There is no way!

[GoldGlove21]

There is no way that the Orioles land Bay, Holliday, or Lackey. According to some reports that came out today Jason Bay could be offered 4/$60 Million by the Red Sox. A side note was that the Mets or Giants could offer more! If Bay can land a deal in the $16 Million a year range then I would expect Holliday to get an offer in the $18 Million a year range. Think 4/$60 or 5/$80 for Bay and 5/$90 or 6/$110 for Holliday.

Lackey could also command a salary in the $100 Million dollar range and I would imagine he could get pretty close to that number with a 5 year deal. So much for a down economy and so much for the Orioles having any chance of signing these guys. The reasoning is simple like it was with Tex. If we have to overpay to get a guy that is fine, but it is tough to overpay for a guy with a yearly salary in the $16+ Million range. Does anyone really want to give Holliday $19 or $20 Million a year over 6 years? What about the same for Lackey?

Maybe the lack of top notch talent this year is driving up the price, but Lowe, Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett saw the same thing happen to them last year. I think the down economy is going to have more of an affect on guys like Delgado than any of the premium guys.

That means that if we ever make a big splash he would likely be the only one as it is difficult for most teams to land two player's that made $14+ Million a year and another three that make $10+ Million a year. I decided to make a list.

Teams that meet the criteria (In Millions, rounded to the nearest whole #):

Yankees (Brace Yourself)-Rodriguez ($33), Jeter ($22), Teixeira ($20.6), Burnett ($17), Sabathia ($16), Rivera ($15), Posada ($13), Damon $13), and Matsui ($13)

Angels-Hunter ($18), Guerrero ($15), Matthews ($10), Escobar ($10), and Lackey ($10)

Cubs-Zambrano ($18.8), Soriano ($17), Ramirez ($17), Lee ($13), Lilly ($13), and Fukudome ($13).

Mets-Beltran ($20), Santana ($20), Sheffield ($14), Delgado ($12), Perez
($12), and Wagner ($11).

Twins-Ordonez ($19.2), Cabrera ($15), Bonderman ($13), Guillen ($10), and Willis ($10).

I think the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Cubs, and White Sox markets are better markets than Baltimore, but I am not trying to make excuses for us. There is no reason why Baltimore should operate like the Royals, Pirates, Rays, or Marlins either. The Orioles should be able to operate in the same budget as the Twins and Phillies who both were contenders this year. Both of those teams developed or traded for a great deal of young talent. Eventually that young talent will be seeking big pay raises and I can see that with the Orioles. So I decided to list the number of teams that have five players or more making $10 Million a year with at least two of those players making $14 or more Million a year.

Those numbers were not pulled from the air. The way I fugure if Matt Wieters stays at catcher and hits to a Jorge Posada level he will be a $14 Million a year player. Adam Jones if he plays a solid centerfield and puts up decent numbers will at least get the deal that Gary Matthews got from the Angels. We have Brian Roberts making $10 Million over the next 4 years and Nick Markakis will be a $12-$17 Million guy as well. I think the odds that two of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton, Hernandez, or Bergesen will become at least a slightly above average Ted Lilly type is high. Two of them will sign an extension in the $10+ Million a year range IMO. Even if Arrieta excels in a closer role he could find himself making that kind of money (top-15 closer).

IMO that means that the Orioles have a single big signing in their future if they want to have any real chance of locking some of the young talent into an extension when we are ready. The Orioles can not afford to miss like some of the teams mentioned above can. Because the Orioles can only sign a single player in the $19 Million range or two players in the $10 Million range, then they had better make them count and fill needs. A big bat is a need, but the position that the bat plays at can not be ignored. Bay, Holliday, and Lackey may be a great fit for some clubs, but I just do not see us being one of those clubs. With all the talk about Tex the Orioles biggest mistake of AM tenure may have been passing up on Dunn at $8-$10 Million a year. He could have been an above average bat that could have filled in as a DH or 1B. We then could have used that money on another bat in 2011.

There may be some fireworks on the trade front as teams might be trying to dump salary, but I wouldn't hold my breath in terms of signing a free agent to a large deal this offseason. For all the flak we give the Orioles (They deserve it too) we need to take a step back and realize that there is a smarter and more effecient way to run a franchise.

[O's84]

I don't think many of the Top FA this off season given our position fit our needs. Lackey is one but I think we might have to wait another off season out which may not be a bad thing becasue we can still improve our team and set ourselves up nicely for next year with a good young team and finicial flexibility.

P.S. I''m sure the Tigers are happy the Twins are paying a large portion of their payroll.

[Frobby]

Originally Posted by GoldGlove21

Yankees (Brace Yourself)-Rodriguez ($33), Jeter ($22), Teixeira ($20.6), Burnett ($17), Sabathia ($16), Rivera ($15), Posada ($13), Damon $13), and Matsui ($13)

Angels-Hunter ($18), Guerrero ($15), Matthews ($10), Escobar ($10), and Lackey ($10)

Cubs-Zambrano ($18.8), Soriano ($17), Ramirez ($17), Lee ($13), Lilly ($13), and Fukudome ($13).

