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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. Credit to Can_of_corn, who posted this link in one of the Minors forum links.    I thought it deserved some play here, since it discusses players who have had their major league debut but haven’t lost rookie status.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/keeping-up-with-the-al-easts-prospects/

    Pretty optimistic take on our guys.   I was a bit surprised to see Urías mentioned, but here’s his writeup:

    “I buy that second baseman Ramón Urías has above-average feel to hit that makes him an above-replacement player with some sneaky trade value. Even at age 26, Urías has some roster flexibility thanks to two remaining option years and a service time clock that just started. He’s not a good defender and doesn’t have much power, but he puts the bat head on the ball consistently and can play second base, though not especially well. He’d be an interesting, small-trade depth target for a contender this winter, similar to Mark Mathias last year.”

     

     

     


  2. 6 hours ago, orioles22 said:

    I didn't think of it that way. Good point. He should be in high A and maybe make it to AA by midseason. I wonder if players will move more quickly if 2021 after the missed season.

    Probably.    I also think there will be a lot of competition in spring camp and we’ll see a lot of cuts and some surprising placements.  


  3. 58 minutes ago, murph said:

    I still want the Padres in the World Series.  Even with maniac Manny. 

    Well I hate to tell you this, but the Padres already lost their series to the Dodgers.   


  4. 3 hours ago, survivedc said:

    It is different, don’t be obtuse. A batter celebrating something he personally accomplished is different than a pitcher celebrating by himself after serving up a tater that was only saved by a great catch by his team mate. 

    Yeah, I prefer the latter.   


  5. 6 hours ago, Philip said:

    My query was actually directed at you. I thought Drungo also is up on the minors,nand doubtless many others I miss at the moment, but you’re king of research and stats so I (cough cough) nominate you to replace monsieur Luc and help Tony with the labor.

    And of course, speaking French will help you with all our Parisian Scouts!

    Ranking the minor leaguers isn’t mostly about stats.    You have to be able to watch a young player and pick out really nuanced things that tell you about their chances of becoming good major leaguers.    It’s totally outside my wheelhouse. I do form loose impressions of the minor leaguers based on stats, but honestly there are dozens of posters who have a better grasp on minor league talent than I do.   

    • Thanks 1

  6. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    I tried to find a list of all time at bats but couldn’t find anything more than the top 10 or so.

    I would guess that Manny has had more at bats than at least 80% of all MLers ever.

    Easily.   First of all, everyone who played before 1969 played no more than 7 postseason games in a year, as opposed to the multiple rounds they have today.   Second of all, 80% of players don’t have as long a career as Manny’s already had (8+ seasons).   


  7. 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

    That’s all well and good.

    I still stand by the thought that 122 plate appearances is a solid sample size for the POSTSEASON to be able to say he has failed so far. 

    It’s not a terribly low or high number, I’d say.    It’s almost twice as many PA as Adam Jones (.413 OPS) had in the postseason (65).   It’s about 1/6th of what Derek Jeter had (734).  Jeter, by the way, is the only player to have had as many postseason at bats as a player typically would get over one full season of regular season play.

    I also think it’s true (haven’t looked in a few years) that generally the postseason favors the pitchers.    So most hitters are going to do a bit worse than their regular season stats.   
     


  8. 48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I'll agree that he's been poor so far, I just don't think it predicts what he will do in the future.

    Agreed.   It’s no more indicative than 122 PA during the season would be, and arguably less so.   But people get judged by how they performed on the big stage, and so far he hasn’t done particularly well.   


  9. 4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    This is the biggest point here.i don’t care if he acts up once in a while. It means he has fire in his belly. The fact that he disappears in the playoffs is the Manny problem.

    Similar to a certain Ravens QB that performs badly when the team is down or in the playoffs.

    To me he hasn’t had enough playoff experience to draw any grand conclusions.  SSS and all that.  

    • Upvote 1
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  10. 4 hours ago, wildcard said:

    Why?  Looking at the way Elias has handled Mountcastle and now Diaz. A late season promotion in 2021 for a highly rated position player seems unlikely to me.   If the team is in contention in August then maybe they would do what happened to Manny but failing a surprise playoff year  I don't expect to see AR in 2021 at the major league level.

    1.   I agree that Rutschman is unlikely to get called up in 2021.   Like you, I do not expect it.    What I said was that I wouldn’t rule it out.   

    2.   If we buy into even half the hype, Rutschman > Mountcastle + Diaz combined.   He has to prove that on the field.  If he does that in a very clear way next year, I could see him getting called up.   Not likely, but possible.   

