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2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

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8 hours ago, baltfan said:

I think this is like every hit from this past year.  Gives you a good idea of the quality of the competition and his approach.

 

He looks to have decent speed for a power hitter. Safe at first on a bunt pretty much back to the pitcher.

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On 6/10/2020 at 8:40 PM, ArtVanDelay said:

The NFL does the draft so much better than MLB.  Manfred is so weird.

Yeah, Goodell is such a natural on camera. His fake hyping of the stupid crowds on the TV behind him were excruciatingly awkward.

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22 hours ago, baltfan said:

I think this is like every hit from this past year.  Gives you a good idea of the quality of the competition and his approach.

 

30 hits in 16 games!  Holy smokes.  Hits the ball hard to all fields.  I tell you what, watching him run, he doesn't look like the lumbering oaf some on this board would have you believe he is.

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21 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Matt Harrington?

Yes, this is who I thought.  Drafted #7 in 2000 draft.  Rockies offered $4 million, but he wanted $4.95.   Actually Boras wasn't his client then, but it was Tommy Tanzer.  Goes unsigned and re-enters the draft next year,  slipping to second round.   Padres offered $1.2 million. Tanzer was fired and Boras hired a few months into negotiation, but they still can't agree.      Boras wanted over $2 million.   Goes unsigned, enters into the Independent league, where he bombs going 2-6 with a 6.57 ERA.  Padres pull their offer after seeing the poor perfromance.  In 2002, drafted by Tampa Bay in the 13th round.   Offers up to $200k apparently, which he rebufffed. Reenters the draft, drafted in the 24th round by the Reds in 2003, who offered him maybe a few K.  Then drafted in the 36th round by the Yankees, who never even offered a contract.   According to Wikipedia, as of 2009 he was working in Costco tire center making  $11.50/hr.

Dude literally won the lottery, didn't feel it was enough money and rolled the dice for a even bigger payday, and came up snake eyes.  Twice. 

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17 hours ago, Number5 said:

30 hits in 16 games!  Holy smokes.  Hits the ball hard to all fields.  I tell you what, watching him run, he doesn't look like the lumbering oaf some on this board would have you believe he is.

Here’s what Fangraphs has to say:

“He's kept his big, 6-foot-3 frame lean and speedy during that time, relevant for the corner-only prospect because Kjerstad puts a lot of balls in play down both baselines and runs well enough to turn them all into extra bases.”

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?type=0&team=&sort=-1,1

 

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Kjerstad told the MLB Network in an interview this week that he improved as a hitter this season.

"That was my main thing going into the junior year ... I wanted to have a little bit better plate discipline, be more selective, get more walks and cut down on the strikeouts," Kjerstad told the network. "I knew that would help me reach a new level in my game, and I'll be honest, my freshman and sophomore years in college, I was a young 18- and 19-year-old, and I was trying to swing it and hit long balls just because.

"You dream about that as a kid, but I slowly started to realize, I don't have to swing too hard, I've just got to be on time and to the right pitch and it'll go. Me being more selective for this spring really helped me get off to the start I did, and I noticed a huge uptick in all parts of my game."

Maybe his improvement is real and sustainable.  He was good before, but if his changes were about to reveal a monster season in line with his early 2020 stats, then hopefully we'll forget about Martin soon enough.  Elias bet on it.  Getting in before industry opinion caught up and while he was potentially undervalued allowed the parlay in the later rounds.  Given the crap shoot that drafts always are, it seems a wise maneuver to hedge your bets like this when the stars align.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2020/jun/10/kjerstad-martin-try-for-ua-first/

Edited by Cavspider
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Not sure if this was mentioned but Elias and Sig put a high emphasis on USA baseball team results.  For the 2019 team:

kjerstad   Avg. 396.  Oba .426.  Slg 691.   Ops 1117  at bats  47

martin.              250/.          321 /      396.   Ops 717.  At bats 48

Maybe this is a good side by side comparison.

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:09 PM, RZNJ said:

Matt Harrington?

