 2008. If he has Hoiles' first six years, then he'll still be worth the a Strasburg-like contract.

[ShoelesJoe]

Man, I hate articles like this. I'd already given up on the chances of landing Harper this year, and now here's fresh hope. If he falls to us and we pass you will see the warehouse burn that night. It'll be Bastille Day on the harbor.