Mets-Beltran ($20), Santana ($20), Sheffield ($14), Delgado ($12), Perez
($12), and Wagner ($11).

Tigers-Ordonez ($19.2), Cabrera ($15), Bonderman ($13), Guillen ($10), and Willis ($10).

I've bolded the players listed above who were home-grown by their teams. By the way, I've corrected "Twins" to Tigers" and you may want to do that in your opening post.

It's noteworthy that only 2 of the 5 teams made the playoffs this year. It's also noteworthy that Boston isn't among the teams that meet your criteria of two $14mm and 3 more $10 mm+. The only $14 mm player they have is J.D. Drew. It's amazing how adept they have been at locking up good talent at reasonable prices.

As to what the O's can afford, I think one flaw in your logic is that Markakis won't cost $14 mm for several more years, nor will Wieters or the pitchers. We can certainly afford a couple of $14 mm+ players over the next few seasons, if that makes sense at the time. If we reach a point, 3-4 years from now, where an upcoming payroll crunch makes it untenable to keep everyone, that's when you trade a very good player and get several younger players back.

My big issue with spending a lot of money on free agents right now is that they aren't going to help us be a contender in 2010, and the best players available mostly don't meet our needs. Better to wait until we are closer to contention with home grown talent, then make the big acquisition, targeting our weakest spots (which aren't totally knowable in terms of 2 years down the road).

[clarence]

Originally Posted by Frobby

I've bolded the players listed above who were home-grown by their teams. By the way, I've corrected "Twins" to Tigers" and you may want to do that in your opening post.

It's noteworthy that only 2 of the 5 teams made the playoffs this year. It's also noteworthy that Boston isn't among the teams that meet your criteria of two $14mm and 3 more $10 mm+. The only $14 mm player they have is J.D. Drew. It's amazing how adept they have been at locking up good talent at reasonable prices.

As to what the O's can afford, I think one flaw in your logic is that Markakis won't cost $14 mm for several more years, nor will Wieters or the pitchers. We can certainly afford a couple of $14 mm+ players over the next few seasons, if that makes sense at the time. If we reach a point, 3-4 years from now, where an upcoming payroll crunch makes it untenable to keep everyone, that's when you trade a very good player and get several younger players back.

My big issue with spending a lot of money on free agents right now is that they aren't going to help us be a contender in 2010, and the best players available mostly don't meet our needs. Better to wait until we are closer to contention with home grown talent, then make the big acquisition, targeting our weakest spots (which aren't totally knowable in terms of 2 years down the road).

I agree. The one reason I would like to see us spend some money is if it allows us to make some trades. Sign a guy to take Guthries spot in the rotation, trade Guthrie and get another piece. Yes, it costs more than Guthrie would, but it brings another piece. Same with any other position. If we can get a guy for a couple years through free agency, even if we overpay, and it allows us to trade a comparable piece with a better contract situation, I am for this. That is the only way I can see the O's justifying getting really involved with this free agent class.

[Nite]

Rameriez for the Cubs was brought up in the Pirates system and traded to the Cubs for basically nothing ala the Pirates as we know them.

[CSB Jack]

Originally Posted by GoldGlove21

With all the talk about Tex the Orioles biggest mistake of AM tenure may have been passing up on Dunn at $8-$10 Million a year. He could have been an above average bat that could have filled in as a DH or 1B.

I agree with most of what you laid out there. And I would have been interested in Dunn at that price as well. The problem is that he considered himself an outfielder and didn't bring his asking price down till the Nats signed him for two years at $10MM per, with the assurance that they would give him a shot in the outfield. That went out the window when Johnson was traded, and of course Dunn was the insurance in case Nick got hurt (again). But Dunn did not want to come to Baltimore where he knew he'd be pretty much a full time DH and occasional OF/1B. He'd have been what Huff was in 2008 if with the O's and that's not what he wanted. So AM moved on without him. Not sure if he'd have come to Baltimore to DH for $12MM/year but by the time he figured out he wasn't going to get what he wanted a lot of possible landing sites dried up.

[mikezpen]

I keep hearing how we have to wait till 2011 to "go all out"-right? This thinking is based on the flawed notion that we can get somebody to come here in 2011.It's also based on an extremely optimistic assumption that we'll get some dramatic improvement from the young players we have now, even if we don't sign anybody significant this off season.

Maybe-maybe not.I lean toward the "maybe not". Yes, Wieters and Matusz will be better-Reimold and Bergeson too, probably. We should expect improvement from Jones and Markakis as they develop. But this team has major defects regardless of what those kids do.Counting on the present roster, augmented by a few celebrated retreads like Carlos Delgado or (god help us) Casey Kotchman, to lead us to a point where we/re only a player or two away is a real stretch.

What makes anybody here think that next year's premium FAs will somehow just jump to Baltimore if we go out there this summer and lose another 88-90 games. (and unless we improve this team, major, that's probably exactly what will happen.) They won't come here! They'll use us like they always do, and we'll have blown two off-seasons for nothing.