 

On 6/12/2020 at 8:48 PM, GuidoSarducci said:

Yes, this is who I thought.  Drafted #7 in 2000 draft.  Rockies offered $4 million, but he wanted $4.95.   Actually Boras wasn't his client then, but it was Tommy Tanzer.  Goes unsigned and re-enters the draft next year,  slipping to second round.   Padres offered $1.2 million. Tanzer was fired and Boras hired a few months into negotiation, but they still can't agree.      Boras wanted over $2 million.   Goes unsigned, enters into the Independent league, where he bombs going 2-6 with a 6.57 ERA.  Padres pull their offer after seeing the poor perfromance.  In 2002, drafted by Tampa Bay in the 13th round.   Offers up to $200k apparently, which he rebufffed. Reenters the draft, drafted in the 24th round by the Reds in 2003, who offered him maybe a few K.  Then drafted in the 36th round by the Yankees, who never even offered a contract.   According to Wikipedia, as of 2009 he was working in Costco tire center making  $11.50/hr.

Dude literally won the lottery, didn't feel it was enough money and rolled the dice for a even bigger payday, and came up snake eyes.  Twice. 

This is literally my brothers name.  I'll have to let him know he is now the 2nd dumbest Matt Harrington I know!

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The dude can rake. He hit that bomb at the Astro’s ballpark to straight away CF off of a tough LHP from Texas. The Texas pitcher seems legit. His team USA stats are great as well.  A good direct comparison to Martin and Torkelson, but SSS. 
 

Feeling better about this pick and our draft as a whole. 

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On 6/12/2020 at 1:52 PM, Number5 said:

30 hits in 16 games!  Holy smokes.  Hits the ball hard to all fields.  I tell you what, watching him run, he doesn't look like the lumbering oaf some on this board would have you believe he is.

 

On 6/13/2020 at 7:11 AM, Frobby said:

Here’s what Fangraphs has to say:

“He's kept his big, 6-foot-3 frame lean and speedy during that time, relevant for the corner-only prospect because Kjerstad puts a lot of balls in play down both baselines and runs well enough to turn them all into extra bases.”

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?type=0&team=&sort=-1,1

 

I believe it's the 5th hit of that clip, he lays down a bunt and tears down the line for a base hit.

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On 6/17/2020 at 9:38 AM, BohKnowsBmore said:

Trying to find comps/think of potential outcomes. Thoughts on the below?

Worst: Bust, doesn't make it to the show

Bad: Larry Bigbie

Mid-level: David Murphy / Joc Peterson

Good: Jay Bruce / Andre Ethier

Great: Larry Walker (with less speed/steals, though)

Slight revision... with rough outcome percentages...

Trying to find comps/think of potential outcomes. Thoughts on the below?

Worst (F): Bust, doesn't make it to the show (~10% probability)

Bad (D): Larry Bigbie (~20%)

Mid-level (C): David Murphy / Joc Peterson (~30%)

Good (B): Jay Bruce / Andre Ethier (~30%)

Great (A): Darryl Strawberry / David Justice(~9%)

Amazing (A+): Larry Walker (with less speed/steals, though) (~1%)

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On 6/18/2020 at 1:43 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

Slight revision... with rough outcome percentages...

Trying to find comps/think of potential outcomes. Thoughts on the below?

Worst (F): Bust, doesn't make it to the show (~10% probability)

Bad (D): Larry Bigbie (~20%)

Mid-level (C): David Murphy / Joc Peterson (~30%)

Good (B): Jay Bruce / Andre Ethier (~30%)

Great (A): Darryl Strawberry / David Justice(~9%)

Amazing (A+): Larry Walker (with less speed/steals, though) (~1%)

History of second overall picks

Looking at historical second overall picks, between 1965 and 2010, there were 43 picks who signed with the team that drafted them. Of those 43 picks, they were distributed as follows, by bWAR (buckets roughly correlated with comps above):

1 or less WAR: 11 (26%)
1 - 5 WAR: 6 (14%)
5 - 15 WAR: 10 (23%)
15 - 25 WAR: 9 (21%)
25 - 40 WAR: 4 (9%)
40+ WAR: 3 (7%)

Worth noting that there are a few active players in the sample who could feasibly change the distribution (e.g., James Taillon, currently at 8.2 WAR and only 28). Also, some pretty strong resumes in the 2011 - 2016 cohort, including Byron Buxton (9.8 WAR), Kris Bryant (23.9 WAR), Alex Bregman (22.4 WAR), and Nick Senzel (0.6 WAR with a 2019 debut).

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