Keith Law on Taillon/Orioles

[jamesenoch]

From today's ESPN chat :

Brian (MD)
With pick 3 do you see the O's going pitcher maybe somebody like Pomeraz or Taillon or position player maybe somebody like Machado?

Klaw (1:16 PM)
Taillon. That's about as strong a rumor as I've heard on any team other than Harper to the Nats.

Yes, please.

[Mackus]

I would be very excited about this!

[jamesenoch]

More :

Dan (Chicago)
Seems like most draft commentary I've seen has the O's preferring Taillon to Machado. But given their abundance of pitching and big hole at SS, shouldn't they at least be giving Machado a hard look?

Klaw (1:48 PM)
I don't think they've failed to do their due diligence on Machado, but I know several scouts and at least two directors who think Taillon is a special case, an advanced prep arm with present plus stuff who should be treated more like a college guy.

[mcgraw238]

Very nice stuff on Taillon. Not to mention that getting an arm like Taillon into the system may allow AM to pull the trigger on the badly needed big bat.

[NewMarketSean]

Is Talion signable? What will he cost? I think that plays an important part in this.

[Hutman]

Very nice stuff on Taillon. Not to mention that getting an arm like Taillon into the system may allow AM to pull the trigger on the badly needed big bat.

You can never have too much pitching. And yes that would allow us to make a deal for a premium bat.

[Stotle]

Is Talion signable? What will he cost? I think that plays an important part in this.

I think he'll be expensive, but signable. My guess is a little above what Turner got last year -- may require a MLB contract. Total package could go as high as $6-8 million, depending on structure.

[waroriole]

I think he'll be expensive, but signable. My guess is a little above what Turner got last year -- may require a MLB contract. Total package could go as high as $6-8 million, depending on structure.

If he got an MLB contract he would have to be on the team by 2014 right?

[ChaosLex]

Let's not forget that the Bucs pick #2. They could easily snatch Taillon up.

[mcgraw238]

I think he'll be expensive, but signable. My guess is a little above what Turner got last year -- may require a MLB contract. Total package could go as high as $6-8 million, depending on structure.

I would not give him a MLB contract. I think you go a little higher in bonus before going MLB contract to a high school pitcher.

[mcgraw238]

Let's not forget that the Bucs pick #2. They could easily snatch Taillon up.

The Bucs are said to be focusing on Machado or a college arm.

[Stotle]

If he got an MLB contract he would have to be on the team by 2014 right?

Right. It would most likely be a contract that begins 2011, with 11, 12 and 13 being three option years. He'd need to be on the 25-man come 2014 (which is definitely possible).

[jamesenoch]

Let's not forget that the Bucs pick #2. They could easily snatch Taillon up.

From the same Keith Law chat :

Mike (Rutland, Vt)
Keith,Have you heard anything yet on the draft strategy the Pirates might use this year? Similar to last year?

Klaw (1:31 PM)
At a general level, yes, similar to last year. The difference is that last year, they saw two can't-miss guys, but picked 4th, and both were gone. Now there's one guy in another league, then a group of 3-5 guys who are all in the mix to be called the second-best guy in the draft, and I believe the Pirates are considering all of them but the prep arms. (They'll take prep arms in later rounds, like last year.) I wrote a few weeks ago that if you don't take Matzek at 4 you're not likely to take Taillon at 2, and I think that's still valid.

[waroriole]

Right. It would most likely be a contract that begins 2011, with 11, 12 and 13 being three option years. He'd need to be on the 25-man come 2014 (which is definitely possible).

That seems pretty risky for a HS kid doesn't it? Is he more advanced than Loewen, despite being younger? I get the idea that it helps these guys make more money earlier, but why would you want to risk stunting your development (if you're a player).

[Stotle]

That seems pretty risky for a HS kid doesn't it? Is he more advanced than Loewen, despite being younger? I get the idea that it helps these guys make more money earlier, but why would you want to risk stunting your development (if you're a player).

He's advanced. He can get on ML hitters right now. Maybe not sustain success, but his FB and CB are swing-and-miss pitches for MLers right now. He'll need to iron out some things, particularly learningthe ins-and-outs of facing pro hitters, how to set up over the course of an AB and a game, and how to keep yourself strong and fresh through a long pro season. There is growth needed, but his raw stuff is filthy right now. Calling him a quasi-college arm isn't too much of a stretch.