If they want Lackey they have to go after Lackey. They really need a top pitcher. They're going to have to be willing to trade some people for a top hitting prospect for first, or maybe a pitcher, and/or someone like Dunn who maybe they can extend.They have to make moves THIS winter, not wait till next winter and blissfully assume everything will work out simply fine.

[LeeDorm8185]

Originally Posted by clarence

I agree. The one reason I would like to see us spend some money is if it allows us to make some trades. Sign a guy to take Guthries spot in the rotation, trade Guthrie and get another piece. Yes, it costs more than Guthrie would, but it brings another piece. Same with any other position. If we can get a guy for a couple years through free agency, even if we overpay, and it allows us to trade a comparable piece with a better contract situation, I am for this. That is the only way I can see the O's justifying getting really involved with this free agent class.

If the other team needs a pitcher bad enough that they'd be willing to give up something of value for Guthrie (meaning no offense to Guthrie, just trying to make a point here), why wouldn't they just go sign that "other guy" instead? Same goes for the "any other position".

[Os_Watcher]

Go all out?

I don't expect them to do that at all to be honest. Not in any one year anyway. However the list of Free Agents isn't staggering this year. But there is much more talent (so is my understanding) after 2010...

I think as far as free agency goes, the team spending wildly one year is not how they are trying to do things. It's more of an approach to filling a weakness via free agency as needed. Do you really want the payroll to balloon up in one season's time and then be handicapped in subsequent years when players that fit may become available? Nah!

My guess is they won't get a "BIG" bat this year. Though they might land a "Better" than we have now guy this year. As for pitching... They really do need to add a SP and figure out a solution (long term) for a closer. The bad news is that many aren't impressed with any names past the big names as a SP and I don't see any closers available at this time.

[Bradysburns]

Originally Posted by Frobby

I've bolded the players listed above who were home-grown by their teams. By the way, I've corrected "Twins" to Tigers" and you may want to do that in your opening post.

It's noteworthy that only 2 of the 5 teams made the playoffs this year. It's also noteworthy that Boston isn't among the teams that meet your criteria of two $14mm and 3 more $10 mm+. The only $14 mm player they have is J.D. Drew. It's amazing how adept they have been at locking up good talent at reasonable prices.

As to what the O's can afford, I think one flaw in your logic is that Markakis won't cost $14 mm for several more years, nor will Wieters or the pitchers. We can certainly afford a couple of $14 mm+ players over the next few seasons, if that makes sense at the time. If we reach a point, 3-4 years from now, where an upcoming payroll crunch makes it untenable to keep everyone, that's when you trade a very good player and get several younger players back.

My big issue with spending a lot of money on free agents right now is that they aren't going to help us be a contender in 2010, and the best players available mostly don't meet our needs. Better to wait until we are closer to contention with home grown talent, then make the big acquisition, targeting our weakest spots (which aren't totally knowable in terms of 2 years down the road).

Absolutely true. But when Boston broke through, their 1 through 3 starting pitchers were all from outside organizations. Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield... If AM wants to surprise on the trade front and land us a Beckett for a HanRam-level prospect (if we have one), then get a Schill in the FA market for 2011 (if there is one)... and acquire a Wakefield-like innings eater to be the #3 starter... you could have Matusz at 4 and Tillman at 5.

I'm all for that.

[clarence]

Originally Posted by LeeDorm8185

If the other team needs a pitcher bad enough that they'd be willing to give up something of value for Guthrie (meaning no offense to Guthrie, just trying to make a point here), why wouldn't they just go sign that "other guy" instead? Same goes for the "any other position".

Because of money. Guthrie or the "any other position" guy would cost much less than what you could get in free agency. We are in a position to add some payroll, many teams aren't.

[Mackus]

Originally Posted by GoldGlove21

There is no way that the Orioles land Bay, Holliday, or Lackey. According to some reports that came out today Jason Bay could be offered 4/$60 Million by the Red Sox. A side note was that the Mets or Giants could offer more! If Bay can land a deal in the $16 Million a year range then I would expect Holliday to get an offer in the $18 Million a year range. Think 4/$60 or 5/$80 for Bay and 5/$90 or 6/$110 for Holliday.

I think a decent argument could be made to offer those types of contracts for Bay and Holliday.

However, I don't think a decent argument could be made for making a contract offer to them that beats that type of contract offer from a contender to those guys. If you can get them for the 4/$60M for Bay or 6/$108M for Holliday, that could be a decent risk to take, but if you have to beat those types of offers from contenders to get them to sign here, basically offering 5/$80M for Bay or 7/$140M for Holliday (beating those deals by one year and $2M per year) then I don't think that can be as easily justified.

[byrdz]

Yeah as badly as the Orioles need power the Giants need it more and are willing to pay big.

[mweb08]

Escobar and Perez were not home-grown.

I agree with Mackus, although I don't think we'd need to beat the offers by quite that much.