Jump to content
JTrea81

Offense, not pitching is going to be the key to 2011

Recommended Posts

Our defensive efficiency is .682, the second worst in the AL only topped by Minnesota who has the 2nd worst ERA in the AL.

The two certainly go hand in hand. Better defense will improve the pitching.

Our defense sucks.

But the defense has nothing to do with walks, K's, inability to miss bats and giving up homers.

The pitching is the biggest issue for the ML team and nothing is remotely close.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is there any evidence that bad pitching will contribute to a bad defensive efficiency? I know that would contradict batted ball and BABIP theory, but I am just curious.
I am not sure but as I pointed out, if you don't miss bats and increase the amount of balls put in play, your chances of making errors increases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am not sure but as I pointed out, if you don't miss bats and increase the amount of balls put in play, your chances of making errors increases.

If I weren't currently struggling to do well in med school, I would run a regression on team strikeout percentage and team defensive efficiency. Alas, a fascinating lecture on the GI tract awaits me...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I weren't currently struggling to do well in med school, I would run a regression on team strikeout percentage and team defensive efficiency. Alas, a fascinating lecture on the GI tract awaits me...

It stands to reason that worse pitchers would have higher LD%'s against, and thus more balls would go for hits and balls that can be fielded would be hit harder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It stands to reason that worse pitchers would have higher LD%'s against, and thus more balls would go for hits and balls that can be fielded would be hit harder.

Is this true, though? Doesn't BABIP theory suggest that pitchers can really only control K rate, BB rate, GB rate, and HR rate? I assume the defensive efficiency ratings are only taking GB/FB ratio into account.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You're referring to the original DIPS theory, not BABIP theory. In reality there's no such thing as BABIP theory. Actually the simplest form of DE is 1 minus BABIP.

Well that simple form of defensive efficiency is obviously wrong because it would reward teams with flyball prone staffs, right?

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk

Edited by square634

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well that simple form office defensive efficiency is obviously wrong bedside other would reward teams with flyball prone staffs, right?

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk

Office defensive efficiency? Is that the rating for the office line backer, when he gets out of the wrong side of the bed? :eek::rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No offense, but this makes no sense whatsoever. Whether you agree with it or not, here's BP's version (and pretty much the standard version) of Defensive Efficiency:

1 - ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR))

Sorry for the typos, serves me right for typing something from my phone while I was away from the computer. Autocorrect for the loss.

I guess my point is that fly balls are less likely to be hits than groundballs (this is IIRC, I could be wrong). Therefore a high flyball staff should produce a higher defensive efficiency. In that case, at least part of the defensive efficiency measurement is influenced by an aspect of pitching. (I'm not saying defense and pitching are easy things to isolate into independent factors, and I guess a flyball staff should have a higher ERA due to more home runs, regardless of the defensive efficiency).

I kind of hoped that there was a defensive efficiency that was normalized based on the percentage of outs made on each batted ball type (FB, LD, GB), in order to try to isolate the effects of the pitching staff. And of course even if you used that hypothetical stat, it would still ignore the possibility that Orioles pitchers give up batted balls at higher velocities, but that data will start to be used soon enough with the advent of Hit F/X and whatnot.

EDIT: And now I see that you already said that batted ball distribution matters and I missed it. Sorry about that. I guess I just don't like the idea of using that non-contextualized stat to say that the Orioles have the worst defense in the league.

Edited by square634

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody who believes that offense will win the games for us, not the pitching hasn't been watching enough O's games this year. It's obvious, pitching is the key to winning games. We need pitching. We have a good offense, our pitching is another story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Of course bad pitching will contribute to bad defensive efficiency - and that is not a contradiction to BABIP "theory."

Here's another thing that will contribute to good or bad defensive efficiency (DE) - batted ball distribution. Obviously a team that gives up a lot of line drives will have a lower DE than a team that doesn't. The same thing with a ground ball centric staff as compared to a fly ball centric staff.

You're referring to the original DIPS theory, not BABIP theory. In reality there's no such thing as BABIP theory. Actually the simplest form of DE is 1 minus BABIP.

I think we need to consider that the Orioles, annually, give a larger percentage of innings to non-MLB quality pitchers than other teams. DIPS theory says there is little difference between Major League Pitchers in BABIP. The O's give several hundred innings a year to pitchers who probably don't qualify. This year the O's gave about 100 MLB innings to pitchers with 5+ ERAs in the pitcher's paradise in Norfolk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2021 Minor League Depth Chart

2021 Prospect Power Rankings

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Total no-brainer. Hopefully this comes as actual housing owned by the teams in the minor league cities as opposed to a housing stipend provided to the players. Real estate is a fine investment for the team's investment portfolio and it is so difficult for the players to get anywhere near market rate trying to rent furnished apartments for less than 6 month terms (not to mention that they can be promoted, demoted or released at any time) that a housing stipend would be wildly inefficient. Teams know how many players will be at each level. Buy the real estate (or rent it for a full season's term) and allow the players to live there. When players change levels there will always be the correct amount of housing available. Don't make the players have to worry about it at all.
    • Stanley officially done for the year:    
    • In the case of the O's, broadcasters lose their jobs too.
    • This is something that should have been done a long time ago. Glad to see MLB stepping up to provide a better quality of life for their minor league farmhands.
    • So how hard is it to improve by at least 18 games, which is what it would take to get us to the 70 win level? The conventional wisdom is that such one season improvements are pretty rare, but I wondered how rare.   Here are all the 18+ game improvements in this century.   We can't do this for the last two years of course because 2020 records don't indicate much: 2001  Hou+21, Sea+25 2002 2003  KC+21, ChC+21 2004  Det+29, Tex+18, SL+20, SD+23 2005  Ariz+26 2006  Det+24 2007  Cle+18, ChC+18 2008  TB+31 2009  Sea+24, Colo+18 2010 2011  Milw+19, Ariz+29 2012  Balt+24, Oak+20, Wash+18, Cinc+18 2013  Bos+28, Cle+24 2014  Hou+19, LAA+20 2015  Tex+19, ChC+24 2016 2017  Minn+26, Ariz+24 2018  Oak+22, Atl+18 2019  Minn+23 So nearly every year, there is at least one team that improves by 18 or more.  Over a 19 year period there were 32 such improvements, and in more than half the years (12/19) there were at least two. So chances are pretty good that at least one major league team, and very possibly two, will make at least an 18 game improvement next year.   And of course it is more likely that those team(s) will come from the lower half of the league this year, given that it's much harder to improve that much on a team that's already good. Worth noting that only one team in the 21st century, the 2008 Rays, improved by 31 or more games which is what it would take to get us a winning record next year.
    • You seem to be implying that Manny was advised to have surgery on the second knee prospectively, and elected not to do it.   But I don’t recall that being reported.  
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...