    3.   I have zero problem with how the O’s handled Mountcastle or Diaz, and I doubt I’ll have a problem with how they handle Rutschman.   But I’d love to see him truly dominate and make it very hard for them to justify keeping him down.    In my opinion, Diaz really hasn’t made that strong a case, and though Mountcastle did make the case with his bat, there were enough holes in his game (plate discipline and defense) to make a plausible case for polishing him up a bit before calling him up.   Did service time also play a role?   I’ll say probably yes, but I don’t think his case for an earlier call-up was irrefutable.   I’d like to see Rutschman make that case.   


  11. 1 hour ago, Philip said:

    Tony, that’s a lot of work, I really hope now that Luc is gone you have someone else to help you share the labor. I would really be happy to help if I knew anything, but I know nothing not even where to look.

    Sacre bleu!    Do we have any Francophone prospects for “Luc” to weigh in on?

    I’ll be interested to hear how Tony put this list together.    It’s really a challenge when there was no minor league season, a very short high school/college season for the players just drafted, and quite a few players who we received in trades but have never played an official game in the Orioles’ organization.   Hopefully Tony has some sources who got to see some of what went on at Bowie camp, as well as spring training.    And of course, we got a sneak peek at Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and Zimmermann against major league competition.    As always, I’m really looking forward to seeing and debating the list.    
     

    • Upvote 1

  12. 2 hours ago, scOtt said:

    I'm torn... I miss Manny, EVERY day. He's a special hitter and he's Brooks Robinson at 3B (and I DON'T say that lightly!)

    And yet... since we had him... And much more since he's been gone... Manny is a dumpster fire. I TRY to root for him... but he makes it harder and harder to do. Does more st00pid sh!t every series.... Maybe if he hit more than .200+ in the post season it would be easier.......

    He had some outbursts with us, but I feel he’s been much worse since we traded him.   Of course, I’m not watching him play every day, so I probably only see him when he’s done something great or terrible.   

    I also think the game has headed this way.    Behavior that was unacceptable 20 years ago is commonplace now.    I’m an old fogey so I preferred the old school way where players didn’t get overly demonstrative or overtly try to show up their opponent.    But, I guess younger folks find this appealing or at least exciting.   
     

    • Upvote 2

  13. 4 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

    If Adley starts 2021 in Aberdeen, I will run naked around Camden Yards.

    (Assuming he's not rehabbing from an injury or something weird like that.)

    I hope you understood that OriolesMagic83 was assuming that Aberdeen will be our high A team next year.    He wasn’t saying Rutschman could go to short season ball.    

    As to whether Adley starts in A+, I tend to doubt it, for the reasons stated in the OP.    But it’s not so unlikely that I would threaten to run naked at OPACY if it occurred.   I wouldn’t want to subject anyone to that spectacle.   
     


  14. Yeah, I’m not into that kind of behavior.   You can’t throw your bat like a spear after hitting a homer and then complain when the opposing pitcher throws his hat after a teammate makes a great catch to end an inning.   

    • Upvote 3

  15. 38 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

    Agreed, and I wasn't necessarily disputing Palmer's assertion in regard to Bedard. Rather that Cuellar (even more so than Palmer and McNally) was the pitcher who drove them crazy the most with his stuff.

    I was more of a McNally guy, but they were both superb.  Cuellar was super-crafty and really kept hitters off balance, plus he was one of the rare pitchers who threw a screwball.   


  16. 22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I for one am amazed he managed to do well without proving himself at every minor league level first.

    I’m pretty sure we won’t be seeing Weathers on the Padres’ opening day roster next year.    And I’m glad he had a successful 1.1 innings in a high pressure situation, but I wouldn’t conclude that he’s ready to be a major league pitcher based on that one outing.     Obviously, the Padres did think he could be useful as a reliever in the short term without disrupting his development.    So, good for him.  


  17. Sports Guy elsewhere posted this nice article on Gunnar’s experience in summer camp:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-gunnar-henderson-20201002-oubgthirbvg3tdi4s2uhnv7sw4-story.html%3foutputType=amp

    Though the article is mostly about Gunnar, I enjoyed this line:

    “He was a sponge when around top prospect Adley Rutschman, who by the end of the camp was an impossible out and constantly hitting the ball out of Prince George’s Stadium.”

     


  18. 8 hours ago, OFFNY said:

    o

     

    My cousins are Yankee fans that grew up in West Springfield, VA. They said that the Orioles pitcher that drove them crazy more than anyone was Mike Cuellar. The Orioles batter that they were tortured by the most was Brooks Robinson.

    I think saying Bedard had the best stuff of any O’s LH starter is different from saying he was the best LH starter.    Command and pitchability also come into play.   Not to mention longevity.    

    Best rWAR seasons by an O’s LH starter (only the best season for each starter is listed):

    McNally 1968 5.8

    Bedard 2007 5.7

    McGregor 1983 5.3

    Cuellar 1969 4.4

    Flanagan 1979 3.8


     

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