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Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think he's a scouting guy?

I'm pretty sure there current advertisements for scouts requires no experience and a BS degree....Most likely in statitics, economics or something similar.

I'm not saying he can't judge talent ...I'm saying he made a couple rookie GM mistakes! There is a huge difference

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4 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Oh come on. Your rant started with:

incompetent

Buffoon

a bigger idiot than I thought

You've only softened in terms of saying he doesn't know what he's doing, doesn't know how to make a trade, said more than he should have, he blew the trade market, and so on.

And you've repeated the same message not less than 50 times in the last week. Please, please give it a rest. 

I did the 1st three things when it was reported that he was placed on OUTRIGHT WAIVERS. As it turns out he did not do that! Its very unusual that such a tenured reporter would make that mistake.

And by my own admission only stopped when Tony-OH reminded me of the board rules!

I am convinced  he hurt Villar's value with the Sun statement! I am guy that has negotiated contracts in my career and I'm 49 in case your wondering. I have negotiated contracts in the intellectual property arena (music), purchased businesses, and have 20+ years of B2B sales experience. I know when a adversary in a contract negotiation makes a mistake and how to exploit it.

So when I tell you my opinion it is based on my vast experiences with that type of work. I could be wrong about what was offered at the trade deadline. One can only guess unless a reporter offered up insider information. Which obviously did not happen,

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4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I did the 1st three things when it was reported that he was placed on OUTRIGHT WAIVERS. As it turns out he did not do that! Its very unusual that such a tenured reporter would make that mistake.

And by my own admission only stopped when Tony-OH reminded me of the board rules!

I am convinced  he hurt Villar's value with the Sun statement! I am guy that has negotiated contracts in my career and I'm 49 in case your wondering. I have negotiated contracts in the intellectual property arena (music), purchased businesses, and have 20+ years of B2B sales experience. I know when a adversary in a contract negotiation makes a mistake and how to exploit it.

So when I tell you my opinion it is based on my vast experiences with that type of work. I could be wrong about what was offered at the trade deadline. One can only guess unless a reporter offered up insider information. Which obviously did not happen,

Maybe I should clarify. Let me be sure I have this right.

You're saying that immediately after the trade deadline, in an interview with the Sun, Elias said he's not going to tender Villar. Correct?

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you have a link to where Elias said this?    I don’t remember seeing it.    All I saw that Elias said was this:

“There’s seven guys and they’re good players, but there is money involved,” Elias said. “You’ve got to take it into consideration and it may influence the decision whether or not to tender a contract in the first place. But also your threshold for trading those guys if there’s interest elsewhere. That’s part of running any business and it’s part of reality.

“Money and budgets are a huge part of our business.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/winning-stays-on-back-burner-as-orioles-continue-transformation.html

I don’t interpret that as tipping anything.

 

Someone else quoted an article ...I can try to look back in the thread @weamsclosed for it.

 

 

Here are the interviews from the Sun paper after the deadline that I was mentioning

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-mike-elias-trade-deadline-20190802-w5mhsxyiojenbpyajrplgob47e-story.html

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-trade-deadline-mike-elias-20190802-ic62bmvsyrgnllilgbdvoxyqvy-story.html

Quote

The trade deadline came and went Wednesday afternoon without the Orioles moving a player from the major league roster, a decision executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said was based partly on the organization having no players it felt required to deal.

 

Cashner, though, was due to be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Orioles’ only other pending free agent is the injured Mark Trumbo. Villar is their only player beyond Trumbo whose not under team control after 2020.

 

Quote

We weren’t really pressured to move anyone right now because these guys who we have on the team are under control,” Elias said Thursday. “We are rebuilding and we’re at the beginning stage of that process, so any time we can take present value and convert it into future value, especially more future value, that’s gonna be attractive to us, and we just never felt like we got to that point in the equation.

