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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. My point (and going back to the post about the Cubs that started this) is that 47-115 and 71-91 are two very different starting points when deciding how to get back to being a contender. To me, the Cubs have choices; the Orioles really didn’t, by the time Elias got here (and arguably even before that). If your point is that Elias knew what he was getting into, well sure he did. And if you’re saying the owners picked him because his vision was consistent with the approach they wanted to take (and had already set out on), I’m fine with that too.
  2. Ray Searage, who was pitching coach of the Pirates at the time Lyles was there, had an excellent reputation and a very nice run in Pittsburgh, though he was fired at the end of 2019 and the Pirates had their worst ERA during his tenure that season. Per his Wikipedia page: As the Pirates' pitching coach, Searage was credited with rejuvenating the careers of Francisco Liriano, Edinson Vólquez, Charlie Morton, J. A. Happ, and A. J. Burnett.
  3. The Lyles move concerns me more than Odor, because it feels like we are spending money just to say we spent it. We probably could have gotten a similar pitcher in February for considerably less money. $7 mm should buy someone better. Of course, getting pitchers to come to Baltimore right now isn’t easy.
  4. True. I hope it goes better this year for those guys, and of course, for Grayson. And Bradish. It’s amazing to me how Tampa never seems to have these hiccups. They bring up a guy like Baz and he looks good right away. Granted, he was a highly regarded prospect, but seems like even our better prospects never seem to debut smoothly.
  5. Well, the issue is whether he really will get us into the 6th inning most nights. That depends on how hard he’s getting hit, particularly when the middle innings roll around.
  6. Can’t argue with that. Hard to say if the Elias team bears any blame for his lack of progress, but it’s happened on their watch. Overall, they seem to be doing a good job developing hitters and nobody wins them all.
  7. I think Lyles has far less upside than Ubaldo had. Ubaldo was terrible for us, but he had several seasons in his career that were far beyond what Lyles has ever done. He came to Baltimore with a career 3.92 ERA despite having spent 6 seasons pitching in Coors Field. (It should be noted that Lyles also pitched in Coors for 3.7 seasons.). Lyles is much more of a stopgap than Ubaldo was supposed to be. Honestly, I haven’t really found any veteran pitcher the O’s have ever signed who got paid as much as Lyles with such a mediocre track record. Even the “innings eater” rationale is
  8. It is a bit overstated by some, particularly with respect to the farm system. But when you look at the major league team, the farm system and the lack of a viable international program, it’s very hard to find a worse situation than the O’s were in when Elias got here. Even you have said you think Elias basically has done what you would have done prior to this offseason. The real debate is whether the foundation is now at the point where adding talented veterans is appropriate. I see that as a separate question from what has happened through this season. (Obviously, individual past mov
  9. We’ll, to be fair, these same projection systems have just about all of our young pitchers improving significantly in 2022. Zimmermann 4.60/4.85 Lowther 4.72/4.90 Baumann 4.80/5.21 A. Wells 4.88/5.22 Akin 5.23/4.95 Kremer 5.28/5.04 Honestly I’d take any of those after last year’s debacle.
  10. There’s been some discussion of this. The warehouse angles away from home plate, so that 439 down the foul line increases very quickly as balls go left of there. The ground there is 25 feet higher than at home plate, so the “true distance is longer than 439. And, the wind currents on Eutaw Street aren’t favorable, as wind bounces off the warehouse and pushes back the other way.
  11. I wonder how many pages this thread will consume?
  12. Fun with projections: Marcel says 163 innings at 4.97 ERA. Steamer says 158 innings at 5.50 ERA. I’m sure neither of those factor in his move to Baltimore.
  13. I generally hate the offseason anyway, but now that the CBA has expired and it’s obvious that talks are going to proceed at a snail’s pace, what the heck are we supposed to discuss for the next two months? I can only say so much about Rougned Odor and Jordan Lyles. I think those topics will be burned through by the end of today. And, we won’t have other teams making moves so we can have the reactionary “why didn’t we do that” or “should we claim the player who just got DFA’d” threads. It’s going to be a looonnnngggg winter…
  14. Couldn’t disagree with you more. The roster was horrible. They won 47 games and, of course, played even worse than that after trading Manny, Schoop, Gausman, Britton etc. That team was bound to be awful for the next few years no matter what. As to the farm system, I agree it was a bit underrated, but (1) it was still a below average system, and (2) the best talent in it was far away from the majors. And, of course, we had zero international talent in the pipeline and didn’t even have a pipeline built. My point here is limited. I am simply saying Elias wasn’t in a si
  15. For me, it depends a little bit why we are winning more games. First, let me say that I hate watching a game where we lose. I’ve never, ever rooted for the Orioles to lose a game because it would improve our draft position. But, when the year is over, if we’ve had a bad season, I’d rather have a higher pick than a lower one. What I’m looking at to balance that is what does the improved record show? Let’s say that Keegan Akin and Zac Lowther both stay in the rotation all year and pitch to a 4.50 ERA, Grayson Rodriguez comes up June 1 and throws to a 4.00 ERA, Adley puts up
  16. I don’t really care about Harvey’s FIP. For me, FIP is nothing more than a rough predictive tool. In terms of whether Lyles will be better than Harvey was last year, I care about Harvey’s actual results last year, not his FIP. Harvey had a 6.27 ERA, and Lyles’ ERA and his FIP were significantly lower than that (both last year and in his career). FWIW, I like BaseballSavant’s xERA much better than FIP, since it accounts for quality of contact in a way that FIP does not. Both Lyles and Harvey had a 5.41 xERA last year. Your point about the AL East being tougher is well taken.
  17. Well, this move is certainly underwhelming, but I do think there’s a good chance Lyles is better than Harvey or Lopez was last year. Not a sure thing though. $7 mm for this guy is clearly an overpay but that’s what it takes to get pitchers to come here right now.
  18. Surprised he settled for such a short deal.
  19. I know you’re just instigating here, but 91 losses isn’t 115. Not close. That’s what Elias walked into. And he didn’t really do a teardown; that had been done at the trade deadline before he arrived. You could say he finished off the teardown, but all the really choice assets had been dealt already. It will be interesting to see where the Cubs go from here.
  20. Oh, I think people know about it. But they won’t care until next season is actually threatened. The timing of the contract expiration allows the owners and players about two months to reach a deal before things get dicey, so nobody’s panicked yet. It does bother me that the negotiations haven’t been serious in the slightest up until now.
  21. I was expecting a lot. 110 is a little higher than I hoped, mostly because our young pitching had a very rocky year.
  22. Baltimore had a very good independent minor league team, also called the Orioles, for many years before the Browns moved to Charm City. I have the impression not many Baltimoreans really had a big rooting interest in a major league team. Don’t forget DC had the Senators before Baltimore had a team. Some people probably rooted for them. I think we had a thread on this a year or two ago.
  23. To me, you never really know until they reach the majors and perform well there. There have been countless cases (not just with the Orioles) where highly touted minor leaguers flopped in the majors, or took much longer than expected to hit their stride. I do think Elias & co. have a better idea than we do of the probability of success for our various players, but they also know that they aren’t always going to be right.
  24. Hey, this should be in my "internal improvement" thread! I think a 20 game improvement is a bit optimistic, and I doubt Mullins repeats his 2021 season, but otherwise it's a great synopsis. I'm sure some things will go wrong that aren't accounted for here. But there is reason to think the team will be more competitive in 2022 even without major additions.
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