Take the safe pick at #2 or sign someone under slot?

[Jammer7]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Everything Elias has said has been hedged to some degree.    I think he’s likely to go BPA, but I won’t be surprised if he adopts an underslot strategy.    And I guarantee you that, no matter what he does, he will say he took the player he liked the best of the available choices, regardless of whether it’s true.   

This is where I’m at. He did not say he wouldn’t go underslot, not in the interviews I have seen. He said it would be difficult because of the limited number of rounds to potentially spread the savings out. In other words, if he misses the over slot candidates he wants at 30/39, then what does he do with the saved money. He would look bad to a point. 
And the GM speak of Elias is polished. It will be the BPA according to their board. 

[Spl51]

Kiley McDaniels latest mock draft has us taking Martin at 2, Bitsko at 30, and Jordan Westburg at 39. I would be ecstatic if we could do that, but I don't see how we can do that unless we go with a senior in the 4th and maybe even 5th.

[Daddy-O's]

36 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Kiley McDaniels latest mock draft has us taking Martin at 2, Bitsko at 30, and Jordan Westburg at 39. I would be ecstatic if we could do that, but I don't see how we can do that unless we go with a senior in the 4th and maybe even 5th.

Yes, give'm the Jay Flaa move

[jerios55]

On 6/8/2020 at 9:13 AM, weams said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-2/

The #2 slot is $7.8 mill and I previously saw an argument that suggested it would take 6-6.5mill (don't recall the link, probably a post on here).  Interesting to see this suggest as low as 4-4.5 million.  Is there a reason he would sign that low when it seems he is likely top 6?  Does he have a higher interest is Baltimore?

[jerios55]

16 hours ago, Yossarian said:

So he could fill in at 2B, 3B, LF or CF?  Plus hits for average, has a little pop and does not strike out?  Sounds like exactly the type of player we need. 

Just going on record.  He can't do them all at the same time. 

[weams]

Austin Martin is represented by Scott Boras. He will get close to, if not more than, slot. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Austin Martin is represented by Scott Boras. He will get close to, if not more than, slot. 

He'd be a fool to go back to school over a couple hundred thousand.

[hoosiers]

I don't think we can expect any more than $250k slot savings with Martin.

The question is what is Bitsko's number.  He will price himself out of the draft if he sticks at a number above $3M once out of the first round.  The Os pick at 30 has a slot of $2.4M.  I expect something can get done between those numbers.  

I think Westburg would sign for slot at 39.

My second question is whether there is going to be a resetting of bonus requests among guys who thought they would go on Day 1 but did not.  There may be more guys willing to take slot at 39 after the drafting tonight than entering tonight.  

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He'd be a fool to go back to school over a couple hundred 

Where is the bar you are setting between fool and principal? 200K?  500K.  Is 200K worth the acrimony it might cause in negotiations?

 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, jerios55 said:

The #2 slot is $7.8 mill and I previously saw an argument that suggested it would take 6-6.5mill (don't recall the link, probably a post on here).  Interesting to see this suggest as low as 4-4.5 million.  Is there a reason he would sign that low when it seems he is likely top 6?  Does he have a higher interest is Baltimore?

The article could have been worded better, IMO, but I think what Fangraphs is saying here is that, while it would be nice for the Orioles to sign Gonzales, Kjerstad, or Bailey at 4-4.5 million, it isn't very likely that they could, so drafting Martin makes more sense.  I agree that they aren't going to be able to get a guy anywhere near as good as Martin or Gonzales at $4 million. 

Elias said he would only take an "under-slot" guy if the Orioles actually had him rated as good or better than the consensus guys (Tork, Martin, and Lacy.)  I take that to mean that if they take Gonzales, it would be because the Orioles had him ranked right there with the big three. Or at least they will claim that they did.   As FRobby posted earlier, we can be pretty well sure that no matter who we take at #2, Elias will say that he's the guy that was at the top of our board when our turn to draft came up.  (Whether it is really true or not.)

One important aspect to this, IMO, is that the Orioles would have to have identified multiple potential over-slot guys at 30 in order to employ such a strategy.  To do so with just one certain guy in mind is way too risky, since that guy could very well be drafted by another team before we are on the clock at #30.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where is the bar you are setting between fool and principal? 200K?  500K.  Is 200K worth the acrimony it might cause in negotiations?

 

Autorenewing is going to cause more acrimony than the initial signing.

I said a couple hundred grand.

To me that isn't what Weams meant.

[weams]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where is the bar you are setting between fool and principal? 200K?  500K.  Is 200K worth the acrimony it might cause in negotiations?

 

It's Boras. He's gonna want acrimony.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

It's Boras. He's gonna want acrimony.

Maybe. I think Martin gets slot but Boras could be a pain and try for more. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe. I think Martin gets slot but Boras could be a pain and try for more. 

Witt, who was a high school player, signed for slot. I can't find anyone under the current agreement that signed for overslot that were picked this high.

As a college player with less leverage I'll be disappointed if they can't save a least 200K on this pick.

[NCRaven]

Word is that Martin considers himself the #1 prospect and wants 1.1 money.  If the Orioles think he's ultimately a second baseman and his bat is not much better than Gonzalez (already a solid second baseman), why not save and go bigger with #30 and #39?