 

So he basically wasn't considering nontendering Villar at that time or there would have been additional motivation to get a deal done,

 

Quote

“I think there were some moments where it looked like something might happen, but we didn’t get close in the sense of exchanging medical files or anything like that,” he said. “I’ve seen closer calls than what we had. We were extremely active both in terms of our preparation but also the levels of communication, but just did not end up pulling the trigger on anything that we felt was the right thing to do.”

 

So there were conversations that looked like they might happen. Do you still think he was being offered less than a 14 round fringe guy from Pepperdine? I don't..... Monday's trade was out of desperation to get anything at all!

 

Quote

“With any player, you have to gauge the different junctures where it might make more sense, if you are gonna move a guy, when to do that, and the trade deadline is just one opportunity for that,” Elias said. “Of course, there’s also the option of keeping these players on the team and growing with them and helping us win games.”

Quote

“We like these players,” Elias said. “They’re here. They’re young, too, and having them around is great. I value these guys, and we’re not gonna just trade them to trade them and say we traded guys and got a couple of names if we didn’t really believe in the names, if our scouting department didn’t believe in them. That can be kind of a quick high to get somebody who’s No. 17 on the MLB.com [organizational prospect] list, but if you don’t really believe that it’s for real, it’s not the right move. We’re gonna value these guys properly, and do the right thing by the organization.

 

 

Quote

Although teams made offers for the Orioles’ major league players, Elias said the offers didn’t include impact talent worth adding to that system at the cost of one of the organization’s major league pieces.

I added this for everyone to see....But based on the next quote ...If he were offered a blocked 26 year old would he have taken him?

 

Quote

The types of guys that we’re looking for are the types of guys people don’t like giving up these days, and that’s young players with maybe some more variability or risk ahead of them, but also more upside. It’s more common to get offers with guys that are on the 40-man roster already, or need to be protected prior to the Rule 5 draft, and things like that.

In terms of the Cashner trade, we had options like that, too, but we felt it made more sense for us to go as young as possible, even if we’re inviting much more risk, just to have some more upside. That was the kind of thing that we were looking for with these guys, too, because these are valuable players, and we have them for a couple of years at a minimum.

TO me this statement says it all! If he was offered blocked guys or Rule 5 eligible he passed passed on this statement

 

Quote

I want this team to win as many games as it possibly can. I want to pick as low in the draft as possible. That’s a good thing. We are not running around trying to stack up No. 1 picks. Now, we’re going to do our best to hit on the picks that we have, and it’s very likely as of right now that we’re going to have a very high pick next year, and probably the year after that. And we’re going to do our best with those. But that is not any part of our strategy, and in a lot of ways, sometimes picking No. 1 can be difficult in a year when there’s not a clear No. 1 because you feel a little boxed in with your options.

 

I'd argue that he's being less than honest! If you truly are trying to win as many as possible .... Nontendering  or trading your best player for a guy thats not even in the other top 30 ....But more like in the 45-60 range

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Someone else quoted an article ...I can try to look back in the thread @weamsclosed for it.

 

 

 

 

I did not close a thread. 

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3 minutes ago, weams said:

I did not close a thread. 

A thread on Villar was closed yesterday or the day before, though probably not by you.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Do you have a link to where Elias said this?    I don’t remember seeing it.    All I saw that Elias said was this:

“There’s seven guys and they’re good players, but there is money involved,” Elias said. “You’ve got to take it into consideration and it may influence the decision whether or not to tender a contract in the first place. But also your threshold for trading those guys if there’s interest elsewhere. That’s part of running any business and it’s part of reality.

“Money and budgets are a huge part of our business.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/winning-stays-on-back-burner-as-orioles-continue-transformation.html

I don’t interpret that as tipping anything.

