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Elias Progress Thread

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are trying to use analytics to salvage their remaining $92 mm investment.    If it doesn’t work, he’ll eventually be cut.   

Lol.  Even if Davis somehow stopped being terrible with the lack of doing anything they would still be worst in league.  

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I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

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28 minutes ago, Natty said:

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

Trust the process or perish!  😇

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43 minutes ago, Natty said:

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

SSS, Service Time, Defensive Metrics, etc...

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1 hour ago, Natty said:

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

Is that all the information they have on those players or do they have years of statistics and scouting reports? Because what you’re suggesting is they only remember the last thing that happened.

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8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Is that all the information they have on those players or do they have years of statistics and scouting reports? Because what you’re suggesting is they only remember the last thing that happened.

They know that Mullins put up these numbers last year with 191 PA...235/.312/.359 and all of baseball knows now to run on his weak arm. 

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I asked Mike Elias how much service time hurdles played into the decision to option Austin Hays and Anthony Santander.

"Zero," he said.

"Not at all?"

"No," he said. "It's not even relevant." #Orioles

 
7
 
OK its not service time manipulation, and its not Analytics. What is it?

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23 hours ago, Natty said:

They know that Mullins put up these numbers last year with 191 PA...235/.312/.359 and all of baseball knows now to run on his weak arm. 

Mullins did this in 267 AAA PA, .267/.332/.425 and this in 218 AA PA, .313.362.512

Apples to apples at a level they all played at.

Mullins (218 PA AA) - .875 OPS

Hays (288 PA AA) - .703 OPS

Santander (222 PA AA) - .695 OPS

 

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21 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Mullins did this in 267 AAA PA, .267/.332/.425 and this in 218 AA PA, .313.362.512

Apples to apples at a level they all played at.

Mullins (218 PA AA) - .875 OPS

Hays (288 PA AA) - .703 OPS

Santander (222 PA AA) - .695 OPS

 

Huge difference compared to Spring Training this year. 

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2 minutes ago, Natty said:

Huge difference compared to Spring Training this year. 

Yeah, so you see how when taking larger chunks of information into consideration, some of these actions make more sense. 

I think Elias is probably pleasantly surprised with how Hays and Santander looked this spring (Hays especially looked like the top 50 prospect in baseball he was in 2017 once again, not just performance, but just the bat to ball skills and the quality of contact he was making). 

It's easy to get emotionally wrapped up in Hays's story and write off 2018 struggles as injury related or related to Buck's instructions to be more patient screwing up his approach. But if you just look at the data, even with a strong spring, it looks like a guy who needs AAA finishing school. Is Hays the best OF in the org right now? Possibly. But does it hurt anything to send him down and evaluate Mullins and Smith Jr against MLB pitching? I don't think it does, and maybe it helps Hays long term. 

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To that point, it could be that “scouting” is outside of “analytics” and “service time”. Mullins might be deemed a finished product with little room for improvement. He just may be a complete player with a low ceiling. Hays and Santander might need a little bit more time before there’s nothing else they can learn.

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On 3/18/2019 at 11:26 AM, Natty said:

Huge difference compared to Spring Training this year. 

Yeah, those stats mean a lot more than spring training stats. 

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1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Yeah, those stats mean a lot more than spring training stats. 

I think you have to put Hays’ stats into context because he was playing hurt.    The year before he posted a .960 OPS in 283 PA in AA, at an age 21 months younger than Mullins was in 2018.     I’d pretty much bet my bottom dollar that Hays will be a better major league hitter than Mullins.    The spring stats reinforce my belief but they aren’t the basis for it.   

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think you have to put Hays’ stats into context because he was playing hurt.    The year before he posted a .960 OPS in 283 PA in AA, at an age 21 months younger than Mullins was in 2018.     I’d pretty much bet my bottom dollar that Hays will be a better major league hitter than Mullins.    The spring stats reinforce my belief but they aren’t the basis for it.   

I too think Hays will be a better ML hitter than Mullins. I was mainly giving Natty some grief because he’s been pasting spring training stats into threads for several days. But the stats are still not very useful. Hays looked great, but all the caveats about SSS and standard spring training competition issues are still true. Super encouraging, but certainly not predictive. Rickard out hit Hays this spring but I don’t think you put much credence into that. That said, I am disappointed Hays didn’t make the starting roster. I think it’s irrelevant in the long run, but I want to see him play. Baseball is entertainment after all. 

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1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Baseball is entertainment after all. 

This is where many seem to get lost.  Just like actresses and actors, ballplayers need to make there way into the "STAR ROLE".

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