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Posts posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. On 11/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

    Funny how the Rays have managed to consistently be good in the AL East since 2008 without spending like the Yankees and Red Sox.

    Yes the Orioles have it harder in the AL East, but it's not an impossible task to win if you are a well run organization and have a plan like the Rays. 

    The Rays are one of the least healthy organizations in MLB.  They frequently have the lowest fan turnout, they are usually rumored to be moving.  They have very low cable revenues.

    Competitively they are run very well.  And the Franco extension certainly looks great now.

    • Upvote 1
  2. 10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Why are the Cardinals good every year?

    This one is easy.

    1.  They are in a division with three small market teams, two of whom don't even try (pirates, reds) most of the time.  (I.e. the same reason the Patriots were a 2000's dynasty).

    2.  They are the 6th most valuable franchise.  They have some of the best TV revenues in the game.  Thry have tons of resources to devote to the product. 

    3.  On top of that they spend a lot of their earnings into the product, while a top 6 valued franchise they frequently operate in the middle of the pack in revenues. (This would be a good owner - something the Orioles can't depend on)

    4.  Despite the above they have convinced MLB to get extra draft picks because of their metro area.  They are a large valuation team get the benefits of a small metro area team.  

    So in conclusion:

    The Orioles could follow their model if they get a new owner, division, and expanded their revenue streams (which likely isn't possible).


  3. 10 hours ago, now said:

    I like the thinking here. Again, it seems the task for Elias now is to arrive at greater confidence in when the real window starts. Previous premature announcements of "the Cavalry" come to mind to suggest caution. Statements like "This is the best looking crop of young prospects, etc. etc." only go so far. More hard data and performance benchmarks are needed.

    While I agree that concrete performance evaluation is necessary to a certain extent the "Calvary" was an Orioles article about a group of prospects that Orioles fans could latch on to but in reality only contained 1-2 mid 100 ranked prospects and some good organizational prospects.

    Adley and Grayson are the #1 positional and #1 pitching prospects in the game and Hall is also top 100.  Making sure they, and the team, can succeed from day 1 is important.

    • Upvote 2
  4. 5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    That’s right. You’re exactly right. Every 4/44 contract or a contract in that range won’t move the needle. Ever. We should never sign another player to a deal like that ever again. 

    Lesson learned. 

    I agree with you completely, a lot of this type of contract gets signed and succeeds. This is what I will say about contract though.  Anecdotally it feels to me like the 2/$32-34 contracts work out a lot more often.  LeMahieu, Morton...

    Also I would say this, if a small market team realizes its window is four years long it should not be signing these deals in year 3 or 4.  

    You have to be real about it when you are a small market team, sustained competitive windows dont exist.  (Obligatory Tampa is an outlier statement here).  Plan for four year windows or get wrecked.

    • Upvote 1
  5. 17 minutes ago, Frobby said:


    I must have missed the big Pirates signings.   Who are we talking about?   Nate Kirby signing a MiL deal?   Who else?


    They signed Quintana this week.  He has some super interesting underlying stats that suggest taking a chance on him might have been a good idea (FIP under 4).  

    Then there is a report they have agreed to a deal with Yoshi Tsutusgo, who did very well them late in the year.

    Not big signing but when your team (Orioles) has $0 in payroll obligations outside of base salaries you expect them to take some chances.

    • Thanks 1
  6. At the end of the 2022 season I dont think we will be asking why did Elias keep Gillespie over Vespi or Neustrom. I think we will be asking why didn't he keep those guys over Martin, Jones or Lopez. 

  7. 21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    We thought that last year and we lost a .1 rWAR reliever! 

    People who say this don't recognize that Pop was in his rookie year and clearly showed that he will most likely be a significant contributor to a good bullpen in a few years.  He has the tools.  Its not about what he was last year, its about what he will be in 2-3.

  8. 2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

    Very interesting. Seems like the ideas being proposed are tweaks to existing formulas rather than a new way of doing it. Basically:

    1. Salary floor for teams,
    2. Arbitration after 2 years, not 3, and 
    3. Free Agency after 5 years, not 6.

    Basically, let guys get paid younger and make teams spend on something. That wouldn't stop gaming of service time, but I'm not sure how else to do it.

    With a salary floor small market teams are going to be getting that 6th year on QO more often than not.

  9. If the Orioles don't add cornerstone playoff players now they are just stealing our money as fans. Cornerstone free agent players are often added one or two years ahead of playoff contention.

    You don't build a playoff contender in an off season, that doesn't leave room for adjustment and that how you end up wasting the control period for top prospects.

    The Orioles also need to be cognizant of the direction of the CBA.  If a salary floor is phased in, or control rules are changed to incent bringing up top prospects early in the year (e.g. changing arb rules) the Orioles need to be prepared to act in the free agent market accordingly.

    No one can know what that looks like now.

  10. On 11/15/2021 at 11:38 AM, owknows said:

    Sounds...... prestigious.

    Yea, ours is called the Cy Young Award.  Kind of odd sounding.

    Let's get some context here.  

    Choi Dong-won was a Korean pitcher.  He pitched in the KBO from 1983 to 1990.  He went 103-74, 26 saves, a 2.46 ERA.  With 1019 Ks.  He once struck out 223 in a season and won a championship in 84.  He was even signed by the blue jays.

    After playing he was a coach, politician and actor.  He died of colon cancer at age 53.

    • Upvote 1
    • Thanks 1
  11. 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

    Not sure but I would bet a lot lower.

    BTW, sign me up for an 800 OPS for him.  I would be fine with that.  But if someone is valuing him as an 825-900 OPS guy and they are overrating his defense, I would move him.

    What does that trade look like?  The Orioles aren't getting what the Sox got for Betts.  I can't think of any other analogs at the moment.

  12. A list of players receiving qualifying offers.

    Player, Team, 2021 WAR

  13. 17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Lol…there isn’t a team in the majors that can’t pay a player 30M.  There is so much money in the game.  The Os obviously can do it.

    If rebuilding means you have to drop your payroll down to sub $60 million I would argue that a small market team can't afford half their salary going to a player with a $30 payroll.

    As far as money goes, there is a bit of a bubble right now.  ESPN just drastically reduced the amount of money they pay in and dropped week day games.  While MLB can try and resell those games to a different outlet they likely can't do so for as much.  While TBS money went up with the new contract, overall economics have been hit by COVID, two small market teams don't have regional cable agreements and MLB overall reliance on cable is at risk.  The downfall of cable will be swift when it happens due to availability of a sufficient number of streaming options that meet the needs of current cable payers.

    Not to mention, younger generations statistically don't even consider cable and get their entertainment from bounce and binge streaming services.

    Now some of this is likely posturing from MLB due to contract negotiations with the players union.  I would not be surprised in the least if a week after the next CBA is signed MLB announces a deal with someone like Netflix for those weekday games ESPN gave up.  But thats still a two way street where MLB is having to straddle the streaming/cable delivery system amid waning interest in its game and some small market teams that are shaky ground to be sure.

    It will be interesting to see what happens come 2028 when these deals expire.

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