 

Here is the post and it was posted by my Buddy @weams

 

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/analysis/schmuck/bs-sp-dumping-jonathan-villar-makes-sense-20191201-cdw4nlq6abgzpf5tqz6qs7ury4-story.html

Quote

Mike Elias made it pretty clear in late September that he isn’t interested in spending any real money for cosmetic victories

Quote

Elias is right that it makes no business sense to pay a guy $10 million or so to help you lose 90 or 100 games when he isn’t likely to be around when your rebuilding project (hopefully) blooms, but the same logic doesn’t provide quite the same justification for trading away Mancini.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/marlins-rumors-yasiel-puig-steven-souza.html

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Hottub: What do you think about the Orioles inability to get more than a fringe name for Villar? A tactical mistake or a true lack of interest at the predicted arb cost?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: Arb is pretty broken process for multiple reasons. The one that applies here is it forces you to pay average players with big bulk stats more than they’d get as FA, or with RP that rack up saves. If there was a big surplus value, it would’ve been reflected in the trade market.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-12-4-19/

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After taking time to cool off and reflect, it's simply clear that they only thing that mattered in this trade was the number 10, i.e., $10mil.  Villar was going to be gone by the end of the day Monday, and it didn't really matter to Elias whether something came back or not.  A bonus that he was able to get a fringe guy.  

Off the books:  Trumbo:  $13.5mil;  Villar:  projected $10mil; Bundy:  projected $5.7mil

Guess we can afford that Davis contract now.  Odds that Mancini is an Oriole on Thursday of next week?  After all, the only important number that he seems to present to Elias is projected $5.7 mil.

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20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hottub: What do you think about the Orioles inability to get more than a fringe name for Villar? A tactical mistake or a true lack of interest at the predicted arb cost?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: Arb is pretty broken process for multiple reasons. The one that applies here is it forces you to pay average players with big bulk stats more than they’d get as FA, or with RP that rack up saves. If there was a big surplus value, it would’ve been reflected in the trade market.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-12-4-19/

Villar at $10 million seems pretty reasonable. What did Josh Donaldson get? 23 million in arbitration.  If I were the owners I would give up a year of team control for modifications to arbitration. 

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Here’s a Fangraphs article lauding the trade from the Marlins’ standpoint.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-marlins-had-a-good-week/

I thought this perspective was interesting:

 

Since Villar is a free agent at the end of 2020, it’s almost a given that he will be shopped at the trade deadline. If he can provide similar value on the basepaths while maintaining offensive production around league-average, teams should want to trade for him in time for the pennant race. Aguilar isn’t a free agent until after the 2022 season, and while power-focused bats aren’t necessarily the most desired in today’s game, Miami will have options at the trade deadline, next offseason, and perhaps even beyond that. 

This reason is exactly why rebuilding teams should continue to add talent to their major league rosters. Neither Aguilar nor Villar have adverse effects on the Marlins’ long-term goals: International signing dollars and draft bonuses are capped — it’s not even as if teams can use their savings on big league talent elsewhere. Plus, the Marlins still won’t be good in 2020 and shouldn’t have to worry about falling outside of the top five in the draft order.

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On 12/4/2019 at 8:18 PM, weams said:

The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times.

I see the words "utility player" and assume he's not going to play everyday. So the Marlins, one of the first teams in baseball, don't think Villar's an everyday type of player? Very interesting...

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On 12/5/2019 at 10:02 AM, NCRaven said:

After taking time to cool off and reflect, it's simply clear that they only thing that mattered in this trade was the number 10, i.e., $10mil.  Villar was going to be gone by the end of the day Monday, and it didn't really matter to Elias whether something came back or not.  A bonus that he was able to get a fringe guy.  

Off the books:  Trumbo:  $13.5mil;  Villar:  projected $10mil; Bundy:  projected $5.7mil

Guess we can afford that Davis contract now.  Odds that Mancini is an Oriole on Thursday of next week?  After all, the only important number that he seems to present to Elias is projected $5.7 mil.

I was of this mindset all along, but to say that Elias didn't try to trade Villar for a better return and/or botched the trade is where I draw the line. I'm fairly confident that he's been shopping him since the start of the 2019 season and it's pretty clear that no one made him a solid offer, or Villar would have been traded mid-season. From what we've seen and heard, Elias has been very flexible in his trade demands. Top prospects...quantity over quality...whatever a team is willing to offer that he feels makes us better in the long run he'll consider. If there had been a better offer on the table he would have taken it.   

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