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Frobby

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Frobby last won the day on January 14

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14,034 Supreme Hangout Council Member

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About Frobby

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    Hangout Blogger

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  • Location
    Bethesda MD
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Besides this one? Breathing, I guess.
  • Occupation
    Lawyer
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Not sure I have one right now
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Frank Robinson (duh)

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  1. I mostly agree with you. By the way, Santander played 141 games between the majors and the minors in 2019 and had no time on the IL that year. I recall that some of his missed time in 2017 seemed to be the result of the O’s manipulating his Rule 5 status, though not entirely. In 2018 he only missed about four weeks. He was in the minors when that season ended and didn’t get called up. His injury history really hasn’t been that bad.
  2. You’re right, 20% is too high. Took a quick look and something like 10% of all pitchers who debuted from 2009-11 had a 10 WAR career. I do expect Wells to pitch in the majors but his odds of having a 10 WAR career are probably below that 10% average. And, at this point I’d think Davies might end up well over 10 WAR, considering he’s at 9.7 through age 27. He might hit 20 WAR if he’s lucky and remains healthy.
  3. As to the latter sentence, you just never know. The O’s apparently weren’t holding their breath on Zach Davies, but he overcame the challenges of having below average FB velocity and almost every team in the majors could use a guy like him in their rotation. The odds that Wells turns out to be another Davies are probably only 20% or so, but they’re not negligible. The guy has had success at every MiL stop, and that’s not something that should be ignored. Saying that, I doubt the O’s will be gaming his service time.
  4. I think they are some quotes from before Luke worked for the O’s.
  5. Agree, but at least he improved from .261/.297 to .261/.315.
  6. Fair enough. There have been many times we heard over the winter that a late season injury was nothing serious, only to find out the following March or April that the player needs surgery. I’ll certainly be holding my breath.
  7. I don’t see how I ignored that. I mentioned twice that Santander had played far fewer games than the players I cited as comps. I guess I didn’t say the word “injured” but that was pretty clearly implied.
  8. I am far from retired, but having a three day weekend helps.
  9. I spent part of the last two days compiling a database of 78 of the higher profile arbitration-eligible players, who either were projected to make $5 mm+, or $2mm+ if this was their first year of arbitration. In each case, I tracked their service time, their position, how much total WAR they accumulated before being eligible for arbitration the first time, how much WAR they had in the season immediately preceding their first arb-eligible season and in each subsequent season, and what their arb-eligible salaries have been. I’m hoping to use it in the future to develop comps for arb-eligible players and analyze whether the team or the player has the better case in the cases that actually go to arbitration. My first foray into this is Anthony Santander. He has demanded $2.475 mm and the O’s have offered $2.100 mm. There aren’t any great comps for Santander due to his injury history and the fact that last season was strike shortened. Santander has played many fewer major league games than almost any position player who is arb-eligible. He was worth 1.7 rWAR last year playing only 37 games of a pandemic-shortened 60-game season. He’s been worth 2.5 rWAR cumulatively in his career, playing just 177 games, accruing a slash line of .252/.292/467 with 32 HR and 99 RBI. He’s been stronger than that over the last two seasons, a factor that weighs pretty heavily in his case. I’ve identified 5 arb-eligible outfielders who are comps for Santander. I am listing them here in order of their Arb 1 salary, from highest to lowest: Teoscar Hernandez, $4.325 mm. Like Santander, Hernandez is eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2021. Also like Santander, Hernandez had a breakout season in 2020, posting .919 OPS compared to his .780 career mark previously. His 1.5 rWAR in 50 games was slightly less than Santander’s 1.7 in 37 games, though his OPS was higher. He rates as a below average outfielder though he has played a decent bit of CF along with both corners, mostly LF. I see two big advantages for Hernandez. First, he has more service time, 3.097 to 2.162 years of service. Second, he has played a lot more in his pre-arb years, 377 games compared to 177, accruing 3.8 rWAR compared to Santander’s 2.5. For those reasons, it is not too surprising that he will be earning almost $2 mm more than Santander no matter how the latter’s arbitration comes out. Kyle Schwarber, $3.39 mm. Scwharber was an Arb-1 in 2019, after a 1.8 rWAR campaign in which he slashed .238/.356/.467 with 26 HR and 61 RBI. Through that point he had accrued 3.2 rWAR and slashed .228/.339/.470 in 337 games and had accrued 3.086 years of service. He’s considered a poor defensive corner OF. Nomar Mazara, $3.30 mm. Mazara was an Arb-1 in 2019, after an 0.7 rWAR campaign in which he hit .258/.317/.436 with 20 HR and 77 RBI. Through then he had accumulated only 0.6 rWAR (net negative before 2019) and slashed .258/.320/.425 in 3.000 years of service, playing in 421 games. He is another below average defender, playing RF. Jesse Winker, $3.15 mm. Winker was arb-eligible for the first time this offseason. Last year, he posted a 1.3 rWAR, .255/.388/.544 season with 12 HR and 23 RBI in 54 games. In his career he has totaled 2.5 rWAR, slashing .280/.380/.479 in 3.080 years of service. He appears to be below average defensively. Brian Goodwin, $2.2 mm. Goodwin was an Arb-1 in 2020, after a 2.2 rWAR campaign in which he slashed .262/.326/.470 with 17 homers and 47 RBI. Through then he had accumulated 2.5 rWAR in his career, posting .255/.320/.461 in 307 games and had accrued 3.019 years of service. Again, Goodwin is a below average defender. Bottom line, the fact that Santander has played only 177 major league games makes I really hard to compare him to anyone. But in terms of his production in the year before his Arb-1 season, and his total WAR through that season, his production was pretty comparable to these players even though he had played a lot less. Overall I think these comps tend to support Santander's case at $2.475 mm.
  10. They did, but as I recall they did offer a compromise and Joseph foolishly rejected it. This was after his 0 RBI season and he foolishly thought he was going to get $1 mm in his first year of arbitration after that performance. Bad decision. The O’s have a very good track record in arbitration but did lose the last one they contested, to Brad Brach.
  11. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/orioles-re-sign-thomas-eshelman.html Woo hoo!
  12. They do fight, but honestly I think they usually fight over bigger gaps than this. Plus, I think they’re on the losing side, and by your own logic if they lose the effect will be multiplied in future years.
  13. It’s a pretty small difference. I doubt the outcome will have much effect on future years in his case. His performance will have a lot more impact.
  14. I’m fine signing another pitcher or two. There’s always attrition.
  15. Another article from Melewski on the international signings, notable because it provides virtually no new information or quotes but pretty much just recycles yesterday’s information. And honestly, yesterday really just confirmed what we already knew was going to happen. But hey, we’re on the map in the international market so we may as well wallow in it. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/01/another-look-at-a-landmark-day-for-the-os-organization.html
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